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Chris Paul O/U 21.5 Points vs. Bucks
For the first time all season versus the Bucks, Chris Paul hit an Under in the scoring department. I have waited for an Under to hit on Paul so I can hop on the Over -- now seems like the best time.
With all the pressure back on Milwaukee for a second straight game, I like CP3 and company to keep this close and grind out a win or cover.
Paul has scored 28, 22, 32, 23 and 19 points in five meetings with Milwaukee this season. In the only Under Game 3’s 19-point outing, Paul shot 57.1% from the field in 34 minutes, going 1-of-4 (25%) from three and 2-of-3 (66.7%) from the free-throw line.
If Paul went 3-for-3 from the line and made one more three, he would have hit the Over despite losing 120-100 -- a promising sign for CP3 backers.
NBC’s model predicts CP3 to score 25.7 points in 39 minutes of action. Paul scored 22 or more in four straight before dropping 19 in Game 3’s blowout loss.
Paul leads the MVP odds as the favorite at -250. Giannis Antetokounmpo is next in line with +225 odds, then Devin Booker (+1100), Khris Middleton (+2000), then Ayton (+3300).
It is clear, CP3 is a bet-on player in the NBA Finals, and as the MVP odds leader, you can count on him to bring his A-game.
Paul has scored 22-plus points during the postseason in six of the previous nine games (66.7%) and 4-of-6 (66.7%) at 37-plus minutes in the playoffs per NBC’s player prop chart.
Against the Bucks, Paul is 3-of-3 to the Over 21.5 points at 34-plus minutes this season. Paul will likely play 37 or more minutes in this contest to go up 3-1, headed back to Phoenix.
Paul has attempted at least 14 field goal attempts in 11-of-17 (64.7%) playoffs games and averaged 24.8 points per game. He’s logged 14-plus field goal attempts in nine straight contests and averaged 26.0 points per game in that stretch during the postseason.
I like the chances he goes for 22-plus points, and so does the NBC model.
Pick: Chris Paul Over 21.5 Points (1.5u)
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Deandre Ayton O/U 28.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Bucks
I cannot lie. Deandre Ayton burnt the props community and me in Game 3 in what seemed like his first game dealing with foul trouble in forever.
Ayton has been one of the most dominant players in the entire postseason, and when talking about just centers, there have not been many better, if any over the past month-plus.
The Suns’ big man only lasted 24 minutes due to earning his second and third fouls with 1:32 and 9.5 seconds left in the second quarter, then picked up his fourth foul at 10:25 in the third quarter -- putting him on the bench for the remainder of the third quarter.
The former No. 1 overall pick recorded 18 points on 8-of-11 (72.7%) from the field and grabbed nine rebounds out of 16.0 rebound chances in Game 3.
Ayton’s shooting 64.2% from the field in the NBA Finals on 20-of-31 and 10-of-11 (90.9%) from the free-throw line.
NBC’s model projects Ayton to record 18.0 points and 14.5 rebounds in 41 minutes of action. When Ayton plays 37-plus minutes in the postseason, he has cashed the Over 28.5 Points and Rebounds in 6-of-8 (75%) games.
Against the Bucks, Ayton has met them five times this season and averages 17.4 points on 17, 20, 22, 10 and 18 points while bringing down 11.8 rebounds per game with 7, 13, 19, 11 and 9 in that order.
Ayton averages 29.2 points and rebounds in his five games versus the Bucks and 31.7 P+R when he plays beyond 30 minutes.
Giannis has dominated the interior, looking healthy as can be, so Ayton’s presence is much needed in Game 4 to avoid a 2-2 split headed back to Phoenix.
Back Ayton to avoid foul trouble and go Over his Points and Rebounds total versus the Bucks, in addition to CP3 leading the way.
Pick: Deandre Ayton Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds (1u)
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