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We’ve got a tasty slate of baseball to bet on Saturday and I’ve picked out two late games which I’m seeing plenty of value in. Let’s get to them.
Miami Marlins (+145) vs. Atlanta Braves (-176) Total: 8
This is a game I’ve got to bet out of principle. Edward Cabrera is a very good pitcher, and Bryce Elder is a very bad one. For that reason, there’s a ton of value in taking the underdog here.
Cabrera has been lights out with a 26.8% strikeout rate and a very low 27.9% hard-hit rate, coupled with a .189 expected batting average and a spicy 2.46 ERA. The peripherals are there, the results have been there. Cabrera just pitched to a 1.91 ERA in August with 33 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings. What more do you need to see?
Elder owns a 6.07 xERA with a high .407 xwOBA on contact. I don’t really care that there’s a disparity between the two offenses, this is out of control. Atlanta has dipped slightly at the plate, anyway, with a 106 wRC+ in the last week. This is doable.
Edge: Marlins +145
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Houston Astros (+110) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-131) Total: 7.5
If you dust off the ol’ NBC Sports EDGE Finder, you’ll see that when the Angels come into a game at home as favorites, they play 27-16-1 to the under. That’s returned you a profit of 8.55 units this season, and the under has cashed in three of the last four.
These teams are both in the bottom 11 of the league in wRC+ over the last week of play and searching for answers at the plate. That’s why we see such a low total here, though the pitching matchup is also great.
Luis Garcia isn’t spectacular, but he’s rock solid with a 3.60 xERA and also the pitcher with the easier job between the two. There’s also Shohei Ohtani, who pitched to a 2.20 ERA in August and is coming off of seven shutout innings against Toronto. I have faith in both.
Edge: Under 7.5