Wow! What a week it was in College Football. I feel like I say that every week, but the drama doesn’t stop from the ACC down to the American. This past weekend, Fernando Mendoza closed in on Julian Sayin after a game-winning drive at Penn State, while Marcel Reed and Ty Simpson nip at the heels of both.
Diego Pavia continues to claw back into the conversation, ranking ahead of Jeremiah Smith and Jeremiyah Love in terms of odds, but not for me. Check out this week’s Heisman rankings and who I stamp as the top five contenders entering Week 12.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!
Last Game: 238 total yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT at Penn State (27-24 win)
Season Stats: 2,342 passing yards, 240 rushing yards, 31 total TDs, 5 INTs
There’s nothing quite like a game-winning drive to boost your Heisman stock! Fernando Mendoza led a 80-yard drive capped off by an incredible throw and even better toe-tap of a catch to seal the 27-24 win at Penn State. That was the biggest trap game Indiana has faced all year and they survived, granted with bumps, bruises, and scratches, they survived.
Indiana is 10-0 for the second time in program history and back-to-back seasons. The Hoosiers have their final home game this weekend versus Wisconsin, who just beat Washington as double-digit underdogs. Indiana is aware and I think runs through Wisconsin and the Boilermakers in two weeks. As long as Mendoza doesn’t turn the ball over or Indiana loses, it’s harder to argue why he shouldn’t be the Heisman as opposed to why he should.
Last Game: 303 passing yards on 27/33, 1 TD, 1 INT vs Purdue (34-10 win)
Season Stats: 2,491 passing yards, 80.9 comp %, 24 TDs, 4 INTs
There’s not much else you can say with Julian Sayin’s performances other than masterclass or impressive each week. The Buckeyes quarterback threw for 300 yards in his third straight game and sixth on the season on 27-of-33 passing (81.8%). Granted the touchdown production wasn’t there against Purdue (1) and he tossed a pick, Sayin still had his third consecutive game and fourth in the past five with a completion percentage higher than 80%, to go along with 300-plus yards.
Ohio State still has three games remaining opposed to two for Indiana, so Sayin could overtake Mendoza. The Buckeyes host UCLA on NBC and Peacock this Saturday night at 7:30 PM ET, and stay at home for Rutgers the following week. As we all know, Ohio State goes to #18 Michigan to close out the season and that’s going to Sayin’s claim to fame game if he wants to win the Heisman and become a Buckeye legend.
Last Game: 221 passing yards on 20/29, 2 TDs at #22 Missouri (38-17 win)
Season Stats: 2,571 total yards, 62.3 comp %, 25 total TDs, 6 INTs
Texas A&M completed their three-game road trip with three wins to remain one of three undefeated teams in the country (Indiana, Ohio State). The Aggies are at home for two straight games versus South Carolina and Samford before heading to #10 Texas for the regular season finale.
If A&M goes 11-0 and wins the SEC Championship, Marcel Reed all of a sudden might have stolen the Heisman from Mendoza or Sayin. Reed has put up 25 total touchdowns and over 2,500 total yards this season. The first-year full-time starter has eight games of 200 or more passing yards and ran for a touchdown in five separate outings this season.
Last Game: 277 passing yards on 21/35, 1 TD vs LSU (20-9 win)
Season Stats: 2,461 passing yards, 66.9 completion %, 23 total TDs, 1 INTs
Ty Simpson didn’t hurt or help his Heisman campaign in a 20-9 home win over LSU. Simpson tossed 277 yards and one touchdown, but was barely efficient at 60% (21/35). Simpson hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since Vanderbilt (10/4) and the LSU contest was his first game without multiple touchdown passes. The Heisman race is between Mendoza and Sayin with Reed as the sleeper third option, which is why I dropped Simpson from No. 3 to 4.
Last Game: 10 receptions, 137 yards, 13.7 ypc, 1 TD at Purdue (34-10 win)
Season Stats: 65 receptions, 862 yards, 13.3 ypc, 11 total TDs
Jeremiah Smith didn’t have his first three-touchdown game of the season or 200 receiving yards, but he did record his first double-digit receptions game of his career. In two seasons with Ohio State, Smith has never had 10 catches in a game until last week at Purdue, which resulted in 137 yards and a touchdown.
Smith has scored in seven of nine games this season. He scored two touchdowns in four games, plus recorded 119 or more receiving yards in four. For the second time this year, he’s gone back-to-back games of 100 or more yards something he failed to do once last year. If Smith can close the season with five straight games of 100 or more yards and touchdowns in every game with a multi-score performance sprinkled in, then Smith has a chance.
