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FMIA Week 18: Buffalo’s $4-Million Division Title and Green Bay’s 10-Percent Playoff Bid

Week 18 recap: AFC, NFC playoff brackets lock in
Mike Florio, Devin McCourty, Jason Garrett, Matthew Berry and Steve Kornacki dive into Week 18 and take an early look ahead to the playoffs, as well as what the future holds for Bill Belichick.

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla.—“How about that?” Bills GM Brandon Beane said in the winners’ locker room 20 minutes after midnight this morning. “Start of the day, we could have been the 2 or 8 seed—home for the playoffs or no ticket to the dance. And this happens. Crazy.”

What happened is despite losing to the Jets and Patriots and Broncos, despite firing the offensive coordinator in November, despite being the AFC’s 10th seed as December dawned, despite vital defensive pieces Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano being lost for good in midseason, and despite Josh Allen turning it over three times in the Bills’ first six series Sunday and Allen throwing short of the end zone with no timeouts as the first-half clock expired and that is one heck of a list of “despites” the Buffalo Bills won the AFC East at Hard Rock Stadium and earned the 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. Two home playoff games, in other words, if they win the first Sunday against the Steelers.

What a long, strange trip it’s been.

“Four more,” Stefon Diggs said to Beane walking out of the locker room. “Gotta get four more.”

Four more would win the Super Bowl. Four wins over, let’s say, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Baltimore and the best the NFC has to offer (San Francisco? Dallas?) in Super Bowl LVIII. Of course, the Bills have been close to that before, so let’s not go there just yet.

But Buffalo is one of the three or four most dangerous teams in the tournament, warts and all. The quarterback turns it over too much, but the quarterback is one of the best players in the sport, and time after time he makes up for an unwise throw by throwing his body over the first-down stripe or throwing a beautiful ball 60 yards downfield. I can tell you this: Josh Allen’s teammates and his coach love him, and the levels of that love shone through with 3:12 to go Sunday night. Buffalo up 21-14, trying to bleed the clock, two more first downs win the game. But it was third-and-13 at the Buffalo 34-, and if they failed to convert, Miami would get the ball back with plenty of time to tie the score.

Allen rolled right. It looked like he never intended to throw the ball. Now it was big-play time in Firebaugh, Calif., as a kid, or at Wyoming as a collegian, and Allen wanted the ball in his hands. He always does in the big moments. So he turned upfield and ran.

“That,” Allen told me on the field afterward, “is a situation where coach [Sean McDermott] is screaming, ‘Get down!’ and ‘Slide!’”

“No I wasn’t,” McDermott told me. “There’s no stopping him when he’s of that mindset. He knew what was on the line—everything. He was going to run through a brick wall for the first down right there.”

Allen continued. “Understanding how the game was going, I had to put the shoulders down. Had to find a way to get the first. I love to get that first down.”

I said to Allen, “You’re the type of guy, not that you don’t trust your teammates. But you trust yourself to make that play, to get those 13 yards.”

“Absolutely,” Allen said. “I want the ball in my hands at the end of the game. That’s how it’s been for my entire career. That’ll never change.”

Boldface Names

Other boldface names/news items on the last weekend of the regular season:

Who kidnapped the Eagles? This is the one of the weirdest collapses I’ve seen in 40 years covering the NFL.

Matthew Stafford finally plays a playoff game in Detroit. Just not for the Lions.

So Jordan Love. This, quite possibly, is the best quarterback in the NFC in the last half of the season. The Pack’s 6-2, and Love’s thrown 18 touchdowns to one pick in those eight games.

21.68. Three days after turning 30, that was Derrick Henry’s top speed on his 69-yard run in what could be his last game as a Titan in Nashville. That’s the seventh-fastest time for an NFL player this season. At 30! At 247 pounds!

Derrick Henry is one of the players I’ve admired most in my life covering the league. Sunday just put an exclamation point on that.

Coaching: Falcons announced Arthur Smith’s firing at midnight, Ron Rivera’s gone in Washington, Bill Belichick is likely out in New England, Antonio Pierce (5-4 as an interim) looks like he’ll get the gig in Vegas unless Mark Davis can get in the Harbaugh or Belichick derbies. Adam Schefter thinks there’s a cloud over the Titans and Mike Vrabel. (Gotta keep him, Titans.) Dennis Allen should stay with staff changes. So the openings are Washington, the Chargers, Carolina, Atlanta and New England. That’s five. I doubt it stops at five.

Arthur Smith, you picked a very bad time to lose four of your last five. These things happen when a franchise hitches its wagon to Desmond Ridder. Plus, the worst trait for any coach is to be stagnant, and that’s what the Falcons were under Smith.

Great note, Akash: On social media, this Akash had the note of the day:
Falcons under Arthur Smith
2021: 7-10, 8th overall pick
2022: 7-10, 8th overall pick
2023: 7-10, 8th overall pick

T.J. Watt wins the sack title (19.0), giving him 96.5 in 104 regular season games and he capped his year with a smothering two-sack performance at Baltimore before leaving with a strained knee. What a tough Defensive Player of the Year contest this will be, but Watt’s going to be hard to beat.

AFC North division records: Steelers 5-1, Ravens 3-3, Browns 3-3, Bengals 1-5. Football is a funny game.

Be proud, Texans. No team was as lightly regarded entering the season. Now they’ve got a home playoff game. Football is the funniest game.

“Team decision.” What kind of control of his team does Dennis Allen have if his backup quarterback, citing a “team decision,” changes a play and runs up the score in the process, enraging and embarrassing the opposition?

Jaguars. Frauds.

Trevor Lawrence, 0-5 down the stretch. And a bad end in Nashville Sunday. At some point, the heat, rightfully, lands on Lawrence for the 9-8 Jaguars blowing an absolute gimme playoff spot.

Baker Mayfield, I raise a glass to you. Seventeen starts, gritting teeth through injury after injury, 4,044 yards, 28 TDs, a division title. Fantastic comeback. You deserve a new deal in Tampa.

This Amon-Ra St. Brown. The 17th receiver picked in 2021. Rookie year: 90 catches. Year two: 106. This year: 119. The 17th wideout in a draft, averaging 105 catches a year. What a pick, Brad Holmes.

Bill Belichick. Man, that was weird after his last game, presumably, as Patriots coach. He covered his face post-game so all that was visible, barely, was his eyes. Yeah. Weird.

Sept. 21, 1975. Baltimore Colts at Chicago Bears. First NFL game for two names of note: Bill Belichick, 23, rookie coach on Colts’ staff, and Walter Payton, 22, rookie back on Bears. This one would not go down in Payton’s time capsule.

Sports quiz! On the day Belichick was introduced as HC of the NEP, who was the coach of the Boston Celtics?

The Sanchize, with a great story of how his first success against Belichick’s Patriots came when he made a big mistake. “Knowing too much can almost paralyze you against them.”

Meet Kobie Turner, DROY candidate. He’ll never forget the gameball that was not his gameball.

Hmmmm, Bryce Young. Remember the questions about his durability and size and how he’d get squashed like a mosquito at 5-10 and 204? Games played by rookie QBs picked in the top 50: Young 16, C.J. Stroud 15, Will Levis 9, Anthony Richardson 4. Young (509) with the most attempts too.

Isaac Seumalo, I saw that block of Justin Madubuike. Block of the week. One of the blocks of the year.

Now for the rest of the story of week 18, including a rollicking game 272.

