Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet in Game 4 between the Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Lakers.
Nuggets at Lakers (-3): O/U 225.5
The Lakers have been competitive in all three games but in the fourth quarter, Los Angeles has been outscored in two out of the three fourth quarters and were led or tied in by the end of the first quarter.
Denver has finished and closed the game well, something Los Angeles just quite hasn’t been able to do. I don’t expect that to change here, but I will admit, most sharps will be on the Lakers in the first quarter and first half based on motivation and all out effort to win this game.
That’s normally how I’d go, but I cannot continue to back Los Angeles (or Boston) after what we’ve seen.
LeBron James is 10-1 in conference finals, but that is coming to an end. James averaged 23.7 points per game and a near triple-double in the series is far on a horrid 48/15/72 splits.
Los Angeles has relied on Austin Reaves (22.7 PPG) and Rui Hachimura (17.0 PPG) far too much to make me believe the Lakers will win Game 4.
The Lakers looked checked out by the end of Game 3 and with Anthony Davis putting up 28.7 points, 14.0 rebounds and 4.0 combined blocks and steals per game, there’s not much more this Lakers’ team can do that they haven’t already done.
I can only back the Nuggets here at +135 odds as the Lakers cannot close the fourth quarter and if Los Angeles is down by 10-plus in the second-half, I am not sure they will be motivated enough to win down 3-0.
The conference finals has never had two teams get swept and I think that happens for the first time ever this year.
Pick: Nuggets ML (1u)
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