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Celtics at Bucks (-1): O/U 212.0
Game 4! Bucks survived a questionable call at the end of Game 3 to steal the win at home.
However, Game 4 should be a spot to take the Celtics with a chance to go home to Boston with the series tied 2-2.
The Celtics are 21-11 on the ML following a loss this season (65.6%) and 19-13 ATS (59.3%), per NBC’s Edge Finder. Boston has covered seven of the past nine (77.7%) and won eight of the previous nine (88.8%).
As an underdog in the next game, Boston has won three straight after starting the season 0-4 in that role. Wins during that three-game stretch came against the Bucks, Suns and Warriors.
Boston is also 15-3 ATS in its last 18 road games (83.3%), which is worth noting.
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This is also part of the series where I expect the loss of Khris Middleton to start affecting the Bucks and the Celtics adjustments to be too much.
Milwaukee is shooting 72% from the free-throw line over the past five games and averaging 96.7 points per game on 42.7% from the field and 27.9% from three in this series, so the Bucks are skating on thin ice offensively.
I like this as a bounce back spot for the Celtics and expect a win for Boston, so I will take the +1.
Pick: Celtics +1 (1.5u)
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