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Karl-Anthony Towns O/U 25.5 Points vs. Clippers
Run it back.
Karl-Anthony Towns scored 18 points in his last meeting with the Clippers on Wednesday, mainly because it was the Anthony Edwards game. Edwards finished with 28 points on 21 shots.
Towns had 18 points on 16 shots, so not as effective. He also did not get a few calls, so he should be more aggressive tonight.
NBC’s player prop model once again likes his matchup with the Clippers, and I do too. I think I was a game early on him, so I will go back to the well.
In the last five games that Towns finished under 20 points, he scored 23, 26, 30, 29 and 34 points in the next game. D’Angelo Russell remains out, so Towns and Edwards will be the 1-2 punch yet again.
Serge Ibaka and Marcus Morris remain out for the Clippers, so it is round two against Isaiah Hartenstein and Ivica Zubac for KAT.
The Clippers allow 35.1% from three and Towns attempted eight triples, making three, so expect more of that as well, bringing value to the Over 2.5 three-pointer prop (-150).
I prefer the points as he scored 25 points in the first meeting versus New Orleans this season, then 32 points two days later versus the Pelicans. This fits that trend as they meet once again and looking deeper, he does well in this spot.
Out of the last four times that KAT played the same opponent back-to-back, he averaged 24.5 points per game in the second meeting, dropping 24, 27, 26 and 21 points.
I expect KAT to fix what went wrong the first time around and be more effective than 37% from the field in his second meeting with the Clippers.
Play this up to 26.5 points for 1 unit.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 25.5 Points (1u)
Harrison Barnes O/U 18.5 Points vs. Hornets
Buddy Hield O/U 14.5 Points vs. Hornets
The Hornets allow shooting guards to score 26.29 points per game (second-most) and small forwards 26.19 (third-most) this season.
Charlotte’s defense has been subpar as expected, and against the three, well, they have been lucky.
The Hornets permit 40.6 three-pointers per game, the fifth-most in the league and 13.6 makes, which is sixth-most and a good stat but only 33.4% (13th). Versus Sacramento, that should change as they scored 112 and 113 points in back-to-back games.
The Kings are shooting 45.4% from the field (13th) and 32.6% from three (23rd) for the season. Sacramento has improved to 48.6% from the field in the last two games from the field and 36.1% from three.
They are back to heating up and matched up with the NBA’s 27th-ranked defensive net-rated squad.
Our model likes two players that I targeted and will roll with -- Harrison Barnes and Buddy Hield.
I lost on Hield versus Dallas, a weird loss considering he needed 15 points and attempted 12 three-pointers finishing with 11 points.
On the season, Hield is 5-3 to the Over 14.5 points (63%) and hit the Over every game following an Under, per NBC’s player prop model. This is a positive matchup for Hield, plus he scored 23 and 30 points on the Hornets last season.
The model also projects Hield to make 5.2 three-pointers, but that is a tough call with a 3.5 three-point prop line.
For Barnes, he has been on a tear this season, averaging 23.5 points per game, along with 9.5 rebounds, If I may add. Barnes is 6-2 to the Over 18.5 points this season (75%) but scored 15 and 18 in the two Unders.
Barnes has been consistent and a threat from deep, making two or more three-pointers in seven out of eight games (87.5%).
Barnes is hitting 47.3% from three this season, making 3.3 triples on 6.9 attempts. Our model has him at 4.0 makes tonight. He is also 3-0 to the Over 18.5 points at home this season, scoring 23, 24 and 25 points.
We will play both Barnes (18.5) and Hield (14.5) Over in points and throw Barnes Over 2.5 three-pointers in there for a half-unit play as he knocked down two, four and five triples in Sacramento this season.
Three triples are well within striking distance versus Charlotte for Barnes and if Hield’s line was not 3.5, I would be playing that as well.
Play Barnes up to Over 19.5 or 20-plus points and Hield to Over 15.5 or 15-plus points if you miss out on the early lines. I would play Barnes out to -120 for made triples. I got him Over 2.5 three-pointers at +100 odds.
Pick: Harrison Barnes Over 18.5 Points (1u), Buddy Hield O/U 14.5 Points vs. Hornets
Harrison Barnes Over 2.5 Three-Pointers (0.5u)
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