Buffalo’s 48th Men

So Allen’s a big-play machine, of course. But I thought the Bills won this game because of the flotsam and jetsam of their complete roster. And it’s why they may be able to withstand a big injury or two, even though they’ve already done so.

Bill Parcells used to spend so much time churning the bottom of his roster. Back in his days coaching the Giants, even when the Giants were winning big, he’d have director of pro scouting Tim Rooney bring in four or six or eight players for workouts Monday and Tuesday, just so the team could have an updated “Ready List” of players weekly if injuries struck. I asked him why he was so paranoid about the depths of the roster. “Because every year you’re going to have games decided by the 48th player on the roster,” he said. “You want to devote time to finding the best players possible down there. They’re crucial to success.”

The Buffalo contributors Sunday night:

  • Cornerback Christian Benford, a sixth-round pick in 2022, picked off a Tua Tagovailoa throw targeting Tyreek Hill on the first series of the game. Benford’s salary: $870,000.
  • Wide receiver Trent Sherfield, the former Dolphin, Buffalo’s fifth receiver, was playing significant snaps because Gabe Davis went down with a leg injury. With four minutes left in the first half, Allen fired a pass toward Sherfield in the end zone. It ricocheted off a helmet high into the air and looked like it might go out of the end zone. Sherfield caught the ball as he fell out of the end zone, each foot barely staying in contact with the ground. Touchdown. Sherfield’s salary: $1.42 million.
  • Returner Deonte Harty brought back a punt 96 yards early in the fourth quarter, knotting the game at 14. Harty’s salary: $2 million.
  • Receiver Khalil Shakir, with the score still tied at 14 midway through the fourth quarter, took an Allen pass 28 yards to the Miami three-yard line, setting up the winning touchdown. Shakir’s salary: $870,000.
  • Running back Leonard Fournette played a different Lenny than he has in his NFL life. On fourth-and-one with four minutes left at the Buffalo 35-yard line, the December free-agent signee grabbed Allen from behind and, in his personal Tush Push, thrusted Allen forward for a two-yard gain and the first down. “This is a different role,” Fournette said post-game. “I’m older. Just anything I can do to give us a chance to help us win a game.” Fournette’s partial season salary: $289,400.

Those five players—total salary: $4.17 million—were crucial in Buffalo winning the AFC East Sunday night.

“It says a lot about our team,” Allen said. “Those guys, some of them, might be a little frustrated about their roles or their playing time. But you don’t see them upset. You just see them with the attitude of, ‘What can I do to help us win?’”

Vital trait for a championship team.

“It’s a hard ingredient to find anymore,” McDermott said. “Good teams have that. The good teams I’ve been on have that. But it’s a hard trait to find.”

Last point about the 2023 Bills: You can find fault with Allen and his penchant for turnovers. But this team will go as far as Allen takes them. There’s not a single guy in that locker room who begrudges Allen for taking the game into his hands in the fourth quarter, figuring he trusts himself more than he trusts anyone to make a play with the game on the line. It’s a gift to have that quarterback. It’s the gift that gives Buffalo a good chance in every game it plays for the rest of this season, and for seasons to come.

On 2024

Topics of note as the sun sets on the NFL’s 104th regular season:

1. Jordan Love arrives.

What would you think if I told you that Jordan Love in 2023 was a 10-percent improvement over Aaron Rodgers in 2022? If you love the Packers, would you have signed up for that Labor Day weekend? Of course you would. Let’s examine Rodgers last year versus his successor this year:

love chart.PNG

I remember going to training camp last summer. David Bakhtiari, a great friend of Rodgers, told me I was going to love Love. “Just watch,” he said. I did watch, and Love was largely mediocre through the first half of the season. Love, however, led Green Bay to the playoffs with a 6-2 finish to the season. And with these amazing numbers: 18 touchdown passes, one interception. He did it with a new crew of receivers and tight ends: Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Bo Melton, Dontayvion Wicks at receiver, and Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft at tight end. All seven have come to the Packers in the past 20 months.

There aren’t many franchises in football who would draft a quarterback when they have an MVP-caliber one on the roster with a good three or four years left. Green Bay GM Brian Gutekunst did. That’s because the Pack is a continuum. And when Love got comfortable in this job and with these players, he began to flourish. That’s why the 9-8 Packers will be going to Dallas with a puncher’s chance to beat the mighty Cowboys Sunday afternoon.

“I’m so happy for these guys,” coach Matt LaFleur said from Green Bay Sunday night. “In this world of social media these days, it’s hard to block out all the negatives. And there were a lot of negatives early in the season. But the growth in these players from the start of the season has been incredible. Even when it was tough, these guys loved coming to work every day. It’s great when you’re young—all you want to do is attack the next game. Their ability to weather the storm has been great.

“And Jordan—so poised. It’s not something you can coach. It’s how he was raised. It’s so fun to come to work with a positive person like him every day. As the season went on, the trust between us really increased. I trust that when I call a bad play, he’s going to get us out of it. That’s a huge thing for a quarterback.”

We all thought after three decades of quarterback greatness with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, there’d be a drop-off with Love. It’s only one year, yes. But Love’s poise and ability, particularly getting to know this new group of sub-25 receivers, has been remarkable to watch. The Cowboys might have a game on their hands this weekend.

2. Draft notes

Now that we know the draft order, a few opening salvos:

The Bears, at 1, should be able to get a 2022-like ransom for the pick with so many good quarterbacks in the pool. I expect GM Ryan Poles to trade the pick, but it’s too early to say that with certainty.

Washington, at 2, will get a potential franchise quarterback if it stays, and something slightly less lucrative if the new Commanders brain trust trades down.

New England, at 3, should probably be happy with a slight trade-down and a Michael Penix type. That all depends, of course, on who’s making that call for New England in this (we think) next era of Patriots football.

As for teams anxious to deal up for a quarterback, let’s see if Minnesota, at 11, moves aggressively to sign Kirk Cousins (I doubt it). Then it’s Denver at 12, Vegas at 13, Seattle at 16 (I bet Seattle tries to move up) in the derby for young quarterbacks.

3. Derrick Henry epitomizes greatness.

After rushing for 153 yards in Tennessee’s upset of the Jaguars Sunday—likely his last game as a Titan in Nashville—Derrick Henry did something rarely seen in the NFL. He took a microphone and told the fans what they’ve meant to him. “I hope I was an inspiration to all the young kids. Thank you for the greatest eight years of my life,” Henry said.

That’s who Derrick Henry is. He’s the kind of superstar who doesn’t realize he’s a superstar, who acts like he’s the 43rd player in the roster in ethos, attitude and work ethic. And judging by this game—if we assume he’s done in Tennessee, which probably won’t want to pay a 30-year-old running back real money in free agency—I would strongly urge teams in the league to watch the tape of this game. Watch his 69-yard run. Henry recorded the seventh-fastest time by a ball-carrier this season, per Next Gen Stats. Think of that. The man weighs 247 and runs like a scatback.

We spoke postgame, and Henry dripped gratitude. “I remember getting drafted here and talking to Eddie George,” Henry said from Nashville. “He told me you get to the league, then before you know it, you’re in year four, then you get to year eight and you wonder where the time goes. It’s really all come full circle for me here.”

