On Sunday, the 2-8 Browns visit the 2-8 Raiders. And, generally speaking, far fewer than two in eight people care.
Enter gambling. It breathes interest into uninteresting games. Especially when a high-profile, but to date underutilized, player is making his first career start.
Case in point: DraftKings has an entire menu of Shedeur Sanders prop bets for the Week 12 game. There are eleven wagers in all.
Will he have a rushing attempt longer than 10 yards? Will he have a rushing attempt longer than 20 yards?
Will he throw two or more touchdown passes or score one or more rushing touchdowns?
Will he have a completion of 40 yards or longer? 50?
Will he have 25 yards or more passing in each quarter? 50 yards or more in each quarter? 100 or more yards in each half?
Will he have five or more rushing yards in each quarter? 25 or more in each half?
And the long shot that’s being offered is this: One or more touchdown passes in each quarter, with odds of 170 to one.
There’s something else that’s conspicuous about the Shedeur Sanders prop bets. Only the overs are offered, not the unders. That’s generally good, because the unders are more easily manipulated. (Indeed, one solution for potential prop-bet rigging is to never offer unders.)
But it also speaks to the psychology of prop bets. People want to bet the over. And, while I know very little about how the odds are calculated (and, frankly, don’t really want to), it’s fair to wonder whether the odds that are offered reflect the actual statistical chance of any of the various props hitting.
The natural inclination to bet the over could lead to odds that are a little lower than they should be. Which is another reason why player-based prop bets can be so profitable for the sportsbooks.
Generally, the goal is to get equal actions on both sides, with the house’s net earnings coming from the vig. But if bettors who crave the dopamine hit that comes from rooting for more yards and more touchdowns are willing to take odds that may not reflect the true statistical probability of the wagered outcome, the prop bet becomes a profit center.
That’s why prop bets are not going anywhere.
We’re not saying people should avoid them. (Hell, we’re giving free publicity to the “Shedeur Sanders specials.”) The point is that these 11 prop bets are specifically directed to the many believers in Shedeur Sanders. And those folks may be inclined to enhance their rooting interest in Shedeur by betting based on their subjective confidence in his abilities.
Even if the odds aren’t as good as they perhaps should be.
