Christian Wood Over/Under 20.5 Points vs. Warriors
Tonight’s Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors matchup features two fantastic young centers battling for the spotlight. Houston’s Christian Wood versus Golden State’s James Wiseman.
The focus will be on Houston’s Wood, as he has put together three straight games of 22 or 23 points. Wood scored 21 points in 26.3 minutes during the first meeting with Golden State this season.
The Warriors have had trouble defending bigs and lately, it has gotten worse. Here are how opposing big men have fared against the Warriors in the past 10 games only.
Clint Capela: 24 Points and 18 Rebounds
Bobby Portis: 13 Points and 13 Rebounds
Alex Len: 15 Points and 5 Rebounds
Rui Hachimura: 22 Points and 5 Rebounds
Pascal Siakam: 36 Points and 7 Rebounds
Bam Adebayo: 19 Points and 8 Rebounds
Nikola Vucevic: 21 Points and 9 Rebounds
Tony Bradley: 18 Points and 11 Rebounds
Richaun Holmes: 25 Points and 11 Rebounds
Jonas Valanciunas: 19 Points and 15 Rebounds
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When Wood puts up 15 or more field goals attempts, he has averaged 22.4 PPG since the All-Star Break. The Warriors allow the fifth-most points per game to centers on the season (24.07) and the 11th-most to power forwards (21.33).
John Wall is GTD today and when he is out, Wood has scored 23, 23 and 15 points in the last three without him. With Wall, he has scored 22, 11 and 19 points in those previous three contests.
In the last 12 games, Wood has averaged 19.7 PPG post the All-Star Break. He has scored at least 18 points in nine-of-12 games and 21 or more in six-of-12 contests. Versus Western Conference opponents, Wood averages 21.6 PPG on the season too.
When he plays 30-39 minutes per game this season, Wood records 22.1 PPG and 27.5 PPG when he plays 40-plus. NBC’s model projects Wood at 19.2 points tonight in 32.0 minutes, but when I add in my projections to the model, the output is 21.0 in 32.5 minutes on 16.1 field-goal attempts.
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In back-to-backs this season, Wood averages 19.7 PPG on 23, 19 and 17 as his three performances. In the first night of a back-to-back, Wood scored 15, 27 and 8 points, increasing his scoring in two contests by eight and nine points the following night, while decreasing by eight in another.
Wood averages 27.3 MPG in back-to-backs this season. He has played 20, 28 and 33 minutes in the second night of his three back-to-backs. When he plays 27 or more minutes this year, Wood averages 22.0 PPG across 24 contests. He has scored 20 or more points in 18-of-24 games, leading me to play him on the point prop.
Christian Wood to score 20+ Points is also a friendly bet to avoid being hooked and take the 20 and beyond. That pice has floated between -120 and -140 today. I would back that prop or take Wood Over 20.5 versus Golden State.
Pick: Christian Wood to score 20+ Points (1u)
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