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Bills-Dolphins in Week 18 could be for the AFC East crown

Last year, the Dolphins and Bill met in the playoffs. This year, they could meet in a de facto playoff game, one week before the playoffs start.

Miami’s squandering of a 14-point lead with three minutes to play on Monday night against the Titans dropped the Dolphins to 9-4. Buffalo’s three-point win at Kansas City pushed the Bills to 7-6. There’s now a two-game gap in the AFC East with four games to play.

The fact that the Bills beat the Dolphins 48-20 in Week 4 makes it even simpler to play it out. If the Bills can pick up one game in the standings over the next three weekends, the Week 18 rematch in Miami will be the AFC East championship.

The Dolphins host the Jets and the Cowboys, before traveling to Baltimore. The Bills face the Cowboys, Chargers, and Patriots.

It’s not crazy to think Miami will lose two of the next three, given that they’ve yet to beat a “good” team in 2023. So if the Bills win two of the next three, the stage will be set.

And it might not be the difference between winning a division and being a wild-card qualifier. There’s a chance that the Bills-Dolphins loser won’t make the playoffs at all.

Much of it depends on what both teams do between now and Week 18, and what the other contenders in the AFC can manage. Last night’s loss by the Dolphins makes it a compelling wrinkle in a rush to the postseason that contains plenty of compelling wrinkles.

If nothing else, it will make for some interesting episodes of Hard Knocks.