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NBA DRAFT POSITION: Davion Mitchell O 8.5 (-112), U 8.5 (-125)
Davion Mitchell was arguably the best player on the best team last season, leading Baylor to an NCAA Title over Gonzaga.
While he impressed everyone in his two seasons at Baylor, the 22-year-old guard’s prop line seems slightly lower than his draft stock.
Mitchell’s main issues are his height, standing at 6-foot or 6-foot-1, and his age as he turns 23-years-old in September.
Since 2010, there have been 12 players age 22 or older drafted in the NBA lottery. Considering that list, there is not much to like outside Hield, Johnson, and maybe Olynyk and Toppin (the jury is still out on him).
2020: Obi Toppin (8th)
2019: Cameron Johnson (11th)
2016: Kris Dunn (5th)
2016: Buddy Hield (6th)
2016: Taurean Prince (12th)
2016: Denzel Valentine (14th)
2015: Frank Kaminsky (9th)
2014: Doug McDermott (11th)
2013: Kelly Olynyk (13th)
2011: Jimmer Fredette (10th)
2010: Wesley Johnson (4th)
2010: Ekpe Udoh (6th)
On average, players age 22 or older drafted in the lottery go 9.08 overall, and five of the 12 players have gone No. 8 overall or earlier.
Mitchell has shown strengths as a great off-ball guard with his shooting ability. He drastically improved his three-point percentage, going from 32.4% to 44.7% on 36 more attempts. Mitchell ended the season 51.1% from the field.
Over his two seasons with the Bears, Mitchell went 94-of-144 from the free-throw line (65.2%) and turned the ball over 2.3 times per game in 60 contests.
Those two indicators are not very favorable for a shooting guard. Mitchell’s defense is being called into question for the NBA as his 6-foot and 200 lbs stature may not be lockdown material at the next level.
Mitchell won the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Award and All-Big 12 First Team as a junior with Baylor. His defense was not much of a question against similar talent and younger opponents, but at the NBA level, Mitchell could struggle.
Drafting an undersized 22-year-old two-guard in the top 10 is not a position many teams can take a chance on. The teams with a real opportunity to select Mitchell in the top 10 are anywhere from No. 7 on.
Since this prop became available, there has been no movement whatsoever on the 8.5 line, per NBC’s future model.
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The Warriors (No. 7), Magic (No. 8), Kings (No. 9) and Pelicans (No. 10) are all considering Mitchell, while the Raptors (No. 4), Magic (No. 5) and Thunder (No. 6) likely will pass on the Baylor star with a top-six pick.
Golden State and Orlando both have two lottery selections, so a player like Mitchell could be worth the risk. Orlando selects at No. 5, so drafting Mitchell at No. 8 would more sense based on his stock and projections, but if they go guard at No. 5, you can kiss Mitchell goodbye.
There is a chance that Orlando drafts either Scottie Barnes or Jalen Suggs at No. 5, depending what Toronto does at No. 4.
Depending on that, Mitchell would be a pass at No. 8 for the Magic if they land either player. The Thunder at No. 6 will have a similar situation, but have the pick of the litter with the best available prospect, which will not be Mitchell even if Barnes and Suggs are gone.
The Warriors select at No. 7 and No. 14. The chances Golden State selects Mitchell rather than a stretch forward at No. 7 is not ideal to me. Even if Suggs and Barnes are gone by No. 7, there are a few other guards that could hear their name called before Mitchell.
The guards competing with Mitchell for a top-eight selection and picks outside No. 1-3 spots are Jalen Suggs (Gonzaga), James Bouknight (UConn) and Moses Moody (Arkansas). Bouknight and Moody will be Mitchell’s main competitors for the 7-10 spots.
Oklahoma City, Golden State and Orlando will likely have their choice of forwards or big men between, Scottie Barnes (Florida State), Jonathan Kuminga (G-League), Keon Johnson (Tennessee), Franz Wagner (Michigan), Corey Kispert (Gonzaga) Josh Giddey (Australia) or Alperen Sengun (Turkey). A few of these players could sneak into the top 10 with Kuminga looking like he will go anywhere from 5-10.
With Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green and Evan Mobley more than likely going top three, I like the chances five of those nine previously mentioned players hear their name called before Mitchell does. I believe Suggs, Barnes, Kuminga will definitely hear their names called before Mitchell, leaving two more players needed to win this bet.
Johnson (-200), Bouknight (-175) and Wagner (-150) all have -150 or better odds to go top 10, while Giddey (+110), Sengun (+150) and Moody (+160) all have a fair shot as well.
Mitchell is -330 to go top 10 as the favorite outside the six guys I like to go before him. But to be honest, I like the chances Mitchell slips out of the top 10 more than he lands in the top eight.
I see a surprise big man between Giddy or Sengun going in the top 10 and at least one of these guys, Johnson, Boutknight or Wagner to go before Mitchell.
Back Mitchell to go No. 9 overall or later in the 2021 NBA Draft on PointsBet for -112 odds. They already shifted from -105 on Tuesday and should continue to move in our direction with the NBA Draft on Thursday, July 29th looming.
Pick: Davion Mitchell Over 8.5 Draft Position (1u)
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