The other part of Sunday, other than Henry saying a dripping goodbye (if indeed he’s not re-signed, and it’s headed that way), was the significance of where the day left him on the all-time rushing list. Henry began the day in 38th place on the list, 58 yards behind Earl Campbell. You might have to be a fan of a certain age to understand this, but 40 years ago, Earl Campbell was the Derrick Henry of the NFL, a 232-pound fearless defense-wrecker. The fact that Henry blew past Campbell with his 153 yards and exits this season with 9,502 yards to Campbell’s 9,407 left Henry nearly in awe of what he’d achieved. “That one means the world to me,” Henry said. “When I started getting into football, I’d watch video of Earl and I thought he was the best in the world. I remember one play when he bowled two guys over and he almost got his shirt ripped off and he just kept going. That’s a running back. Nothing stopped him.”

Whatever the future holds for Henry, there’s a kid—and there may be legions of them—who will watch Henry in his prime and think, That’s a running back. Nothing stopped him.

4. Re: the 2024 schedule

Six interesting matchups of 2024, at first glance:

  • Kansas City at San Francisco. Marquee game—if KC can add a receiver or three this offseason.
  • Dallas at San Francisco. If the Cowboys and Niners meet in the playoffs this year, this will mean the Cowboys will make four trips to Santa Clara in 23 months to play their NFC tormentors.
  • Houston at Kansas City. First of what we can only hope are many Stroud-Mahomes matchups.
  • Dolphins at Packers. Tua at Lambeau is cool. The Packers, with rising-star Jordan Love, could be to 2024 what the Lions were to 2023, so I wanted to get them in here.
  • Baltimore at Kansas City. Lamar Jackson is 1-3 against Patrick Mahomes.
  • San Francisco at Buffalo. First Niners trip to western New York in the Shanahan era, and of course the first Brock Purdy-Josh Allen duel.
  • Houston at Dallas. Texans and Cowboys should play annually, not once every four years. Dak-Stroud will be fun.

5. Gen Next, offensive coordinators

While the world will focus on the next crop of head coaches, and rightfully so, I’ve spent some time on the phone asking people: Who are the next coordinators who could turn around struggling offenses? When I asked the question, I got a wide variety of opinions, but I’ve culled those opinions down to the nine I think might get looks as a few teams—Pittsburgh, Washington, New England, Chicago, New Orleans, Las Vegas, Atlanta, the Chargers—could change coordinators (and head coaches in some spots) over the next six weeks. Not surprisingly, there are Shanahan/McVay/LaFleur fingerprints over many of these guys. In alpha order:

Brian Fleury, 43, tight ends coach, San Francisco. Unknown outside the Niners, valued highly inside the building as the run-game authority trusted by Kyle Shanahan. You get points with Shanahan for knowing the complete game, and Fleury has been a linebackers coach, director of football research, quality control coach and assistant position coach in his NFL years. Shanahan will not want to lose him.

Jerrod Johnson, 35, QB coach, Houston. There can’t be a coach who has packed as much football education into a young life as Johnson has. He was in 10 pro camps in six seasons after going undrafted as a QB out of Texas A&M, and worked for three NFL teams before DeMeco Ryans made him the mentor to C.J. Stroud this year. Diligent and prepared. Might be a year too early, but he’ll be very impressive if interviewed, I’m told.

Klint Kubiak, 36, pass-game specialist, San Francisco. The Shanahan/Kubiak tree has many branches, but this is the first year Klint, son of longtime coach Gary Kubiak, has coached for a Shanahan, and he’s part of why Brock Purdy has had such a good year. He’s had a diverse run in the league for such a young coach, including play-calling last year down the stretch in Denver, after Nathaniel Hackett was fired. Cerebral, like his dad.

Charles London, 48, QB coach/pass-game coordinator, Tennessee. A student of the run game who now has coached quarterbacks in Atlanta and Tennessee. Probably unfair to judge Tennessee’s passing game this year in a season of immense transition, but London’s work with Will Levis to get him to play well early is a credit to him. Well-respected as a teacher and idea person.

Tee Martin, 45, quarterbacks coach, Baltimore. Has all the experience you’d want—fifth-round pick of the Steelers in 2000, journeyman pro QB for six years, coached at four colleges (USC offensive coordinator in 2016-’18), QB coach of Lamar Jackson under Todd Monken this year. Jackson loves him, and Ravens credit Martin as well as Monken for Jackson’s rise this year. Great credibility with players, and knows a lot of offenses.

Justin Outten, 40, running backs coach/run-game coordinator, Tennessee. Interesting career path after being a center for Syracuse two decades ago. Entered the league in 2016 as a coaching intern under Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta, then worked for Matt LaFleur, also off the Shanahan/McVay tree, in Green Bay for three years before Nathaniel Hackett hired him as OC in Denver last year. Now rebuilding his rep under Mike Vrabel. Bright and experienced.

Jake Peetz, 39, pass-game specialist, L.A. Rams. “He’ll win every interview,” one peer told me. Former QB coach of the Raiders and Panthers, former offensive analyst for Nick Saban at Alabama, former OC at LSU. Well-respected by Sean McVay in his two years with the Rams. What impressed me is Puka Nacua telling me in October that he learned the Rams’ offense in long early-morning sessions with Peetz in May and June. Imaginative guy.

Dan Pitcher, 36, QB coach, Cincinnati. Former small-college quarterback who worked his way up the ladder the hard way. Bengals credit Pitcher’s detail-oriented teaching for getting Jake Browning ready to be such a solid contributor late this season after the injury to Joe Burrow. Also has served as the Bengals’ game-management specialist, so he knows more than X’s and O’s. Being in only one system may impact his chances, but I’ve heard excellent things about Pitcher.

Zac Robinson, 37, QB coach/pass-game coordinator, L.A. Rams. Might follow in the footsteps of Houston offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, who spent three seasons working for analytics firm PFF before beginning his six-year run with San Francisco. Robinson worked for PFF as a senior analyst before coming to the Rams in 2019. Four years soaking up Sean McVay’s knowledge and daily work with Matthew Stafford make him an interesting candidate.

Who is Kobie Turner?

Eight days ago, after the Rams hung on for a playoff-clinching 26-25 win over the Giants, coach Sean McVay gave a gameball to the Rams’ best player, defensive tackle Aaron Donald, for his two-sack performance. Donald took the ball, waved, was grateful then walked to rookie defensive tackle Kobie Turner’s locker. “This is yours,” the three-time Defensive Player of the Year said to Turner, tossing him the ball. “Your gameball.” Understandable. It was a career day for Turner—2.5 sacks, two tackles for loss, three quarterback hits—in the midst of a great six-game run since Thanksgiving: seven sacks, six tackles for loss. Turner’s become an irreplaceable piece of the Rams’ defensive front.

Why? This emoji has much to do with it: 🔥

More about that emoji in a moment. The Rams are hoping for the daily double this year. Two rookies, wide receiver Puka Nacua and Turner, are in contention to win the Offensive and Defensive rookie of the year awards. The awards have been won by teammates only three times previously in the 57 years that the league has awarded separate awards for rookies: 1967 (Detroit running back Mel Farr and cornerback Lem Barney), 2017 (New Orleans cornerback Marshon Lattimore and running back Alvin Kamara), and 2022 (Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner and receiver Garrett Williams).

But Nacua and Turner are stunning exceptions to the rule. Four of those six twin rookie winners were first-round picks, with Kamara, at 67, being the lowest overall pick. It’s a different story with the Rams. Turner, from Wake Forest, was a third-round pick, 89th overall; Nacua was a fifth-rounder out of BYU, 177th overall. It’s amazing that the two rookie winners could come from such modest draft positions.

Nacua’s story is well-known now. Book worm who studied hard and learned the offense early. Took advantage of Cooper Kupp’s absence to make himself irreplaceable to Matthew Stafford. Trustworthy enough to put up the best numbers ever by a rookie receiver—105 catches, 1,486 yards.

