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PFT’s NFL Week 14 2022 picks

Mike Florio and Chris Simms concede that Tua Tagovailoa has improved this season despite a learning lesson against the 49ers, but agree that he's not in the same class as Justin Herbert and benefitting greatly from the talent on Miami's roster.

Last week was a good week, for both of us.

I went 12-2-1. MDS went 11-3-1. And we disagreed on six games, which means that as to the nine agreements, we were 9-0 each.

Along the way, my lead increased to 11 again. I’m 127-66-1. MDS is 116-77-1.

This week, we differ on only two of 13 games to be played. For all picks, scroll away.

Raiders (-6) at Rams

MDS’s take: The Rams are still trying to compete, but they’ve had so many injuries that they’re basically putting a preseason roster on the field at this point. The Raiders should win easily.

MDS’s pick: Raiders 27, Rams 13.

Florio’s take: The Rams emptied the tank to try to beat the Seahawks on Sunday. With the Raiders playing well -- and with their fans poised to take over SoFi Stadium -- the Rams won’t have the talent or the will to overcome one of the hottest teams in the league.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 30, Rams 20.

Jets (+9.5) at Bills

MDS’s take: This will be a closer game than the point spread suggests, but the Bills will prove to have too much for the Jets.

MDS’s pick: Bills 30, Jets 27.

Florio’s take: Last year, Mike White’s third start resulted in a four-pick, 45-17 meltdown against the Bills. It won’t be that bad this time, but the Bills are reinvigorated -- and rejuvenated after Kansas City’s loss gave Buffalo the inside track to the top seed.

Florio’s pick: Bills 31, Jets 20.

Browns (+6) at Bengals

MDS’s take: The Bengals are playing great football right now, and Deshaun Watson did not look good in his first game in almost two years on Sunday. I like the Bengals.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 28, Browns 14.

Florio’s take: The Browns have owned the Bengals lately. That ends now, especially since Deshaun Watson needs at least a few more works to get his career back on track.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 28, Browns 20.

Texans (+16) at Cowboys

MDS’s take: This is the biggest point spread in any NFL game all season, and with good reason: The Cowboys are dominant, and the Texans are awful. Dallas covers.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 40, Texans 17.

Florio’s take: This could be the one that gets Cal McNair to finally decide to hit the reset button after the season ends.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 42, Texans 14.

Vikings (+2.5) at Lions

MDS’s take: It might look a little strange that the 5-7 Lions are favored over the 10-2 Vikings, but it makes sense given how well the Lions have been playing lately. They’ll win this one.

MDS’s pick: Lions 24, Vikings 20.

Florio’s take: Nothing gets a 10-2 team more focused and motivated than being a 2.5-point underdog against a team that started the year 1-6.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 30, Lions 27.

Jaguars (+4) at Titans

MDS’s take: The Jaguars have improved this season, but that’s not saying much given how bad they were last year. The Titans will control this game throughout.

MDS’s pick: Titans 28, Jaguars 17.

Florio’s take: Mike Vrabel has taken control of the Titans, and the Titans will take control of the Jaguars.

Florio’s pick: Titans 31, Jaguars 17.

Eagles (-7) at Giants

MDS’s take: The Giants are struggling after their hot start, and they’re going to fall further behind in the NFC East on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 30, Giants 21.

Florio’s take: Remember when the two upcoming games against the Giants were regarded as potential problems for the Eagles?

Florio’s pick: Eagles 34, Giants 17.

Ravens (+2.5) at Steelers

MDS’s take: Without Lamar Jackson, the Ravens are going to struggle to put points on the board, and the Steelers are playing hard every week.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 17, Ravens 10.

Florio’s take: These two teams always keep it close. With Lamar Jackson out, Pittsburgh has an even better chance to further complicate the AFC playoff picture.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 13, Ravens 9.

Chiefs (-9.5) at Broncos

MDS’s take: The Broncos’ offense is awful. The Chiefs’ offense is great. Hard to see this game being close.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 31, Broncos 13.

Florio’s take: When Russell Wilson was traded to the Broncos, we were smitten with the promise of two annual battles with Patrick Mahomes. Now? Not.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 27, Broncos 13.

Buccaneers (+3.5) at 49ers

MDS’s take: I get why the 49ers are favored, but I just can’t pick Brock Purdy to beat Tom Brady.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 20, 49ers 17.

Florio’s take: Tom Brady will once again be thinking about trying to join the 49ers after seeing their defense.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 24, Buccaneers 13.

Panthers (+3.5) at Seahawks

MDS’s take: The Seahawks have a big opportunity in the NFC West after Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury, and I think they’ll win the games they need to win down the stretch. Including this one.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 24, Panthers 16.

Florio’s take: With some tough games looming, Seattle can’t afford to lose this one.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 27, Panthers 20.

Dolphins (-3) at Chargers

MDS’s take: The Chargers just haven’t been as good a team as they should be in what was supposed to be a big year for Justin Herbert. The Dolphins win in what really is a big year for Tua Tagovailoa.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 27, Chargers 20.

Florio’s take: The Chargers will keep it close before finding a way to lose.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 30, Chargers 24.

Patriots (-1) at Cardinals

MDS’s take: The Patriots look like long shots to make the playoffs, but the Cardinals look like no-shots to make the playoffs.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 24, Cardinals 20.

Florio’s take: Bill Belichick had 11 days to get ready for this one, and his team has something to play for.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 27, Cardinals 17.