There are significant underdogs in all four Gold Cup quarterfinals this weekend, and the USMNT is definitely not the longest shot to be upset at this stage of the tournament.
The Yanks are the third-heaviest favorite between Panama, Mexico, and Canada, thanks to the toughest draw of the round: Costa Rica, led by longtime Mexican boss Miguel Herrera.
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Los Ticos barely missed out on winning their group, drawing Mexico in their Group A finale in a result that let El Tri snag first place on a single goal of goal differential.
Will there be an upset in this round? Saudi Arabia would normally look like an opponent capable of surprising a favored side, but Mexico is a tough draw for the Saudis.
Upsets have been subjective in the last few Gold Cups. Jamaica beat group-winning Guatemala at the 2023 edition, but most would’ve ticketed the Reggae Boyz as favorites. Canada beat Costa Rica in 2011, but the Canadians were a second-place team in a tough group with the USMNT.
This year, almost every upset would feel like an upset. Let’s see if we select an underdog.
Panama vs Honduras prediction
Kickoff: 7:15pm ET Saturday
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Prediction: Panama won all three of their group stage games, two of them decisively including a 4-1 win over Jamaica that saw Los Canaleros succeed despite a huge possession disadvantage. Honduras rebounded by a 6-0 clobbering by Mexico to win their second and third matches. This won’t be a blowout, as Honduras will know the plan that saw them score an upset win over Mexico in recent memory. But Panama will prevail. Panama 2-1 Honduras
Mexico vs Saudi Arabia prediction
Kickoff: 10:15pm ET Saturday
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Prediction: It’s difficult to do this, but do it — forget the fact that the Saudis beat Argentina at the 2024 World Cup. If you’re not willing to forget that result, which was three years ago, think of it as the first match of a 2W-9L-1D run that included losses to Oman and Bolivia. Arizona is going to be a veritable home atmosphere for El Tri, who would be favored on a neutral ground, and the Saudis are missing their Al-Hilal representation (12 different Al-Hilal players have been called up in the next 12 months). This would be a stunner if it didn’t go the way of Javier Aguirre’s El Tri. Mexico 2-0 Saudi Arabia.
Canada vs Guatemala prediction
Kickoff: 4pm ET Sunday
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Prediction: The Canadians are unpredictable, and you might even go far as to call them chaos agents under Jesse Marsch. Guatemala have earned their surprise place in the quarterfinal but it doesn’t feel like their squad has a Cinderella run in store. Canada have too much attacking presence to lose at this stage. Canada 1-0 Guatemala
USMNT vs Costa Rica prediction
Kickoff: 7pm ET Sunday
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Prediction: The Yanks are due for a scare, and Costa Rica are their toughest foe since the friendly losses to Turkiye and Switzerland. Keylor Navas was solid in a 0-0 draw against Mexico, but Los Ticos back line is not what it’s been in the past. Costa Rica’s Manfred Ugalde is a player but the U.S. has the most dangerous playmaker in Malik Tillman. Herrera’s tournament nous is a wild card here, but Pochettino has looked more and more comfortable with both his Best XI and this tournament. Should the USMNT be on upset alert? Only if they are not alert. The Yanks have shown entitlement in the past but seem to have been properly awakened by the chastening loss to Switzerland. Ultimately, the USMNT depth in midfield and relative strength at center back — speaking in CONCACAF terms — should be enough for a place in the semifinal round. USMNT 2-1 Costa Rica.
