Non-bettors always seem shocked when I talk about betting (and beating) the preseason. ‘How can you bet on exhibition games’? ‘I don’t even know the guys on the field in the second half.’ ‘Boy, you really must be a degenerate gambler if you’re betting on NFL Preseason.’
That couldn’t be further from the truth. A sharp bettor’s mantra is fairly simple and nearly universal: ‘Bet when you have an edge. Pass when you don’t.’ That holds for regular-season NFL and it holds for preseason NFL as well. And there is no shortage of edges to find when it comes to betting August football.
In this two-part column, I’ll illustrate the strategies that wiseguys use to attack preseason football. In Part 1 (below), I’ll outline the basic market forces that create preseason point spreads and show Preseason Handicapping 101 methods to beat those point spreads. In Part 2 next week, I’ll take a Deep Dive into some ‘Advanced Betting Strategies’ for beating the NFL markets in August.
The single most basic premise for beating preseason football is this: ‘Don’t confuse a team’s regular-season capabilities with their preseason goals.’ Many of the elite teams – the Super Bowl contenders – aren’t looking to do anything in August except for staying healthy, with the notable exception of their preseason Week 3 ‘regular-season walkthrough’ when the starters often play into the third quarter.
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Preseason NFL handicapping 101 puts considerable focus on the quarterback rotations for each team. There are a number of ‘bet-on’ QB rotation situations. The markets like veteran QB’s going up against third-string defenders. The markets dislike inexperienced rookies or second-year players getting their first real work against NFL defenses.
In addition, there’s an enormous difference between the ‘statue’ type drop-back passing QBs and the more mobile QB’s in the second half of these games. Many of these preseason contests aren’t pretty to watch offensively in the latter stages. The third-string linemen aren’t a cohesive unit; the third-string receivers don’t know the routes well and aren’t loaded with playmakers. A mobile QB in the second half of these preseason games is worth far more than a ‘big-armed’ downfield passer.
Last, but not least, the markets love QB battles. A battle for the starting job attracts market attention. The coaching staff has a vested interest in calling passing plays to see what the QB’s can do, (as opposed to running the ball up the gut repeatedly, as many coaches do in the latter stages of these exhibitions).
A battle for the backup job is even better than a starting QB battle because the backup QB’s are likely to be facing backup defenders! Again, both QB’s in a backup battle has something to prove and the coaching staff is likely to take some downfield shots with their play calls. When you’ve got a backup QB battle brewing, you’re also likely to see competitive QB’s in the game for longer stretches.
Coaching track records are key when it comes to Preseason Handicapping 101 but beware of veteran coaches that ‘change their stripes’. Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin used to care about winning games in August and establishing a tone of success for the regular season. In recent years, without publicly stating anything, Tomlin’s supporters have been crushed.
Last, but not least, the NFL betting markets in August react strongly to one thing and one thing only – facts, not opinions. In the regular season, I’ll bet on games where we feel the betting markets are giving one team too much credit or another team not enough credit. These are my opinions; opinions that are strong enough to risk my hard-earned dollars to support.
But in the preseason, I’m betting on information and information only. That makes many games a very easy ‘pass’ – when there’s no strong info, there’s no wager to be made. That being said, in many cases, the coaches themselves are nice enough to tell me exactly what they intend to do. A coach who wants to “evaluate his depth” in any particular ballgame is generally not a coach that I want to wager on.....