Honorable Mentions
Last Game: 14 touches, 121 total yards, 2 rushing TDs vs Navy (49-10 win)
Season Stats: 988 rushing yards, 254 receiving yards, 16 total TDs
Jeremiyah Love failed to hit the 1,000-yard mark on the season against Navy, but his 988 rushing yards through nine games isn’t too shabby. Love totaled 94 rushing yards on 13 carries in a 49-10 win over Navy scoring two touchdowns and adding one reception for 27 yards. It was Love’s fifth-straight game with at least 86 rushing yards and seven of the past eight. It was also Love’s seventh game in the last eight contests with at least 100 total yards and one or more touchdowns.
With seven consecutive wins, Love is in the conversation, but not as a likely winner, just a contender. It would have taken a undefeated season with these numbers to be considered. It’s hard to perform much better than Love is, but Ashton Jeanty had 1,734 rushing yards through nine games with Boise State last season, almost doubling Love’s output this year. Love won’t win the award, but it’s still a fun ride to watch.
Last Game: 264 passing yards on 18/29, 3 TDs at Mississippi State (41-21 win)
Season Stats: 2,040 passing yards, 321 rushing yards, 22 total TDs, 2 INTs
Gunner Stockton moved from +2200 to +3000 after his 295-yard performance with three touchdowns against Mississippi State. Stockton will have a chance to throw his name in the Heisman hat at the last moment if he has a dominant showing against Texas, but odds are Stockton will finish outside the top five in voting as everywhere remembers the performance against Alabama.
Last Game: 377 passing yards, 112 rushing yards, 4 total TDs vs Auburn (45-38 OT win)
Season Stats: 2,440 passing yards, 613 rushing yards, 28 total TDs, 5 INTs
Diego Pavia kept his name in the Heisman race with another awesome performance of 489 total yards and four touchdowns. Vanderbilt trailed Auburn 17-3 at one point and 20-10 before rallying to a comeback win in OT, 45-38. Pavia went back-to-back weeks with three passing touchdowns, plus a rushing score, and that marked four consecutive games with a rushing touchdown.
I really don’t know his odds keep shortening, but I also didn’t think he could throw the ball. Well, Pavia has thrown the ball on a rope lately, but I will remain a bit of a hater and mention that three of his four touchdowns against Texas came in the fourth quarter down by 24. That is recency bias, but in the Heisman race, every game matters. I can’t see Pavia getting any top two-places vote, but maybe he could persuade a few voters to give him third-place.
Stock Up
Last Game: 238 total yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT at Penn State (27-24 win)
Season Stats: 2,342 passing yards, 240 rushing yards, 31 total TDs, 5 INTs
A game-winning touchdown drive to remain undefeated is one walk to raise your stock. There are only four players that saw their odds improve, or decrease, depending on how you’re looking at: Mendoza, Sayin, Reed, and Pavia — those are the four.
Of those four, Mendoza’s performance in Week 11 was the most memorable and arguably is one of the defining moments of the year in college football. I think he put himself in the drivers seat whereas oddsmakers make the difference between Sayin and Mendoza $15 per $100 bet, so not much of an edge for Sayin as the favorite.
Stock Down
Last Game: 333 passing yards on 23/33, 3 TDs vs The Citadel (49-0 win)
Season Stats: 2,356 passing yards, 434 rushing yards, 19 total TDs, 2 INTs
Trinidad Chambliss took on The Citadel and went from +2500 all the way out to +10000 at some sports books. Ole Miss won 49-0. Chambliss threw for three touchdowns and 333 yards, but oddsmakers weren’t impressed, but the remaining path isn’t impressive either with a home game versus Florida, then a road trip to Mississippi State following a bye week.
Chambliss has had a terrific season overall with 19 total touchdowns to two interceptions in relief of Austin Simmons, but Chambliss is officially cooked for the Heisman.
My Heisman Picks
I picked Carson Beck and Dante Moore to pick the Heisman in the first four weeks of the season and both are over with. Two weeks ago, I added Fernando Mendoza (+260) and the Indiana Hoosiers to win the championship (+600).
With Mendoza’s 80-yard comeback drive to win at Penn State, I only endorse him more. Indiana hosts Wisconsin, and ends the season at Purdue. Wisconsin has gotten frisky and just beat Washington, while Purdue is in the gutter, but will give Indiana its best effort. I think the trap game is behind Indiana and the Hoosiers roll their next two opponents and rest starters in the second half against Purdue as they prepare for Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.
If you are looking for help with your weekly College Football picks, NBC Sports has you covered with game odds, betting tools, and player prop projections.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
- Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
