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The PGA Tour heads down to sunny Palm Beach Gardens for the first stop on the Florida Swing. Many consider the Florida Swing the unofficial kickoff for the road to the majors. I’m sure many don’t focus on the Honda Classic as much as they do the Arnold Palmer Invitation or The Players Championship. It’s probably due to the weakness of the field. The strength of field last week at Genesis was 685, this week it is 239. Regardless of the field, there are a few plays that I will be backing based on value and upside. You can find these odds on PointsBet Sportsbook.
Brooks Koepka to win (+2200)
All season I have been fading Koepka. Openly fading him in DFS and in any head-to-head matchup that made sense has been my strategy. Koepka has openly said he doesn’t care about most tournaments outside of the majors. He generally uses the Florida Swing as a ramp up for golf’s first major, The Masters. I am backing Koepka to win outright. I honestly think he is mispriced, giving him value. I would make his odds a tad lower around +1600.
Koepka showed glimpses of his possible dominance at the WM Phoenix Open, where he finished third. At WMPO he did something that he’s struggled to do in his past three events, he gained strokes off the tee. After a missed cut at the Genesis, we get a discount on his price.
He’s been up and down here with two missed cuts and a T2 finish. He knows this course; his flat stick improves on Bermuda grass. He’s Florida boy from West Palm Beach. I am taking my shot at value here.
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Nicolai Hojgaard to win (+7000) & Nicolai Hojgaard to finish top-20 (+270)
There’s not a world where I’m not backing Hojgaard this week. In tournaments that have lower quality fields and difficult course conditions, it’s important to find your value guys and back them. Why not Hojgaard this week. In the past six months the 20-year-old Danish golfer has wins at the Italian Open and the Ras Al Khaimah Championship as well a T4 finish at the DP World Tour Championship.
He’s proven that he’s got game. The question is, will the stage be too big in his first PGA Tour event in the United States? Whether the answer is no, I am willing to take the chance because he has the metrics to make it worth it.
While driving distance isn’t overly important here, I still like the fact that he is long off the tee. Hitting drives in the 320-yard range. He hit’s greens in regulation and has a high birdie conversion percentage. Trust me, if he finishes top-10 this week, there’s no way we get these prices on him again. This week is Nicolai week for me.
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