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NBA Best Bets, Player Props, Feb. 28: Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks vs Toronto Raptors

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Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his favorite bet on the NBA slate, a player prop on the birthday boy himself, Luka Doncic!

Luka Doncic Triple-Double vs Raptors

In February, Doncic averages 34.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG, and 9.7 APG over 10 contests, but triple-doubled once. Today’s his 25th birthday, so we all hope for a memorable performance, especially following Max Strus’ half court winner over Dallas last night.

Over the last 10 games, Doncic recorded four double-doubles and fell one rebound or assist short of a triple-double in three of those four games (two of the past three).

Toronto is 5th in pace over the last five games and No. 1 in tempo over the past five home games. With Dallas on the second night of a back-to-back, Toronto should push the pace, meaning Doncic will find plenty of rebound and assist opportunities.

Doncic’s averaged 29.3 PPG, 11.0 APG, and 9.0 RPG over 38.6 MPG of six games with no rest (one triple-double). His 16.5 potential assists per game over February ranks 4th, along with 14.4 rebound chances per game, coming in at 25th over that 10-game span.

I played Doncic to triple-double at +390 odds on FanDuel. He is +320 on DraftKings and +333 on BetMGM, which are both playable for a 0.5 unit.

Some other fun bets I sprinkled for a few bucks where Doncic to be the Mavs’ first field goal at +240 and a same game parlay of Doncic triple-double, 30-plus points and first basket scorer +3200 odds.

Pick: Luka Doncic triple-double (0.5u)

Season Record: 22-13 (62.8%) +8.92u

Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight weekdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.