But Turner—he’s a mystery. He lasted till the 89th pick because he was smallish (6-2, 288) for a nose tackle, with the dreaded “short arms” many teams shy away from in the draft. Rams GM Les Snead, though, has pounded into his staff that because they haven’t had a lot of high picks (no first rounders since 2016, only three of 14 picks in 2023 in the top 120), they’ve got to hit on some middle and lower picks every year, emphasizing outstanding traits. Turner, who walked on at Richmond before transferring to Wake Forest for the 2022 season, had a meh college career, but the Rams loved how he played every play like it was his last. Snead said some of the Ram evaluators he trusts most—Ray Farmer, Ted Monago, Marty Barrett—loved Turner’s potential for disruption.

Lions' defense must make a 'statement' vs. Rams
The FNIA crew looks ahead to the biggest keys for the Rams and Lions in their Super Wild Card Weekend matchup, where Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff meet in a highly-anticipated matchup.

Snead is big on the collaborative process in scouting college players, and that extends to the front office. In the 2015 draft, Snead was a young GM and had a defensive tackle, Grady Jarrett, graded higher than the league consensus. Snead waited and waited—and lost Jarrett to the Falcons in the fifth round. Turner reminded Snead of Jarrett. And before this draft, Snead told club president Kevin Demoff: “Make sure you remind me not to pass on Grady Jarrett again.”

So as the third round was winding down, Snead was thinking of trading pick 89 down into the fourth round to acquire more picks. “I’ve got one job,” Demoff said. “Remember not to pass on Kobie Turner.” Snead bypassed the trade and picked Turner at 89.

One more thing. Snead’s a 21st-Century GM. He likes the Gen Z bells and whistles. He gives his scouts, when they write reports, the option of adding emojis to their reports about their love or hate of players—so that if they’re not in the room when the report is read, their attitude will be felt. Well, 13 of 14 Rams scouts who wrote reports on Turner included the fire emoji, which, literally, in Rams’ scouting parlance means Pound the table to make this player a Ram. Thirteen of 14 scouts pounding the table—swayed Snead too.

I told the fire-emoji story to Turner the other day. “That makes complete sense,” he said. “Because when I got here, I get the feeling that I was really wanted. Really, this was the perfect place for me. I’ve studied Aaron since I was in high school. It was an absolute dream of mine to play alongside him.”

Turner’s first eight games—one sack, two pressures—were mediocre. The second half of his season has been superb. “Early on, I felt like a rookie and played like a rookie,” he told me. “Now working with AD all day every day, working with the coaches, my confidence has grown. I feel like I belong.”

The defensive rookie award probably comes down to Turner and fellow DT Jalen Carter of the Eagles. While Turner has raised his game in recent weeks, Carter has cooled, with just two sacks and 11 tackles in the last seven games. It looks like the 50 national media voters for the post-season awards might be down to Nacua versus C.J. Stroud on offense (Stroud finished with a flourish Saturday night, with a playoff-enabling win over Indy) and Carter versus Turner on defense.

Per Next Gen Stats, Turner leads all rookie defensive tackles with 626 snaps and 34 run stops. He is fourth in pressures by rookies, with 43, one behind Carter, who has had little impact against the run. So it’s a horserace. And Houston’s Will Anderson, the leader among all rookie edge players with 57 pressures, is a factor in the defensive rookie race as well. Anderson and Carter were top 10 picks, while Turner had to make up a lot of ground to be in the chase with them.

“In a way,” Snead said, “it’d be good for the NFL if Kobie and Puka won. It’d make the point that, wow, you can be in the third or fifth round and win rookie of the year.”

The Belichick Section

Ten points to know

We can’t know for sure until Robert and Jonathan Kraft have their post-season meeting with Bill Belichick, but signs point to Sunday being Belichick’s last game as coach of the Patriots. The two sides have had enough of each other, and there’s a strong feeling around the league that the Krafts want a fresh start. Ten salient points about his football life and times:

1. Belichick turns 72 in April. If he chooses to come back to coach, likely for another franchise, he’d join George Halas (age 72 in his last season, 1967) as the oldest of the all-time greats to do it. Don Shula, the all-time-winningest coach, was 65 in his last year, 1995. Tom Landry bowed out at 64, Curly Lambeau at 55, Paul Brown at 67. The way coaches take care of themselves now, Belichick seems to have two or three more years, easily, if he chooses and if there’s a team that wants him.

2. Belichick has 333 career victories, including playoff games. Shula won 347 games. That means Belichick needs 15 wins to pass Shula. You’d think he could get at least 15 wins in two seasons, assuming he coaches in a place with a better quarterback situation than the current one in New England.

3. After Tom Brady left the team, Belichick has gone 30-38 in the last four seasons in New England. He failed to develop both a quarterback and a modern offense. Post-Brady, he’s had one winning season and zero playoff wins. H/T to The Athletic for this: Of the 24 players Belichick drafted in the first three rounds between 2014 and 2020, none has been signed to second contracts with the team. That’s an astoundingly poor drafting resume of Belichick.

4. Number of head coaches in the 21st Century in the AFC East: Miami 11, Buffalo 10, Jets 7, New England 1.

5. If Belichick coaches in 2024, it will be his 50th season as an NFL coach.

6. In his first 49 seasons, he has been a special assistant (1975, Baltimore), assistant special-teams coach (1976, Detroit; 1978, Denver), receivers coach (1977, Detroit), special-teams coach (Giants, 1979-’84), linebackers coach (Giants, 1980-’84), defensive coordinator (Giants, 1985-’90; Jets, 1997-’99), defensive backs coach (1996, New England), and head coach (Cleveland, 1991-’95; New England, 2000-’23). Eight different areas/positions, from a gopher under Ted Marchibroda to the coach and czar for the last 24 seasons. Plus, one more head-coaching job, for one day in 2000 with the Jets; the next day, he resigned as head coach of the Jets.

7. In 1975, as an assistant on the Colts’ staff, the first game of the season was the NFL debut for two people: Belichick and Walter Payton. The new Chicago running back carried it eight times for zero yards.

8. Belichick has had a lot of great days as a coach, including his six as Super Bowl champ with New England. But when he finally retires, he may look at the gameplan he shaped as the Giants’ defensive coordinator in the Super Bowl win over the Bills as his finest hour. The Giants played a defense they’d never played before on many plays: a 2-3-6, with defensive linemen Erik Howard and Leonard Marshall the only big people on the field and six defensive backs. Belichick wanted to tempt Buffalo to call more runs, even though Thurman Thomas was a great weapon, because the Giants prioritized stifling Jim Kelly and the no-huddle offense and hit the receivers with multiple defenders on each pass attempt. Buffalo was one of eight on third down, held the ball for only 19:27 and lost 20-19. Belichick’s gameplan from that day is on display in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

9. On the day Belichick was hired to coach the Patriots in January 2000, the Celtics, 19-23, were coached by Rick Pitino. In his first game as coach of the Patriots, on Sept. 3, 2000 in Foxboro, the Patriots lost to Tampa Bay, quarterbacked by Shaun King. But there weren’t a lot of bad days in his quarter-century running the Pats. As of today, here are the four longest-tenured coached in the history of Boston professional sports: Belichick 24 years, Red Auerbach (Celtics) 16 years, Joe Cronin (Red Sox) 13 years, Art Ross (Bruins) 13 years.

