Congratulations to Keegan Bradley for winning his second tournament of the season! I was spot on with the theory that long shots win the Travelers Championship, but I didn’t pick the right long shot. This week, we turn our attention to Detroit Country Club for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Most of the top players on the PGA Tour rest this week, with the Rocket Mortgage not being a designated event. However, this field still features eight of the world’s top 30 golfers.
Detroit Country Club is relatively new on the PGA Tour circuit but has been around since 1899. I walked the course for most Rocket Mortgage tournaments while working in Detroit. I’ve gathered from my experience here that the course is super easy.
The Donald Ross-designed course may look nice but doesn’t offer many penalties for wayward golf. Sure, the rough is thick and will be a little moist this week, but the bombers will dominate this course. Honestly, a flip wedge out of the rough isn’t the worst thing these golfers have faced in the past few weeks.
Tee it high and let it fly here. Errant tee shots aren’t punished much here. There’s only one hole where water comes into play. It’s one of those courses that you wonder why the Tour is playing here. Not many tough sports for the pros here, hence the low scores.
I’ve always believed you want to back some long shots in birdie fests. In the four years the event has been played here, we’ve seen Cam Davis win it at +12500, and Nate Lashley win it at +25000. Even with Finau and Bryson DeChambeau winning at short odds, those massive prices excite me about backing more long shots than usual. I will have my betting card on my Twitter page by Wednesday evening.
Key Metrics Correlated to Winning:
- Driving Distance
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- SG: Approach
- GIR Gained
- Proximity: 75-100 yards
- Proximity: 100-125 yards
- Birdie or Better Gained
- Scrambling
Bets to win the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Challenge
Tony Finau +1400
All eyes will be on Finau (+1400) as he looks to defend his title from last season. Rightfully so too. Max Homa is the highest-ranked player in the field but isn’t playing good golf right now. Finau is not only the defending champion; he is looking to add another multi-win season under his belt. I had Finau’s fair price around +1000, so I anything in that range, I was comfortable betting.
There hasn’t been much correlation with course history here. However, with Finau, when he excels at a specific course, he generally does pretty well at comp courses. He won at TPC Twin Cities, an excellent example of a comp course. He’s played well at the Shriners, another comp course in TPC Summerlin. Finau excels at courses that play as birdie fests which don’t penalize golfers for missing fairways.
Finau hasn’t been playing the best golf, but looking at his wins, there’s no real correlation between his form and winning. He had a few missed cuts and back-to-back finishes outside of the top 25 when he won the Northern Trust. He won the 3M Open but had a missed cut, T13, and a T28 in the weeks before. Even this season, when he won the Mexico Open, he finished outside the top 25 in the previous two events. Finau is a great golfer who plays great golf. He’s long off the tee and hits a ton of greens in regulation. He converts a lot of birdies and is a proven winner.
Carson Young +12500
Young’s name comes to mind when I think about golfers who are priced in the triple digits but can compete in a birdie fest. Young doesn’t necessarily fit the mold of a bomber by any means; he’s only averaging 299 yards per drive. However, he’s long enough to be dangerous, hits fairways and greens in regulation, and can go low.
He’s finished inside the top 20 in three birdie fest tournaments (Puerto Rico Open, Mexico Open, and Travelers). He should be full of confidence after his T15 in a designated event. Rocket Mortgage could become a putting contest, and Young has been rolling the rock proficiently.
When betting on a guy who is +12500, we only ask for a chance to win on Sunday.
