Premier League Betting Power Rankings - Matchweek 6
The Premier League Betting Power Rankings for Matchweek 5 went absolutely insane. 13 of the suggested bets cashed, with three of the top five coming through. It was a major letdown that Luton Town could not score on Fulham, who have an xGA of almost two goals. With them not getting a point over the weekend, it makes you wonder if they will ever get a point on the season.
That said, Matchweek 6 is here, which means we have another round of our Betting Power Rankings. Unlike your traditional power rankings, these rankings don’t care who the best teams are, only those who can make us the most money.
If you’re looking at traditional power rankings, check out Joe Prince-Wright’s right here.
1) Arsenal – While playing on the front foot at the Emirates, Arsenal have covered every first-half corner spread. Tottenham have lost all but one on the road. Arsenal -1 1H Corners (-125) is my favorite bet of the weekend.
2) Liverpool – Liverpool’s attack remains impressive, while the defense still needs work. I am backing Liverpool ML and BTTS (+160) again this weekend.
3) Brentford – The Bees protected their home pitch well last season and had a +0.59 GD/90 while doing so. With three draws at Community Stadium, they should be excited about a match against the struggling Everton. Three points are mandatory; I’m taking their moneyline at -125.
4) Wolverhampton – Wolves have seen a total of 14 second-half goals scored in their five matches. Both teams to score 2nd Half (+220) is a strong possibility.
5) Tottenham – Under Ange Postecoglou, Tottenham have been on the front foot. BTTS and OVER 2.5 goals (-125) has hit in three out of five. Against Arsenal, no reason not to hit again.
Movin’ On Up - Wolves
It’s been a while since we’ve bet on Wolves to treat us right. Brian Hamilton sent this look over and I couldn’t agree more with the look. When betting on bad teams (Luton and Wolves), it’s important to only opt for bets with a plus sign in front of them. Both teams to score in the second half is currently sitting at +220. With 14 second-half goals scored in Wolves matches this season, you’d have to imagine goals will happen in the second half this week.
Imagine if Wolves keep a clean sheet for the first 45; I’d be certain to see Luton score in the second. It’s risky, but at +220, it could be a valuable shot. Luton have improved throughout the season. They are due goals, especially from a bad Wolves team.
6) Brighton – Roberto De Zerbi has unlocked Brighton. They lead the PL in goals scored at three per match. They are one of six teams not to have kept a clean sheet. Brighton -1.5 (-108) is safer, but you can take Brighton ML and BTTS (+140) for more value.
7) Crystal Palace – It’s hard to play at Selhurst Park, and Palace twist the screws to their opponents when they visit. With Fulham conceding two goals per match, the value is on Crystal Palace’s TT OVER 1.5 goals (+105).
8) Manchester United – Only Arsenal have taken more corners than Manchester Utd. The Red Devils average over seven per game, so OVER 5.5 corners for Manchester United (-145) appears safe, especially considering Burnley concedes five per game. Looking for more of a sweat? Consider OVER 10.5 (-120) or 11.5 (+140) Total Corners in the match.
9) Aston Villa – A midweek Europa match makes this match difficult. Villa should score, but the line is crazy juiced. I’d lay the big number on BTTS (-160).
10) Manchester City – City have been stout in defense, allowing less than two shots on target per contest. Forest average the fourth-lowest shots on target per 90. Instead of taking City to win, I like them -2 at -140.
11) Nottingham Forest – Forest fought tough to equalize against Burnley last time out. Now they play the best-possessing team in the Premier League. Forest will sit deep and take their chances on the counter. They will be lucky to earn three or more corners, something they haven’t done in back-to-back matches against City. UNDER 2.5 corners is (-155).
12) Fulham – The move here is Fulham team total of OVER 3.5 corners (-150). They probably hit this in the first half.
13) Bournemouth – I’d imagine they have a tough time with Brighton. Brighton could keep a clean sheet in this one. Bournemouth team total UNDER 0.5 at +163 is risky but could be a play.
14) Newcastle – The Magpies finally looked sure of themselves in their own end in their 1-0 win against Brighton. Keeping a clean sheet on the road will be a sweat, but Newcastle to keep a Clean Sheet (+145) is good value.
15) Luton Town – Both teams should play desperate at Kenilworth Road this weekend as each faces, at the very least, a “must point” (if not outright win) game. The Hatters have scored just two goals on the season – both in the second half. Wolves have given up 10 second-half goals through five games. Luton Town to score OVER 0.5 goals in the 2H (-110) is worth a look.
16) West Ham – West Ham have been dangerously efficient on their shots this season. Much of that is due to the addition of James Ward-Prowse. They probably score at least one at Anfield. Look at BTTS and OVER 2.5 goals (-130).
17) Sheffield United – The Blades have been competitive in each of their five matches – one tie and four (4) one-goal losses. Playing at Bramall Lane, playing the Blades “Draw No Bet” (+400) is a proper sweat, but Newcastle has yet to prove its offense can run with the big dogs.
18) Burnley – It’s a match featuring two teams struggling in their own end…especially in the second half, as each has allowed six goals after intermission. Suppose this was being played at Old Trafford, doubtful Burnley nets one in 2H. With the game at Turf Moor, though, could see it open up in the 2H. BTTS in 2H (+180) will be a sweat but is a reasonable sprinkle.
19) Everton – Will Everton ever get another point? I don’t think so. Betting them to NOT score (+152) would probably be best.
20) Chelsea – Still close to my ban list. They create shots and create opportunities for goals. However, the shot attempts are poor, and they don’t convert. I’ll probably drink the juice and lay -160 on BTTS.