10. The roots of why he’s such a humorless flatliner date to his upbringing in Annapolis, Md. He learned everything he knew about football from his dad Steve, an all-business coach and scout at the Naval Academy. Often as an 11- and 12-year-old, he was a practice receiver for Roger Staubach. “People ask me now why I do things a certain way,” Belichick told me 20 years ago. “Look at the way I grew up.”

The way he grew up is the way he’s coached for a half-century. And now, barring a rapprochement this week between the Krafts and their coach, Belichick will either retire (seems unlikely) or start a new chapter, working for a new boss for the first time since he was 47 years old. It’ll be the last chapter, almost certainly. Call it “Chasing Shula.”

If Belichick coaches elsewhere in 2024, I’m most interested in seeing whether the new owners/club president will give him the power and latitude he’s had for 24 years in New England. I wouldn’t. It’ll be interesting to see if the new owner makes him hire a GM with some power (as with the Carroll-Schneider power duo atop the Seahawks); maybe that would be a non-starter for Belichick. Giving him full unchecked power at this point of his football life is a huge risk, but a Dean Spanos or Josh Harris might be star-struck and hand him the farm. We’ll see.

Playing Belichick

I asked Mark Sanchez—the opposing quarterback in nine of the 429 games Belichick coached for the Patriots—to tell me what it was like to play a Belichick team, and what made it different than other games. Sanchez was 3-6 in the nine games, including a huge 28-21 upset in the 2010 playoffs. Said Sanchez:

“When I was a rookie [in 2009] that was our second game, and it was at home. I knew who he was, obviously, and I had respect for him and the team. But so much about the week was just weird. Everyone was on notice. You’re gonna tell the media the games are all the same. But that’s a bunch of baloney. First, division games are bigger, and this was a big rivalry game. My head was spinning anyway, just playing right away as a rookie, and then, Patriots week, we got [coach] Rex Ryan, calling season-ticket-holders, leaving voicemails, ‘We’re 1-0, we need your help this week, come early, stay late, be loud!’ What in the world? Felt like SC-Notre Dame.

New England Patriots v New York Jets

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - NOVEMBER 22: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Mark Sanchez #6 of the New York Jets in action against the New England Patriots at MetLife Stadium on November 22, 2012 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Patriots defeated the Jets 49-19. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

“Our coaches, the reverence they had for Belichick was so noticeable. We must have met eight to 10 hours more that week than any normal week. Like, Here’s what you gotta know, here’s the pitfalls, every little detail matters, they will be in prime position for everything we do. We held him in such high regard. The anxiety, the angst that week. I kept thinking, ‘Good God, who is this wizard up north?’ Then I watched tape, and man, he made good quarterbacks look bad. Really bad. So I went into that game knowing we had to be close to perfect.”

Sanchez said his earliest success against that Belichick defense actually came when the rookie QB messed up his pre-snap assignment—foiling the Patriots’ read of his third-quarter TD pass to tight end Dustin Keller. Imagine that: Because Sanchez threw off the Patriots’ scouting of the New York tendencies, he confused the defense enough to actually succeed.

Said Sanchez: “The throw to Keller was an out and up to the corner of the end zone. But I screwed it up. I was supposed to motion Jerricho Cotchery off the same side. Jerricho knew I forgot the motion so he stayed low to bring the coverage from Keller. The Patriots weren’t expecting that—you could tell. The confusion actually ended up helping us and we scored.

“Later that season we went to Foxboro and got absolutely smacked. There was all this other stuff that I couldn’t believe. We got these instructions: You can’t leave your playbook in your room, bring earplugs in case they pull the fire alarm, here’s the plan if the headsets go out during the game. I knew the NFL, but I wasn’t so well-versed in this rivalry. Man, what is this mystical place we’re going to? We got destroyed, and I really understood why Belichick was so good. I learned what a false game plan was that day. Belichick showed us a specific defense for the first couple of drives and then completely switched everything at the end of the first quarter, early second quarter, and it really threw me for a loop. We tried to rally and solve the puzzle but by that time I had already put Leigh Bodden in the Pro Bowl with a couple interceptions.” (Three, actually.)

“I saw him later in the year in a bar in Miami. Bartender comes over and hands me a drink and says, ‘This is from your friend over there.’ I look over, Leigh smiles, tips his glass. I said, yeah, thanks a lot.

“Next year, we beat ‘em in the first game at home, then get buried [45-3] up there. Next day back in New Jersey, Rex takes one of the game balls, digs a hole at our facility and buries the ball. That’s how embarrassed everyone was. But that’s what Belichick can do to you. Then we came back, beat ‘em in the playoffs. I didn’t realize it till much later. I mean, beating Belichick and the Patriots in the playoffs. Man, oh my God, we went toe to toe with those guys, with Belichick. We bounced them out of the playoffs! So huge! Now I understand it.

“Sometimes, when you don’t know what you don’t know, it’s actually better against a guy like Belichick. I was young, we were slingin’ it, we had a little swagger. Knowing too much can almost paralyze you against them. They’re the team, when you take the snap, the half-second after the ball’s snapped, you confirm what you think you’re gonna see, and they always, always were disciplined, in the best spot. I just don’t remember many errors by them, and other teams you’d know you could catch ‘em sometimes.

“I always wanted to shake his hand after every game, and I’m pretty sure I did. Just a quick thing, but I respected him so much. First couple of times I shook his hand, I got the feeling from him like, ‘This rookie doesn’t really know what he’s doing.’ But man, I loved the competition. Loved going against them.”

40-for-40

A recurring element in the column this year: a video memory of one of my favorite memories of 40 years covering pro football.

One of the stories I’ll always remember is trying to figure out something special to do after the Patriots made that great comeback from 28-3 down to Atlanta in the Super Bowl seven years ago. The day after the game, I reached out to Tom Brady and said I’d like to meet him somewhere, anywhere that week for one hour, just to dissect everything about the great comeback. Tuesday passed. Wednesday passed. No response. On Thursday, I reached out again and basically said that while the memories were fresh it’d be great to get everything from the game on the record; don’t let time pass to diminish the minute thoughts about the plays that won the game—and this would be the kind of interview, which I’d record, that he’d have forever. No idea why he responded, but late Thursday he wrote back. I could meet him either Friday in Boston or Sunday in Montana, where he’d be getting away from it all. Well, which would you choose?

So I flew to Bozeman, rented a car, and met him at a place I’d agreed to not identify. We met at 2 p.m. He was just coming off the slopes. We sat in a cabin. What was great was that he was in no hurry. I recorded it for my podcast and for my column. He was so good, so in-depth, that we did the written story in two parts, about 18,000 words in all, and did the pod in two segments. I chatted with Brady and wife Gisele for about 15 minutes afterward—there’s a good story about that too in my video memory—and left about 4:15 in the afternoon.

There’s one other thing I’ll always remember about that day. I was running The MMQB, a microsite under the Sports Illustrated umbrella, at the time. I had about 86 minutes of audio with Brady, and it had to be transcribed so I could write my Monday column. I was really pressed for time. So by the time I came off the mountain and got to a bit of civilization with a good internet connection (a bar that had a very filling bison burger), it was about 6:50 p.m. Eastern Time. Two of my co-workers, Emily Kaplan and Kalyn Kahler, were off that day, but they agreed to transcribe. I was able to download the 86 minutes and send it to them. They cut the recording in half and got to work. Each filed their half to me between 9:45 and 10 p.m. ET. I filed the column around 3:30 a.m. ET, and it was live to the world at 4:45 a.m. ET. Without Kahler and Kaplan, that Monday column never gets done. They wowed me that night with their unselfishness, and ever since with their work.

