Rich Hribar and Raymond Summerlin bring you their best bets every Friday of the NFL season as well as a preview of Sunday Night Football. The preview is free, but the bets can only be found in the Rotoworld Season Pass. Don’t miss out on the action.
Rich: 38-35-1 season record (last week: 2-1)
Raymond: 29-37-3 season record (last week: 0-2)
All lines taken from the VI Consensus at VegasInsider.com Friday morning.
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Sunday Night Football – Chiefs @ Seahawks (+2.5) – 54.5-point total
Rich: Kansas City has scored at least 26 points in every game this season. That 14-game streak is the third longest in league history. To compound matters, the Seahawks’ defense is extremely lackluster. Since their Week 7 bye, Seattle has allowed the most offensive yardage in the league (3,076 yards), which ranks 27th in per game yardage allowed.
We know the Chiefs are likely to do their part offensively, but their games on the road have provided major fireworks this season. Kansas City road games average 73.4 combined points per game, the most in the league. Even if you remove the game versus the Rams, it is 68.2 points per game, which would still be the highest in the league.
The main culprit for that split is the Chiefs’ defense, which just has not traveled at all. On the road, the Chiefs have allowed 34.1 points per game (31st) as opposed to 20.1 per game at home (13th). The lowest combined score in a Kansas City road game this season has been 50 total points with the other six hitting 58-plus points scored by both teams. That 50-point total came back in Wek 3 in Denver, who just had a better defense then than Seattle has fielded since their bye. I like both teams to make this a back and forth game, betting this game total.
Pick: Over 54.5
Ray:
The second half of this season has been a nightmare I cannot pinch myself hard enough to escape. When a team you gave out at +7.5 loses by eight after closing at that number, it is probably time to call it a year, but there are still teams I like this week. Hopefully you all can bet against them and make some money. One of those sides plays on Sunday night.One of the few trends which has actually stayed positive this season has been fading teams off overtime, especially when they are at home. Since 2008, teams off an overtime game are 143-189-11 against the spread (43.1 percent) overall, and home teams are an even worse 54-90-7 ATS (37.5 percent). They are 3-10-1 this season if last week’s Ravens game is counted as the eight-point line it closed, according to my database, and not the 7.5 I gave out -- #TiltCity.
Seattle is an even worse position because the Chiefs are coming off a Thursday Night Game, meaning they are even more rested. Teams coming off an overtime game and facing a team which played on Thursday the week before are just 6-15 ATS (28.6 percent) since 2008.
I do not like that yet another trend has forced me to bet a short-road favorite, but the numbers and my gut says it is the right call. As Rich perfectly laid out, the over also is a good bet here.
Pick: Chiefs -2.5, Over 45.5
Read the rest of the column in the Rotoworld Season Pass...
