And then there were four.
The New York Liberty made history as the first No.8 seed to upset a No.1 seed in the Minnesota Lynx. The Atlanta Dream finally broke their first round playoff curse defeating the Washington Mystics, the youngest team to ever make the playoffs, in straight games.
Then the Las Vegas Aces out-offensed the Indiana Fever in three games, but also played just enough proficient defense to move onto the semifinals. And the Golden State Valkyries escaped the Dallas Wings as their first round series went a full three games. Golden State weathered losing to overtime to the Wings in game 2 along with coming back down 16 points in game 3 to advance to the next round.
Although the WNBA did away with conference play for playoff qualification and postseason seeding in 2016, the two semifinals series are each coincidentally located on separate coasts.
Beginning on Sunday afternoon, the east coast semifinals series between the Atlanta Dream and New York Liberty kicks off first at 2 p.m. E.T. with the west coast iteration between the Golden State Valkyries and the Las Vegas Aces coming right after with NBC airing the west coast semifinals at 4 p.m. E.T.
Below I preview both series and assess what statistical metrics, player matchups, X-Factors and other deciding factors will help determine the teams that will play in the WNBA Finals.
No. 4 Atlanta Dream vs. No. 8 New York Liberty
Statistics that defined the regular season matchup: The Dream’s 10 steals per game and the Liberty’s 21.4 turnover percentage
This season’s series between these two teams comes with a ton of asterisks. The Liberty defeated the Dream in their first matchup on June 11 back when the Liberty’s roster looked very different. This was before Satou Sabally was out indefinitely and before Betnijah Laney-Hamilton was waived.
But then when the two teams met again for the two final games of the regular season 102 days later, the Dream took both games at the end of the regular season. Breanna Stewart sat out with knee soreness for the second, and what we learned was how much the Liberty needed Stewart on both sides of the floor. Atlanta defeated New York 83-65 in a game where the Liberty struggled to compete without their MVP candidate.
Anyway, in all three matchups between these two teams, the Liberty have been turned over a lot by the Dream, 21.4 percent of the time per 100 possessions to be exact. This is the Dream’s identity.
“They’re first in wing steals,” Stewart said following the Liberty’s final team film session before heading to Atlanta. “So basically, they’re jumping the passing lanes and really trying to get it off that first action.”
Matchup to watch: Angel Reese vs. Jonquel Jones/ Breanna Stewart
When the Liberty and the Dream played two straight games at Barclays Center last month, the Reese vs. Jones matchup popped. The two versatile bigs were incredibly physical with each other trying to haul down rebounds and put back the basketball at will.
Both have played well against each other across the trio of games this season with Reese averaging more points than Jones, but Jones’ numbers superseded Reese’s in efficiency, and in both average rebounds and assists.
While Jones and Reese will most likely begin the game on each other, I expect the Dream to execute some switches that get Reese to have some possessions on Stewart. Reese is the 2026 Defensive Player of the Year and it would be shocking for her not to try to apply pressure to Stewart who has been on a postseason tear, who averaged 27.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists across those first two games against the Lynx.
Could Reese guarding Stewart create problems for New York? The Dream are going to look to be physical with her to wear the Liberty’s front court down and that begins with Reese. Stewart dealt with the physicality when she was guarded by Alyssa Thomas back in the semifinals three years ago. As a result, other players had to step up. The same challenge is ahead for the Liberty.
X-Factors: DeWanna Bonner and Leonie Fiebich
So far it seems to have been a good estimation that Bonner was going to be a critical piece to the Dream’s success in the postseason. While the two game sample size against the Mystics is limited, Bonner stepped up when Atlanta needed it, especially in game 1 when she scored 13 points, all of which came in the second half.
The Dream struggled in the opening half of their series against the Mystics, and Bonner being able to step up and steady a much younger group around her proved to be fruitful for Atlanta. This will need to continue if the Dream want to move onto their first WNBA finals since 2013.
Switching over to the New York side. Since Sabrina Ionescu reminded the league of who she is against the Lynx, especially in that game 2, the Liberty’s X-Factor in the semis needs to be Fiebich, and Jones agreed. “I think she has a really good size advantage,” Jones said. “I think that defensively, when she’s locked in, our team is on a whole different level.”
And Jones is right. Fiebich’s on-off numbers according to PBP Stats illustrate just that. When Fiebich was on the floor—which was limited during the regular season due to a left foot injury—the Liberty’s net rating ballooned from 1.40 to 8.07. Their defensive rating decreased by approximately 6.4 percent from 111.05 without her to 103.99 with her.
What is going to decide this series: Emotional balance and effort
While it is the Liberty that have more players with a lot of playoff experience, New York has struggled at points throughout the regular season with composure and being connected.
“You can’t get scared or sped up when they go on a run, and then just staying really composed, whatever happens throughout the game,” Fiebich said going into this series with the Dream. “If it’s our shot not going in, if it’s the refs, if it’s stuff that we can’t control, just not be letting that affect us.”