Now you see Emily Kaplan starring at hockey between the glass for ESPN, and you read Kalyn Kahler’s great work writing about the NFL for The Athletic. They’ve come a long way from transcribing days.

This 40-for-40’s for you, EmKap and K-dog. I owe you guys to this day.

40-For-40: Visiting Brady in Montana
As Peter King commemorates covering his 40th NFL season, he recalls traveling to Montana to interview Tom Brady after the New England Patriots' historic Super Bowl LI comeback over the Atlanta Falcons.

The Award Section

Offensive players of the week

C.J. Stroud, quarterback, Houston. Made the signature play of his rookie season on the Texans’ first offensive snap of a win-and-in game in Indianapolis Saturday night. His 75-yard touchdown strike to Nico Collins silenced a hyped crowd at Lucas Oil Stadium and was the first dagger in Houston’s 23-19 win, sending the most unlikely playoff team in the NFL to Wild Card Weekend.

Isaac Seumalo, guard, Pittsburgh. This could have easily gone to Najee Harris, who touched the ball on 31 of the Steelers’ 62 plays from scrimmage and produced 133 yards and the game’s first touchdown—and who became the first Steeler in history to open his career with three straight seasons over 1,000 rushing yards. But Seumalo made the best individual play of a must-win game against the Ravens, setting the tone for the game late in the first quarter. On Harris’ six-yard TD run capping a 12-play, 76-yard drive in the rain at Baltimore, Seumalo pulled from his left guard slot and crushed one of the best defensive tackles in football, Justin Madubuike. Pancaked him. You can’t see it very well on the replay, but you can see the end game of Harris making it pretty easily into the end zone here. Great free-agent signing in the offseason from Philadelphia—Seumalo’s brought an athletic toughness to the Steeler offensive front.

Breece Hall, running back, New York Jets. In the Jets’ first victory in Foxboro since mastodons roamed the earth, Hall ran his way through the snow and wind on 37 carries for 178 yards, the best performance in his two-year career. Jets, 17-3.

Defensive players of the week

T.J. Watt, edge rusher, Pittsburgh. On his last two full series before injuring his knee in the third quarter at Baltimore, Watt wrecked two Ravens drives with sacks of Tyler Huntley, forcing Baltimore to punt twice. From inside their 20-. A shame, obviously, that Watt strained his knee in the 42nd minute of the game, but he’d already done enough to be the defensive player of the game: two sacks, a tackle for loss, five pressures, eight tackles. What a player. He’s giving his big bro a run for his money.

Bryce Huff, edge rusher, N.Y. Jets. His two-sack game gave the upstart Huff a 10-sack season as he verges on free agency at age 25 in March. “There will be no discount,” Huff said after the game. Good for him.

Special teams players of the week

Matthew Slater, special-teamer, New England. At 38, Slater played his 265th and final game as an NFL player (regular- and post-season) in the Patriots’ 17-3 loss to the Jets. What an amazing career—a record 10 straight Pro Bowls, all the while proving he was a first-class person and citizen. Slater and Steve Tasker have left their marks on the game as the best two special-teams players in NFL history.

Deonte Harty, returner-receiver, Buffalo. With the Bills hanging on late in the third quarter, trailing by seven, Harty took a Jake Bailey punt at his four-yard line. In an era of diminishing special-teams impact, Harty, from the football powerhouse of Assumption (Mass.) College, blasted through the guts of the Miami punt team and was never challenged on the way to a 96-yard TD.

Goat of the Week

Trevor Lawrence, quarterback, Jacksonville. The Jags were 8-3 and coasting six weeks ago, a prime favorite to win AFC home-field. They went 1-5 down the stretch, and all five losses were on Lawrence’s ledger. With the season on the line on Jacksonville’s last drive of the day Sunday, down eight in the final minutes, Lawrence’s last three balls were overthrows—the last two significantly. His last throw, aimed for Evan Engram, was so far off that color analyst Trent Green said: “That wasn’t a matter of inches. That was two feet.”

Quotes of the Week

I.

I’ll address questions about the game. Anything about the future, I’ll meet with the Robert Kraft, like I always do.

--Bill Belichick, after the final game of the season, and perhaps of his New England career, ended with a 17-3 loss to the Jets.

II.

Today’s game is our season in a nutshell.

--Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson, after the Jaguars finished gagging their way through a 1-5 finish, missing the playoffs with a 28-20 loss to the previously 5-11 Titans.

III.

We should’ve taken a knee. That’s not who we are. That’s not how we operate. It’s a good rivalry, but there’s ways we go about doing business, and I wasn’t happy with that.

--Saints coach Dennis Allen, in his post-game press conference after the Saints chose to score with 70 seconds left, up 24. Falcons coach Arthur Smith blistered Allen when they met at midfield after the game. The worst thing about it: The Saints were lined up in victory formation, the sign that they would be taking a knee, and then ran Jamaal Williams in for a TD.

IV.

That’s f------ bull----!

--Smith to Allen, at midfield post-game.

V.

I’m going to go talk to my parents. They’re probably the only people loving me right now.

--Tyler Goodson, the Colt who dropped a pass on fourth-and-one at the Houston 15-yard line with a minute to go and Indy down by six points.

VI.

There’s a lot of exploitation in football, a lot of misdirection in what are the real values of living, of doing. I’m not saying we shouldn’t have football and all its glory, but the players should be focused on something more than running a 4.5 forty.

--Former NFL quarterback Frank Ryan, who died last Monday at 87, on the website Sports on Earth in 2013, via The New York Times’ obituary. More about Ryan in Ten Things I Think, 10i through k.

Numbers Game

In national TV games this year, the Jets and Giants were a combined 2-10. They were 1-5 each.

Average margin of defeat: 15.8.

That includes all primetime games, Saturday national games, Thanksgiving, Christmas, Black Friday and Europe games—games that had national audiences without competition. The league may buy into the Jets again in 2024 because of the return of Aaron Rodgers, but I doubt you’ll see the Giants on the opening Sunday-nighter with the potential of another 40-point splattering.

Factoidness

I.
New England’s Matthew Slater, one of the best special-teams players of all time, played what is very likely the final game of his 16-year NFL career against the Jets Sunday, at age 38. Patriots owner Robert Kraft told Slater he was free to invite those closest to him to sit in the owner’s box for the Jets-Pats game. Slater, who has worn number 18 as a professional since being the 18th pick in the fifth round in 2008, invited 18 people.

II.
So you want to know what’s wrong with college football (other than the transfer portal and the rich getting richer due to NIL)? This is what’s wrong with college football:

In the fall of 2017, some of the top high school quarterback recruits in America were Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Will Levis, Brock Purdy, Alan Bowman, Zach Wilson and Michael Penix. In the fall of 2024, Lawrence, Fields and Wilson will be entering their fourth NFL seasons. In the fall of 2024, Bowman will be playing at Oklahoma State. It’s Bowman’s seventh year on a college football team—Texas Tech (2018, ’19, ‘20), Michigan (2021, ’22) and Oklahoma State (2023, ’24).

Bowman, in his six college seasons, has played in eight, three, eight, two, three and 14 games. Two of those were called redshirt years, and he was awarded another year because of Covid. What exactly is the purpose of college? To prepare oneself for the rest of one’s life, or to delay the inevitable? If you’ve played college football games for all or some of six years, enough already. Who is running the nuthouse known as college football anyway?

Newman!

Reach me at peterkingfmia@gmail.com.

More mail than usual this week, so this section runs a bit long.

