Tua

Tagovailoa

The Falcons continue to talk like a team expecting to be without Penix at the start of training camp, while holding out some hope that anything could change those expectations. Ryan is the latest dance around the topic, while back in March, head coach Kevin Stefanski said the team was “not gonna rush him” back to the field, and before that, it was reported that the team expects to be healthy “at some point in training camp.” For what it’s worth, Ryan did say he thinks Penix is “in a good spot right now,” but that can mean one of many things. Until he returns, Tua Tagovailoa is expected to operate as the QB1 and will likely have the inside edge to start in Week 1, the longer Penix remains out of commission.

The Falcons’ 2026 training camp dates have not yet been released. Last year’s training camp began on July 24th to August 13th. Wolfe somewhat casually broke the news while discussing the Falcons’ impending quarterback competition between Penix and QB Tua Tagovailoa. Penix underwent surgery to reconstruct a partially torn ACL after suffering the injury in November 2025. Tagovailoa will get to work with the first-team offense until Penix is ready to practice, which could give Tagovailoa an edge in the competition. It seems likely that both players will start at times during the regular season, perhaps warranting QB2 consideration.

How much the 28-year-old Tagovailoa can mentor the soon-to-be-26-year-old Penix is anyone’s guess, but it sounds like Tua and Penix will have a working relationship as they compete for the Falcons’ Week 1 starting gig. “I look at myself when I was a rookie and I was very grateful for the chance that I had with someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick,” Tagovailoa told reporters Monday in his first comments since signing with Atlanta. “I think whatever I can do to help Mike’s game will help me because if I’m helping getting him better, it’s helping me get better, vice versa, we’re then helping the team get better. ... It’s the collection of what’s best for the team, not just the individual.” It remains to be seen whether Penix, coming off his latest major knee injury, will be ready for the regular season opener. That could leave Tua as the default starter in Kevin Stefanski’s offense. " Tua in 2025 ranked 31st out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks in drop back success rate, just below Tyler Shough and Justin Fields. Penix, meanwhile, was 18th in success rate, in line with Jaxson Dart.

This comes a few days after it was reported by NFL Network’s Cameron Wolfe that the Falcons would have “an open competition” at QB between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix. Of course, with Penix recovering from a torn ACL, it’s still unknown whether or not he will be able to compete for the job by the time camp rolls around. Tagovaila figures to have the inside edge on winning the QB1 role based on where things stand right now, but that could change if Penix is healthy by the time camp starts. Regardless of who wins the QB1 job, we would expect Tagovailoa and Penix to both make multiple starts in 2026.

Open competitions do not often favor the incumbent, particularly an incumbent who is likely to miss most of the offseason activities and training camp with a torn ACL. We’d handicap Tua Tagovailoa as the favorite to win the job at this moment, giving him some QB2 superflex upside in what figures to be a run-first offense with Bijan Robinson.

On the same day he learned he would be released by the Dolphins, Tagovailoa now lands in Atlanta on a one-year deal for a minimum salary. The former No. 5 overall pick will be in a prove-it year with the Falcons and head coach Kevin Stefanski, who inherited a tough situation at quarterback with Michael Penix (knee) unlikely to be ready for the start of the season and Kirk Cousins expected to be release. Assuming he’s the Falcons’ starter for Week 1, Tagovailoa will likely get every chance he can to prove he’s the guy for the job in the long haul, but we wouldn’t expect him to start all 17 games even if healthy. Pressure will mount as Penix nears a return and unless Tua is playing well above expectations, Stefanski will likely pivot back to Penix for a look at some point.

Once you get past the fact that the ideal spot for Tagovailoa was the 2023 Dolphins, this isn’t a bad fit. Kevin Stefanski has made a habit of getting more out of less at quarterback and the Falcons need someone to bridge the gap to Michael Penix being healthy after his ACL tear. The fact that Tagovailoa will play on the league minimum with offsets is also a great help with the Falcons since they are struggling with cap space after their disastrous Kirk Cousins contract.

Tagovailoa has two years left on the four-year, $212.4 million contract he signed in 2024. Now, the Dolphins will be on the hook for $54 million in guaranteed money this season, meaning Tua will sign for a league minimum wherever he lands next. Tagovailoa appeared to be stepping into his full potential early in the Mike McDaniel era, throwing for 3,548-25-8 in his first season with McDaniel, which also included a prime Tyreek Hill. A lack of playoff success coupled with defenses figuring out ways to limit Tua resulted in a down 2025, which included a career-high 15 interceptions and a career-low 46.4 success rate on pass plays. A down QB market should leave Tagovailoa with plenty of suitors in the days/weeks ahead, but he’ll likely sign somewhere on a short deal with hopes of landing a big contract in 2027.

Jones was quick to point out that the NFL generally frowns upon teams paying draft picks to offload bloated contracts, and it’s an incredibly rare occurrence. We doubt every team feels this negatively about Tagovailoa and his contract, but it does make it clear that there won’t be much, if any, of a market for his services. Miami is likely stuck either cutting him or keeping him on the roster for another year. Even with a post-June 1st designation, the Dolphins lose $11.1 million in cap space by releasing Tua. They are currently over the cap, making his release particularly challenging.

Fowler noted, as he did in his post-combine article over the weekend, that Kyler Murray and Geno Smith are the likely “tier-one” options for the Vikings, who are expected to be one of the premier destinations for available quarterbacks this offseason. Tagovailoa, who still needs to be traded or released by the Dolphins, could be a name to watch for the Vikings in the coming weeks, but it sounds like KOC and company will target other players before settling on Tua. Tagovailoa struggled mightily last season on his way to throwing for 2660-20-15 in 14 games, but could bounce back in the right setting.