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We’ve ditched the dirt and are on to grass season on the ATP and WTA tours. There are two small events happening right now in Europe that I’m seeing a ton of value in, and without further ado I’ll get into them now.
Daniil Medvedev (-278) vs. Roberto Bautista Agut (+210)
For as lopsided as this head-to-head is, it’s hard to read this match. Bautista Agut comes in 3-0 lifetime against Medvedev, winning all three on hardcourts and twice at a Masters 1000 where the stakes are high. Yet he comes in a deserving underdog here.
With that being said, I think we need to show a little love to the former World No. 9 and current World No. 20. His pricing in his first two matches made sense given his lack of form, but at this point is is clear as day that RBA is operating like normal. He was dominant against Marton Fucsovics and dominant after dropping the first set to a dangerous Tallon Griekspoor on Wednesday.
Bautista Agut is an excellent grass player, going 45-23 across all competition levels in his career and reaching the semis of Wimbledon. While Medvedev has picked up the surface rather quickly and also sports a great grass-court pedigree, it’s hard to say he would have any sort of edge over the Spaniard due to the surface alone.
With both players as comfortable on grass as they are on a hardcourt and with RBA playing the way he’s playing, it’s hard for me to justify this very cheap price on him to take a set. This is an excellent value.
Edge: Bautista Agut +1.5 Sets (-125)
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Ryan Peniston (+150) vs. Filip Krajinovic (-189)
Peniston was straight dominating Francisco Cerundolo, a player he had far more grass court experience than, until he tensed up in the second and third sets, totally throwing away the match. He found a late burst of bravery and confidence to get across the finish line, and will now face a similarly grass-averse player in Krajinovic.
The difference is that the young Cerundolo may one day develop into an excellent grass-court player. Krajinovic, now in his thirties, entered the week without a single win on grass before beating an out-of-form Jenson Brooksby and finding himself on the receiving end of a couple of donations by the aging Sam Querrey.
This will be a totally different scenario for Krajinovic, who will find himself matched with an excellent defender in Peniston who will pepper his backhand, the weaker of the two wings for the Serb. Peniston had some issues with Cerundolo simply overpowering him on Wednesday, but won’t find nearly as much power in Krajinovic.
Edge: Peniston +150