Comeback player? From Brian Miller of Goshen, Ind.: “At the beginning of the season you said Damar Hamlin would wrap up the Comeback Player of the Year award as soon as he suited up. Curious if you still feel that way after Hamlin has played 17 defensive snaps and 94 on special teams (through week 17), particularly considering what Joe Flacco has done.”

I do, Brian. I actually said he’d have my vote if he played one play, and he played 111 this season. I admire Flacco’s play and love his story, but in my opinion a player whose heart stopped on the field, had to be brought back to life and was comatose for two days, then played in a game eight months later is most deserving.
Derek disagrees with my assessment of the Lions’ disallowed two-point play. From Derek Jones, of Grandville, Mich.: “I am disappointed in your opinion. The Lions have been setting this up all year. The fact that they got a little cute with the reporting is all part of the play. The referee and the NFL needs to own this mistake. That’s what real adults do. I don’t recall you being upset with the Patriots when they ran that crazy play against the Ravens in 2015 where they had multiple eligible and ineligible players lined up all over the place. But the Lions were being too cute?”

Lots of emails slamming me for saying ref Brad Allen deserves the majority of blame for the botched conversion in Dallas but the Lions aren’t faultless. “A little cute with the reporting,” to me, is not sending three offensive lineman to the ref, with none overtly making the motion about reporting as eligible; that’s not illegal (at least now it isn’t, though I bet the NFL cleans it up in the offseason, despite reports that they won’t do anything to the rules regarding substitution) but it is inviting confusion, for the officials and the Cowboys.

Re: the snafu in the Pats-Ravens playoff game: The Patriots sent an eligible receiver to the referee three times and told the ref he was reporting as ineligible, and the Ravens had trouble matching up because of confusion over a technique they hadn’t seen before. The difference is that, while both teams attempted to sew confusion in the opposition, New England reported correctly and the Lions tried to pull a fast one.

On a team in D.C. From Jim Shaffar: “You really want the Washington Commanders to move to Washington D.C.? Are you crazy? D.C. is the crime capital of the U.S. We are talking very violent crime. You need to give this a re-think.”

I don’t have to. The Lions moved back to Detroit as part of a downtown renaissance. Atlanta and Cleveland and so many NFL cities are better off because new stadia have been built there this century. I prefer not to give up on troubled cities.

Good question. From Matthias Herpers, of Germany: “A question to you as a New Yorker. I came to New York for the Packers-Giants game. The other three major leagues all have flagship stores in New York. Only the NFL, despite being headquartered in New York, does not. So I was unable to get a Jordan Love jersey in all of the city, let alone other Green Bay stuff. Why does the biggest sports league in the world have no flagship store in the city where it is headquartered?”

This answer from an NFL spokesman won’t fix your issue, Matthias: “We’ve looked at this concept a number of times over the years but decided it wasn’t cost effective for us operate a physical retail store. We point fans to nflshop.com, where merchandise of every team and jerseys of every player are available.”

Good point from a Canadian journalist. (This email responds to my proposal that, to accommodate one Christmas Day game when the holiday lands on a Wednesday, as it does in 2024, the NFL should schedule a division rivalry game on Thursday Dec. 19, then have the two teams play on Wednesday Dec. 25, then have 10 days off before resuming play.)

From Moe Khan, of Montreal: “As a media member, I am lucky to cover the CFL. It is fairly common for back-to-back games involving the same two teams to happen during the regular season. For example, every Labour Day weekend, Winnipeg-Saskatchewan (Sunday), Toronto-Hamilton (Monday), and Edmonton-Calgary (Monday), will play again the following Friday or Saturday. It always creates a carryover of intensity with the teams. As for the travel distance (by car), it is like a natural family road trip. Hamilton to Toronto is 45 minutes, Calgary to Edmonton three hours, Saskatchewan to Winnipeg less than six hours. Could you imagine if Dallas had played Philadelphia the following week after the Cowboys nearly came back to beat them on the road. These types of games which would be huge for the networks.”
Moe, that’s a perfectly rational explanation. I’d love to see it happen.

It’s because of the timing of the voting. From Will Carr:It seems very strange to me that Lamar Jackson is the favorite for MVP but wasn’t named the starting QB of his conference’s Pro Bowl team. How does it strike you?”

The Pro Bowl’s become totally meaningless to me, and has been for years. But consider that fan voting for the game closed Dec. 25, when Jackson went on the two-game run of routs over San Francisco and Miami that clinched the award. Player voting happened before the Miami game.

On the Russell Wilson situation. From Gary Huber, of Dallas: “So Denver ownership asked Wilson to take a pay cut or they would bench him because he was playing poorly. How is that different from a player holding out for more money when they play well? I have no problem with either scenario because both sides are free to renegotiate or tell the other side to get lost. I don’t know why you would demonize one side but be OK with the other.”

Good question. Teams have every right and often do ask players to take a cut or to otherwise adjust their contracts. If they don’t agree, the team often cuts them. So you’re correct—the team can ask that any time. ‘Playing poorly’ is not how I’d describe Wilson after he had four TDs and no turnovers in back-to-back wins over Green Bay and Kansas City. The win over Kansas City was Denver’s first after 15 straight losses in the series. The next day, the GM called Wilson’s agent and made the proposal that he needed to defer the injury guarantee for one year or the team would make him inactive the rest of the year. Does that sound like good timing, or something that would be a good thing for your team to do right then? The time to do this, I believe, would be the week after the season ended. That gives the two sides two months to come up with a solution.

10 Things I Think I Think

1. I think Miami has some work to do, regardless of what happens this weekend at Kansas City. The Dolphins are owned by Buffalo, and they were 1-5 against playoff teams. Flaws showed when Tyreek Hill was out. Crazy as it sounds, I’d aim for one more speed receiver in the draft if I were GM Chris Grier. Speed is what separates this offense.

2. I think one statement surprised me in post-week-18 football. It was this from Jerry Jones, asked about the future of head coach Mike McCarthy. “We’ll see how each game goes in the playoffs,” Jones said. When I read that, my first thought was that Jones wants insurance in case Dallas has an embarrassing end to its season. Second thought: Jones wants a shot at Bill Belichick.

3. I think Arthur Blank felt like, Let’s just rip the Band-Aid off now. No sense delaying the inevitable. I do understand the frustration with Arthur Smith and his inability to get the Falcons to be better. But as always, it comes down to the quarterback in this league, and Desmond Ridder’s just not a starting-caliber quarterback.

4. I think the Eagles being favored in their Wild Card game at Tampa might be the funniest betting line since … well, since forever.

5. I think the only positive for the Eagles right now is what tackle Lane Johnson has done at all road games this year. The night before the road games, he hosts a Gold Star family or Silver Star family—families of either deceased or wounded military members—spending time with them, giving them his jersey, and gifting them tickets for the game. This weekend, he hosted the sisters of the late Army Specialist Matthew Sandri, who was killed in a rocket attack while serving in Iraq in 2004. He spent an hour with them Saturday night at the Eagles’ hotel in Jersey City, N.J., then gave them tickets to the game. Such a wonderful gesture by Johnson, making sure these nine families during the course of the season know they’ve not been forgotten, and ensuring their relative’s memory will live on.

lane again.jpg

6. I think the Lions should sign Zach Ertz. Today. With Sam LaPorta appearing to be lost with a knee injury, and one of the best playoff tight ends in recent times healthy and on the street, what’s there to ponder?

