Say what you will about Sean Payton’s fateful decision to go for it on fourth down in the second quarter of Sunday’s AFC Championship, but you can’t say this: It was not a product of Payton being beholden to analytics.
Payton has been open about the ongoing influence of numbers in football. For Payton, they’re simply a piece of the puzzle. When he makes a move that seems to be driven by analytics, he’s not doing so at the behest of the Ivy League mathematician whispering in his ear. It’s Payton’s decision, influenced by all of the factors — including how he feels about the play he plans to call.
Indeed, and as reported by Seth Wickersham of ESPN.com, Payton had a decidedly old-school reaction when Bears coach Ben Johnson passed on a field goal to cap the opening drive of the divisional game against the Rams.
“Kick it,” Payton said.
After the play failed (the Rams intercepted the Bears near the goal line), Payton added, “Why are coaches not kicking field goals?”
The ESPN-Analytics-Say-Go vibe has taken over the sport in recent years, with coaches clinging to slim differences in percentages to justify being “aggressive!” Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. (And for some teams, like the Lions, the commitment to going for it removes all unpredictability from the moment.)
On Sunday, Payton seemingly zigged when he otherwise would have been expected to zag. He told Wickersham the goal was to go up 14-0, even thought 10-0 (and two scores) may have been good enough. And Payton thought he had the right play.
But there was a problem. And this is a credit to Patriots coach Mike Vrabel. He had self-scouted. He broke a tendency. He gave the Broncos a look that made it appear the play would work. At the snap, the Patriots shifted into a defense that neutralized the play.
“The look they showed on film, and the look we saw, wasn’t the look we got,” Payton told Wickersham.
That’s a huge part of the go-for-it decision. Calling the right play. And thinking the play that was called will work. There are many factors that influence the outcome. And many factors that determine the decision to go for it.
For Payton, it’s never about blind adherence to math. He ultimately made a decision based on all factors. And the Patriots ultimately disguised the defense they’d use to make the Broncos think the play they’d called would work.
Which overlooks another key factor in the go-for-it decision. Will the defense ultimately have a strategy for stopping that play you think will deliver success? When facing the Patriots and Vrabel, it’s worth taking seriously the prospect that they’ll be ready.
Still, it’s fair to believe Payton should have taken the points. Going up by 10 points could have meant everything, especially given the dramatic turn in the weather. And especially since a two-score game may have prompted an inexperienced quarterback to try a little too hard and to make a mistake that could open the floodgates for the Broncos.
