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The Irish do everything in their power to remain one of the most frustrating teams to bet. I confidently entered last week’s road matchup against Syracuse with the belief that the Orange, fresh off a heartbreaking loss to Clemson, would right the ship in The Dome against the Irish.
Quarterback Garrett Shrader and running back Shawn Tucker would run all over the Irish, while the Orange’s defense would render Drew Pyne and company helpless -- shutting down what little offense Notre Dame has.
Then, like a thief in the night, Notre Dame turned a first quarter interception by Shrader into a pick-six to give the Irish a quick 7-0 lead.
Things didn’t get any better for the Orange from there.
Tucker was held to 16-60-1 on the ground and Syracuse surrendered 246 rushing yards on the ground, allowing the Irish to dominate the time of possession. Instead of the Orange covering as 1.5-point favorites (back when I published my article), they found themselves embarrassed in a 41-24 loss, giving them their second-straight loss on the season.
Notre Dame now returns home for a matchup of boring offenses and solid defenses. If you were looking for a game to watch with grandpa as he falls asleep in his recliner, this may be the one.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
Notre Dame
Props to Notre Dame for doing what I thought they couldn’t do while simultaneously adding to my disdain for this team in 2022. The Irish spent most of last week as road underdogs heading into their matchup with Syracuse but entered the day as one-point favorites by kickoff.
In a game I thought the Orange would easily win/cover, Notre Dame used an early pick-six and a solid rushing attack to down Syracuse in a game that never really felt close. The Irish also benefitted from starting quarterback Garrett Shrader being knocked out with an injury and had no trouble at slowing backup quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson.
The only true constant with Notre Dame has been its defense. Defensively the Irish currently rank:
- 41st in points allowed per game (22.1)
- 28th in yards allowed per game (338.5)
- 27th defensive success rate (38.5%)
- 16th in sacks (24.0)
Defensively, the Irish tend to put out pretty solid performances and did so again last week against Syracuse. They generated 13 pressures and four sacks on the Orange while also forcing two interceptions.
Where the Irish have been unpredictable is with their offense. They do their best to avoid passing, ranking 108th in the nation with 26.9 pass attempts per game, while Drew Pyne has thrown for 1193-13-4. Most of Notre Dame’s success has been predicated on the run, as they currently rank 39th in rush yards per game (186.6) and 18th in rush attempts per game (42.6).
Name | Attempts | Yards | YPC | Touchdowns |
99 | 558 | 5.6 | 8 | |
95 | 431 | 4.5 | 1 | |
78 | 322 | 4.1 | 2 | |
29 | 107 | 3.7 | 0 | |
24 | 62 | 2.6 | 2 |
There’s little doubt in my mind that Notre Dame will look to establish the run early and often against the Tigers -- especially at home -- but they could struggle to find room to run against a Clemson defense that’s ranked 43 in rushing defensive success rate (41.1%) and is allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game (87.9).
Clemson
After a close call in Week 8 against Syracuse, Clemson went into its bye week with a perfect 8-0 record. Quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei threw two picks and was benched in that win over Syracuse, but is expected to be back as the team’s starter in this matchup.
Last season, Uiagalelei struggled to the tune of 2246-9-10, but has rebounded in 2022 with a line of 1804-17-4. He’s been aggressive through the air, ranking 19th in deep ball attempts (48) and 22nd in deep ball passing yards (637), but Uiagalelei has been up-and-down against stout defenses, with a solid performance against Florida State (203-3-0) and dud performances against NC State and Syracuse (348-1-2).
Clemson’s best offensive player has arguably been running back Will Shipley. The sophomore back has rushed for 123-726-10 while averaging 5.9 YPC and has also caught 19 passes for 195 yards. Shipley has been one of the best running backs in the nation at creating yards, ranking fifth in YCO/ATT (3.85) and 33rd in missed tackles forced (30).
Like Notre Dame, Clemson is another run-heavy team, ranking 35th in rush rate at 54.3%. Clemson’s leading receiver is Antonio Williams has a line of 29-364-2 and is narrowly ahead of Joseph Ngata (20-324-1).
As long as this one stays close, Clemson should be just as interested in running the ball as Notre Dame, which could result in a slow, low-scoring game that has a projected total of 44.
Irish Pick ‘Em Predictor
Notre Dame Passing Yards
As previously mentioned, Notre Dame has no interest in running the ball. Ranking near the bottom of the nation in pass attempts per game, I’d expect the Irish to stick to their strength in the running game for as long as they reasonably can. As 3.5-point home underdogs, this game should be close enough for most teams to stick to their preferred game plan. As a result, I think Notre Dame has its fifth sub-200-yard passing game on the season.
Notre Dame Passing Yards: <200
Notre Dame Pass Completions
I’ll double-down on my bet of Notre Dame taking a run-heavy approach with another passing prop here. In last week’s game against Syracuse, Pyne attempted just 19 passes. His nine completions marked the third-straight game in which he’s completed 14 passes or fewer. If Pyne is to complete 16 or more passes this weekend, the Irish may have to throw 30 times to make it happen. Again, operating under the assumption that this game stays close, I think the Irish will keep the ball on the ground and continue the trend of low-volume passing days for Pyne.
Notre Dame Pass Completions: 0-16
I’d like to think that I’m not the only one who sees the similarities between last year’s Clemson team and this year’s Notre Dame team. Both teams entered their respective seasons with high expectations, and both underwhelmed to the point of feeling nearly impossible to bet. Even looking at their records ATS this season, both teams are 4-4, but at least Clemson can down an 8-0 record.
Clemson already had three losses at this point last season and was 1-7 ATS. Notre Dame hasn’t been quite that bad ATS, but a 5-3 record for a team that kicked off Week 1 as the No. 5 team in the nation feels eerily similar to Clemson’s 2021 team. The sub-par quarterback playing opposite a stout defense is also glaringly obvious.
If I were to bet the spread in this one, I’d lean Clemson at -3.5. Coming off a bye the Tigers are 10-8-2 ATS under Dabo Swinney, but I’d prefer to chase the under here. The under is a combined 8-7-1 between these two teams this season, and strangely, is 13-7 when Clemson has come off a bye under Swinney. In a game that features two middle-of-the-road offenses and stout defenses, this one has the making of a sluggish ground attack that includes little scoring.
Pick: Under 44
2022 Record: 22-33-1
