With just 12 games left on most team’s schedules, squads are gearing up for playoffs or play-in game positioning. Having a sense of each team’s direction will help your NBA handicapping for the stretch run. For example, the 76ers are 11.5 home favorites vs. the Thunder tonight, while Oklahoma City has lost 16 of their last 17 games. They won’t win tonight.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Washington Wizards (+3) Total: 228.5
The Washington Wizards are the second-hottest team in the league right now, behind only the New York Knicks. Winners of eight-straight and nine of their last 10, the Wizards will look to extend the streak when they play the Spurs in D.C. tonight.
San Antonio is currently the Western Conference’s ninth seed despite a mediocre season overall, meaning it will likely be a part of the postseason play-in tournament. Earlier this season the Spurs scored a 20-point home victory over the Wizards.
Upon seeing the line, I was shocked to see the Spurs listed as the favorite even with Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook scheduled to play. Whenever a line looks this suspect, further investigation is needed. This game opened up with the Spurs as a 1-point favorite, though public bettors are clearly backing the red-hot Wizards despite the line favoring the Spurs. The reverse steam indicates that respected money is backing the Spurs to end the Wizards’ winning streak tonight.
Edge Finder Tip: The Spurs are 10-4 ATS on the road since the All-Star break
Edge: Spurs -3
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Phoenix Suns vs. New York Knicks (+2) Total: 215
Nothing in sports betting is absolute. When it comes to spread betting I do not like to back short road favorites, with the Spurs being an exception tonight. I typically fade trendy underdogs, but I’m backing the Knicks tonight as a trendy underdog.
The Suns are 2-2 straight up on their current East Coast road trip and will play the dreaded fifth-straight road game tonight. Even though the Knicks will be a trendy underdog, I don’t think its a good idea to fade New York.
Edge: Knicks +2
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Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat (-6) Total: 206.5
The Miami Heat are currently the seventh seed in the East. If the season were to end today the Heat would be in the play-in tournament, which would fall well below expectations. If the season ended today for the 11th seed Chicago Bulls, they would not even make the play-in tournament. That’s likely not what they expected when they traded for Nikola Vucevic at the deadline.
Miami has won both of its games vs. the Bulls this season, covering the number in each matchup. Tonight the Heat are 6-point favorites with the public strongly behind them. Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, and Goran Dragic are all questionable for the Heat, while Zach LaVine is out for the Bulls. Even with LaVine out I’m going to fade the public and back the Bulls. I don’t think Miami has it this season.
Edge: Bulls +6
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets (-4) Total: 228
With two-straight wins over the Portland Trail Blazers this past weekend, Memphis is playing some of the best basketball in the league right now. The Grizzlies will be a playoff team and likely won’t be an easy out. Tonight, however, they will play their seventh-straight road game when they face the Nuggets.
Denver has won both matchups vs. Memphis this season, winning both games by a combined 3-points with a double-OT thriller just last week. The Grizzlies are 20-10 ATS on the road this season, but I think Denver wins the game. I like the Grizzlies to get the cover in a close game.
Edge: Grizzlies +4
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