7. I think in 2024, C.J. Stroud’s got a good chance of having two 1,200-yard receivers—Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Collins (80 catches, 1,297 yards) has been a revelation, and Dell had 709 yards in 11 games before fracturing his fibula six weeks ago.

8. I think I have no interest in hearing a player say of a star teammate: “[Fill in the blank] should be the MVP this year. It’s no contest.” It so surprises me that a teammate would push a teammate for MVP!

9. I think you owe Jimmy Kimmel a big apology, Aaron Rodgers. And you’ll be lucky if he accepts it.

10. I think these are my other thoughts of the week:

a. We watched “The Holdovers” on demand last week. (What a country! Movies at home!) I liked it. I like Dominic Sessa as the troubled student and Da’Vine Joy Randolph as the grieving cook better than Paul Giamatti, the private-school professor with baggage out the wazoo. I’d give it a B-plus. One beef: Has there been a more typecast modern actor than Paul Giamatti?

b. Giamatti in “Sideways.” Giamatti in “The Holdovers.” Same guy.

c. Story of the Week: I’m late on this, really late, and I appreciate Sunday Long Reads for drawing me to it. It’s a great whodunit, Tom Donaghy of Atavist Magazine, with a great title: Who Killed the Fudge King of the Jersey Shore?

d. So this story is an all-day sucker. I bet it’s 25,000 words. But trust me: It’s worth it.

e. The first four paragraphs by Donaghy give you hints, as tantalizing as the fudge, of a gruesome murder and the chase to solve it decades later. Writes Donaghy:

The fudge sold at Copper Kettle was so creamy, so sweet, so beyond compare, that many candy shops on the Ocean City boardwalk didn’t even sell fudge, because there was no point. During summer vacations to the Jersey Shore in the 1970s, my father would take my brother and me as a treat, when we behaved. A pretty girl in a pinafore would greet us outside with a tray of free shavings. We’d load up on them until her smile strained, then proceed inside. Once we popped actual cubes of the magic stuff into our tiny mouths, we were as high as kids are allowed to be.

For decades, Copper Kettle lived in my head as a kind of childhood memory-scape: the salt air coming off the ocean, the shiny vats of molten fudge, the too much sugar all at once. Then, during the pandemic, my family decided to return to the Jersey Shore for my mother’s birthday, so everyone could gather outside. I told my brother we should make our way back to Copper Kettle, and he informed me that it had long since gone out of business. He had some more information too: about what had become of Harry Anglemyer, the man behind the fudge.

In the early 1960s, Harry had a string of Copper Kettle Fudge shops up and down the Shore. So revered were his stores that Harry was known far and wide as the Fudge King. He was even in talks to build a fudge factory—something that would’ve taken his Willy Wonka–ness to the next level—when he was savagely beaten to death on Labor Day 1964. His body was stuffed under the dashboard of his Lincoln Continental, parked at an after-hours nightclub called the Dunes. The case was never solved.

I spent the next two years sorting through a trove of whispers and accusations around the murder. At first I was just curious, but more I learned about Harry—a figure beloved by friends and strangers alike—the more intent I was to identify the killer.

f. Pretty, pretty good.

g. Now for the highlight of the week—and nothing comes close.

h. How awesome is Caitlin Clark? Watch that video, and you’ll see that the ball is maybe 20 inches from her hands when the buzzer and red light on the backboard go off. Like, she shot this shot at :00.1 maybe. Could have been a twentieth of a second when she shot.

i. Obit of the Week: Richard Goldstein of The New York Times, on the death of former Browns quarterback Frank Ryan, 87, the last quarterback to lead the franchise to an NFL championship. This is clearly one of the most interesting men ever to play in the NFL.

j. A few wows to consider here. It’s been 59 years since the Browns won a title. Ryan threw three touchdown passes in the 27-0 title game victory over the Colts in 1964. He earned a doctorate in mathematics at Rice University and taught at Yale. During Browns training camp in 1967, he taught math in the morning and practiced with the Browns in the afternoon.

k. Can you imagine Patrick Mahomes telling Andy Reid in the spring, “Coach, I’m teaching a couple of math classes in the morning. Won’t be at practice till noon for the next few weeks.” Riiiiiight.

l. Wrote Goldstein:

Sportswriters were intrigued by Ryan’s disparate callings.

Portraying him as the thinking-person’s quarterback, they couldn’t resist citing the title of his doctoral dissertation: “A Characterization of the Set of Asymptotic Values of a Function Holomorphic in the Unit Disc.”

Ryan said he couldn’t explain what that meant to anyone who did not understand advanced mathematics, but he turned aside suggestions that he was a genius whose intellect helped him find weaknesses in defensive alignments on football Sundays.

“An analytical mind can certainly help a quarterback,” he told Roger Kahn of The Saturday Evening Post in 1965. “But people who say that a mathematical mind is important are just not very well-informed about mathematics. What I do at the university has nothing at all to do with what I do on the field.”

m. Answer to the Eternal Question of the Week: Should you pre-rinse your dishes before putting them in the dishwasher? Mari-Jane Williams of The Washington Post on the conundrum here.

n. Williams confirms what is the best news for water conservationists: Pre-rinsing not needed.

o. Writes Williams:

Experts almost uniformly agree that dishes do not need to be rinsed — and, in fact, should not be rinsed — before going in the dishwasher, saying it wastes water and might make your machine operate less effectively. The Good Houskeeping Institute, which spent more than 374 hours over four months testing 17 dishwasher models loaded with the dirtiest dishes they could conjure, none of them pre-rinsed, confirms this advice.

p. Football Story of the Week: Zak Keefer of The Athletic on a guy who grew up a Colts fan in Baltimore, who went to prison on a murder rap, who dreamed of getting out and seeing a game in another city three states away, and well, I won’t spoil it.

q. Did you watch The Wire? You’ll want to read this, then.

r. Antonio Barnes is living proof a person can do incredible harm and turn into a person who can help society. Good for Keefer for finding him and telling the story of his long, long trip from Memorial Stadium in Baltimore through America’s penal system to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis last week.

s. Writes Keefer, first quoting Barnes:

“There were so many nights I’d just sit there in my cell, picturing what it’d be like to go to another game,” he says. “But you’re left with that thought that keeps running through your mind: I’m never getting out.”

It’s hard to dream when you’re serving a life sentence for conspiracy to commit murder.

It started with a handoff, a low-level dealer named Mickey Poole telling him to tuck a Ziploc full of heroin into his pocket and hide behind the Murphy towers. This was how young drug runners were groomed in Baltimore in the late 1970s. This was Barnes’ way in.

He was 12.

t. Well done, Zak Keefer. And well set up.

u. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow. From Minnesota Public Radio, on the incredible snow-less season in the Great North.

v. “It’s more like mud wilderness now.”

w. Tonight in Houston: Michigan 33, Washington 30. Your move, Jim Harbaugh.

Games of the Wild Card

Miami at Kansas City, Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, Peacock. Tyreek Hill was rankled when the Dolphins’ regular-season game at Kansas City was scheduled for Germany, not Arrowhead. Now he gets his chance, in 13-degree conditions, to show Missouri what it’s been missing.

Green Bay at Dallas, Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox. The Packers probably don’t make this a game late in the fourth quarter, but I’m intrigued to see Jordan Love on the biggest stage.

L.A. Rams at Detroit, Sunday, 8 p.m. ET, NBC. For my money, it’s the game of the weekend: Matthew Stafford going back to his NFL roots and trying to upend a team he’ll always love.

The Adieu Haiku

The Houston Texans
Cannot get too much applause.
Wow, Caserio.

Peter King’s Lineup