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The full Weekly Taste will be released in the next 48 hours or so, but in the meantime, I find it prudent to throw some gasolina on the FIREEE matchup we have on Thursday Night Football this week that is the Los Angeles Chargers at the Kansas City Chiefs. Not only is it arguably the best matchup of the Week 2 slate, but it very well might be the best we have on the TNF board all year!
*Note: You have heard me say shopping around is pivotal, especially in futures betting, so make sure you look to see what book is offering the more favorable odds.
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs | Over/Under 54.5
How many electric showdowns have these two given us in recent years? As a matter of fact, three of the last four LAC/KC contests have resulted in thrillers at the very end of regulation or OT, so it doesn’t really get much better than this. Make sure you bust open that piggy bank and get some bets down!
In four career games against these Chiefs, my 2022 MVP bet - Justin “Herbie Fully Loaded” Herbert - has dimed 10 pass tuddies against just two picks (plus three rushing scores), while putting up 1,130 passing yards. Although it’s highly likely the Bolts will be without their WR1 in Keenan “Keen Daddy” Allen, they still have enough weapons to take advantage of a defense that allowed them to score 28 and 30 points respectively in 2021. This same defense will be without starting rookie CB Trent McDuffie (replaced by Rashad Fenton) running opposite of man-handling press corner L’Jarius Sneed. Look for Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton, Josh Palmer, and Gerald Everett to pick up the slack in addition to Austin Ekeler.
Defensively, what LAC did not have last season was one of the premier edge players in the last 20 years in DE/OLB Khalil Mack. In addition to Mack, they brought in breakout Patriots CB J.C. Jackson, who is still highly questionable to play in this one (limited participant in Tuesday’s practice). The hype on this defense was delivered in Week 1 after picking off Raiders’ QB Derek Carr three times, as well as coming close to a few more. Plus, we can’t forget those SIX SACKS and NINE QB HITS. That could be great news for a Chiefs’ O-line that might be missing starting right guard Trey Smith.
In case you live under a rock, Patrick Mahomes lit up the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday like a Christmas Tree to the tune of 360 pass yards and five scores en route to dropping a 40 bean. While he showed no ill effects of missing T-Hilly, it certainly could be more of a factor against a much better defense than what he saw in Week 1. Since 2020, Hill played in three games against LA and notched 22 catches on 31 targets for 303 yards and three end zone visits. Aside from the production you need to replace, it’s the matchup nightmares he caused. Perhaps new WR JuJu Smith-Schuster could assist with that. At the end of the day though, we should still see Mahomes continue his recent success against this team (8 TD/3 INT last three games). Oh, I almost forgot, kicker Harrison Butker will be out which is a huge impact injury with the side and total.
If you have been paying attention to me this summer, you would know I’m ALL IN on the LA Chargers this season; division, conference, Super Bowl, and Herbert MVP. If that is going to happen, it’s a huge deal to grab this win. To me, LA is the better team with more mismatches. Tonight has the makings of a slow start to the game before these squads open it up. Grab the Bolts on the +4.5 if you want to, but I think they win outright in the under.
Prediction: Chargers cover (+4.5) and win (+176)
Prediction: Game UNDER 54.5 (-115)
Prediction: 1st Half UNDER 27.5 (-130)
Player Prop(s)
Justin Herbert O279.5 yards (-114)
Out of all the main sports books, this is easily the best number you can get. Herbert has 280 pass yards in three of his four matchups against KC. And even without Keen Daddy, I think Brandon Staley is going to have Herbie push the ball downfield against a weaker pass defense. Obviously, he stopped just shy at 279 yards in Week 1 against Vegas, and LA had 34 passing/31 rushing attempts, but it’s too early in the season to get worried. Herbert should be able to cook this defense, especially getting Austin Ekeler involved in the passing game.
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WHY THIS GAME MATTERS:
Obviously, this has a huge impact on the AFC West race (Currently: KC is +135. LAC is +180) especially early on, as well as the AFC race (Currently: KC is +450. LAC is +750). Whichever team wins or loses, this can create something of a seismic shift for a long while, at least until these teams meet again in *checks calendar* Week 11. With the Chargers and Chiefs both regarded as two of the top teams in AFC as well as the NFL, whoever wins the AFC West will ultimately shape the playoff race and seeding format. However, the biggest impact of this game could disrupt a different market: the MVP race.
Historically, the MVP is a QB award. But not just any QB. It usually goes to the signal caller on one of the best teams which almost always results in a top one or two seed of the conference. Therefore, winning the division is imperative. Of course, stats are a gigantic factor as well, something Herbert (+750) and Mahomes (+600) both accumulate in spades. Winning Thursday’s game could have a huge domino effect on what kind of prices you will see the rest of the year, in addition to who actually wins. So if you like either of these two for the MVP award, the best bet is to grab them prior to the game.
Summary:
Prediction: Chargers cover (+4.5) and win (+176)
Prediction: Game UNDER 54.5 (-115)
Prediction: 1st Half UNDER 27.5 (-130)
Justin Herbert OVER 279.5 yards (-114)
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