This is also a concept the Dream are going to have to take seriously, especially when Reese has never played in a WNBA semifinals before. The Mystics got Reese in foul trouble in the first round, but the Dream still had enough on their bench to be able to power through. Can the same be said against the Liberty?
While Stewart’s leadership on and off the court during the postseason has been not only critical but so far successful, the heavy bandwidth that she carries leading her team in the locker room in addition to her actual play on the court, is going to catch up.
Prediction: The Atlanta Dream will win the series in five games and will earn their fourth trip to the WNBA finals in franchise history. The Liberty will be a tough out, but because of the Liberty’s issues turning the ball over and lack of poise down the stretch, the Dream will advance.
No. 2 Golden State Valkyries vs. No.3 Las Vegas Aces
Statistics that defined the regular season matchup: The Valkyries’ 117.1 defensive rating and the Aces’ 62 true shooting percentage
The Aces have been incredibly difficult for the Valkyries to guard, and so much so Golden State couldn’t beat them during the regular season. The Aces were the only team that the Valkyries could not beat during the regular season.
Part of the struggle was because of how the Valkyries are constructed as they only have one true center that can guard A’ja Wilson in Kiah Stokes. During the regular season Stokes averaged 22.3 minutes per game, but in two playoff games that has increased to almost 27 minutes. Could Stokes be deployed more to keep Wilson in check?
The question will be can Stokes prove that under head coach Natalie Nakase she can be less of an offensive liability? During her years playing alongside Wilson on the Aces, teams would help off of her during the playoffs and it made the Aces a lot easier to guard.
Against the Valkyries, the Aces shot so much better from three than their overall season average of 36.2 percent. In three games against Golden State during the regular season, Las Vegas shot 42.1 percent from deep on 25.3 attempts per game. Does an increased load from Stokes mean that Golden State can focus on defending the perimeter rather than doubling Wilson? This will be something to watch out for.
Matchup to watch: Natalie Nakase vs. Becky Hammon
Two of the most respected coaches in the WNBA will go up against each other for the first time in the playoffs. Nakase, Hammon’s top assistant for three seasons, won two titles with the Aces in both in 2022 and 2023 before taking the helm in Golden State.
Both coaches are not only incredibly tactically sharp, but are emotionally intelligent motivators that can get the best out of players. There was a reason that Hammon pushed Nakase to take the next step and lead a team of her own. This is going to be a pure chess match with both coaches expected to pull out adjustments on the margins throughout the best of five series.
“I’m super happy for her and the success that she’s had there,” Hammon said on Saturday about Nakase. “But right now, she’s on the other side. So, congratulations to her, but we go to war tomorrow.”
X-Factors: Kaila Charles and Jewell Loyd
Charles has quietly been having one of the most impactful postseasons coming off the bench, outplaying her teammate and most likely the regular season sixth player of the year Janelle Salaün. In three playoff games, Charles is not just playing more than she did during the regular season, but she’s scoring more and shooting the ball at a higher clip.
Charles came up huge in the Valkyries’ win-or-go-home game 3 against the Wings on Friday night. She scored 10 points in 28 minutes including hitting the game tying three with under five minutes left.
Kaila Charles had the 9th-highest OREB rate in the WNBA this year... as a wing.
— Hunter Cruse (@HunterCruse14) October 3, 2026
A higher % than 6'6 Jonquel Jones & 6'5 Aliyah Boston. Such a cool hustle player
For the Aces, Loyd is going to have to continue stepping up especially since Stephanie Talbot goes into game 1 of the semifinals listed as questionable. The Australian veteran didn’t play in game 3 of the first round. While Loyd recently completed her least productive regular season in the league, averaging just 8 points per game while shooting 33.6 percent from three, she has shot the ball much better in the postseason. She’s made 7-of-13 three pointers so far across three playoff games, netting out at a 53.9 percent clip.
What is going to decide this series: Clutch moments
While Gabby Williams was given the name “big shot Gabby” by her teammate Tiffany Hayes after the Valkyries come-from- behind win against the Dallas Wings on Friday night, the Aces simply have more players that have come through in clutch moments when it matters the most.
It’s not just Wilson and Chelsea Gray who are notorious for being able to take a defender one-on-one and just make something happen. But it’s also Jackie Young who continues to establish herself as the best two-way perimeter player in the league.
After the Aces defeated the Fever on Thursday night in an intense back-and-fourth game 3 of the first round, Aces head coach Becky Hammon explained how Young was able to play for the entire 40 minute game. “She’s built for these moments, physically built, mentally built, emotionally built for these moments,” Hammon said about Young postgame.
Hammon also believes that her team’s greatest strength against the Valkyries is their “mind for these positions.”
Prediction: The Las Vegas Aces will win the series in five games and it will be far from easy. The bandwidth of the big three of Wilson, Young and Gray will be tested, but their ability to just make clutch plays even when the Valkyries execute defensively will give the defending champions the advantage.
