Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet three conference matchups across the Big Ten, A-10 and Mountain West, including Indiana versus Maryland. Check out the BET THE EDGE podcast for more College Basketball bets.
Indiana at Maryland (-3): O/U 140.0
Maryland is 11-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming to UCLA. The Terps have won by at least five points in every home this year.
The spread opened at -1 in favor of Maryland with a -110 pick-em on the ML but that soon changed to -3 and -150.
There’s no denying Indiana is playing its best basketball of the season with five-straight wins over Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota and Ohio State. However, Indiana is taking a leap up in competition compared to the previous two games and playing a tough road game.
The Hoosiers have played at Minnesota, Illinois, Penn State, Iowa and Rutgers in road Big Ten play this season, going 2-3 with wins over Minnesota and Illinois. This will be a hostile environment and an opportunity for Maryland to finally get a win over Indiana.
Indiana has beat Maryland three-straight games so this is a triple-revenge spot for the Terps, along with being at home. If the Terps control the pace, Indiana will have to grind out a win because these teams play at opposite speeds.
Maryland is 360th out of 363 teams in average defensive possession length, so they make their opponents use clock and work for shots. Indiana is 319th in the same category but ranks as the 39th-quickest offense compared to Maryland who is 179th.
The Terps have an absurd 123.1 adjusted offensive efficiency at home in conference play, along with 82.1% from the free-throw line and a 37.2% offensive rebounding percentage. That came against Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan and Nebraska.
This is the only meeting of the season between the two teams and I am riding with the home team, which rarely lets us down in Big Ten play. I took Maryland ML at -142 odds and am prepared for this sweaty chess match. I’d go to -150.
Pick: Maryland ML (1u)
VCU (-3) at Davidson: O/U 136.0
We faded Davidson at home on Friday Night versus Saint Louis and we backed VCU on Saturday at home against St. Bonaventure and somehow went 1-1 because of VCU.
Let’s make our money back here because Davidson would have never hung around versus Saint Louis if three of the Billikens players weren’t in foul trouble during the first-half.
Davidson has now lost five of the past six games and lost four of the past five games at home. The Wildcats lost at VCU 89-72 on Jan. 7 and I don’t think much has changed since then.
VCU was on a six-game winning streak before losing against St. Bonaventure. VCU had a a 90% win expectancy with 7 minutes remaining in that game.
The Rams have the A-10’s best road numbers in three-point percentage (39.1%) and defensive turnover percentage (25.6%), while the Wildcats allow 35.9% from three at home (11th out of 15) and make the three at 25.6% (14th).
The Wildcats rarely turn the ball over at home in A-10 play (11.9%) or on the season (16.8%), but VCU’s defense is top 10 in turnover percentage.
VCU forced Davidson into 20 turnovers and 2-of-11 from three (18.2%) in the previous meeting. Dayton forced Davidson into 13 turnovers and 5-of-24 from three (20.8%). Against Saint Louis, Davidson only turned the ball over four times, but went 8-of-27 from deep (29.6%).
Davidson is 0-4 versus the top three teams in the A-10 and I think VCU makes is 0-5. VCU is the better team and should sweep Davidson.
VCU won 70-68 at Davidson last season and that Wildcats team was better, plus this VCU team is better, if not just as good as last year’s Rams team. I played VCU ML at -137 odds and would go to -150.
Pick: VCU ML (1u)
San Diego State (-2.5) at Nevada: O/U 138.5
San Diego State has beaten Nevada in nine-straight meetings, including 74-65 earlier this season.
Nevada has lost by single digits in eight of those night games and five or fewer points four times, but no wins for the Wolfpack.
Boise State (26th) is the highest-rated team to visit Nevada this season and Nevada won 74-72. San Diego State is ranked 24th and a perfect 5-0 in true road games compared to Boise State, who is 3-3 in comparison.
San Diego State has the No. 1 three-point shooting percentage (42%) and offensive rebounding percentage (40%) in road MWC play, along with the No. 2 free-throw percentage (78.2%) and No. 3 block percentage (13.9%).
Both squads are atop the league in offensive ratings but San Deigo State’s defense is the difference. Nevada has a 102.9 rating in adjusted defensive efficiency at home during conference play, which is 9th of 11 teams, while the offense is 1st.
San Diego State’s the No. 1 defense in league play and 5th on the road in league play. Neither team turns the ball over too much, but Nevada scores all its points inside, and San Diego State allows most of its points there because their three-point defense is so good (30.7%, 44th).
This is a chess-like matchup, but I have to ride with San Diego State because of their defense, ability to shoot the three and the history of this matchup. Nevada has lost three of its last five games and San Diego State has won four-straight and 10 of the last 11.
I played the Aztecs on the the ML at -120 and -132 odds. This is now -130 to -150 at most places if you’re riding.
Pick: San Diego State ML (1u)
DON’T FORGET TO CHECK OUT OUR BETTING TOOLS:
Live Odds: NFL | NBA | MLB | CFB | NHL Player Props: NFL | NBA | MLB | CFB | NHL
Top Trends: NFL | NBA | MLB | CFB | NHL Predictions: NFL | NBA | MLB | CFB | NHL
