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Klay Thompson O/U 28.5 PRA vs. Mavericks
We are fading Game 1 Klay Thompson and you better be ready to sweat this out with me.
Game 6 Klay was something else. He went off for 30 points, eight rebounds and two assists, his best game of the postseason by far. However, in Game 1’s this year, Thompson has recorded 24 and 19 PRA against the Nuggets and Grizzlies.
NBC’s player prop model projects Thompson to score 16.9 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.0 assists for 23.8 PRA, well under the 28.5 number. Thompson has stayed Under this total in seven out of 11 postseason games (63.6%) and 5-3 to the Under at 39 or fewer minutes.
He averages 20.8 points, 3.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists for 26.2 PRA in those eight games at 39 or less minutes in the postseason and went Under 21.5 points in six out of eight games (75%), per statmuse.
Dallas’ defense is allowing 33.9% from three and 9.6 three-point attempts per game, which is crucial against Thompson. The Warriors sharp shooter averaged 9.2 and 9.6 three-point attempts in the first two series, shooting 42.8% in the first round, then 36.8% in the second round.
Thompson’s field goal percentage dropped from 49.6% to 42.2% the following round as well and with 13 free-throw attempts over 11 games, we should expect him to continue shooting threes and mid-range jumpers.
Thompson averages 3.4 potential assists and 8.9 potential rebounds in the postseason. With 13.3 rebound and assist chances, he has only averaged 6.5 rebounds and assists in the playoffs. I like the chances he stays Under tonight.
I grabbed Thompson Under 28.5 PRA at -120 odds and would play this down to 27.5 or out to -140.
Pick: Klay Thompson Under 28.5 PRA (1u)
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