Welcome back. Football is finally here.
2016 comes in with a roar, as Notre Dame’s new season begins with a spotlight directly on Brian Kelly’s program, a primetime date with another traditional power, as the Irish head to Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns. A year after embarrassing Texas and landing an early-round knockout in the season opener, Charlie Strong’s third team—still young, but growing more talented by the year—looks to avenge the low-point of a challenging, five-win season.
Joining us again is Wescott Eberts of Burnt Orange Nation. In a busy week with plenty of action heading into Sunday, he was kind enough to get us ready for the big game.
Let’s start big picture: What’s the feeling heading into the season? Optimism? Dread? Uncertainty? In year three of the rebuild, do you have a feeling at the moment of what constitutes a successful season?
I think the feeling heading into the season is a mix of optimism with some lurking dread -- there’s so much young talent on this team and an exciting new offense, but there are still areas of concern and an extremely difficult schedule looming, especially to start the season.
Given the team’s previous inconsistencies, there’s also a lot of uncertainty, which makes it hard to predict how to season is going to play out.
Beyond a purely holistic evaluation of improvement, a successful season would need to include at least seven wins, but more likely eight to ensure that Strong comes back for his fourth season. Any measurement of a successful season includes the stipulation that the Longhorns stop getting blown out so often.
That all but leads us into the quarterbacks. Senior Tyrone Swoopes and freshman Shane Buechele continue to share first-team reps and Charlie Strong says he “kind of” knows what he wants to do. Is there a world where both guys don’t play against Notre Dame? Can you give us the cliff notes on the difference between these two quarterbacks? And how quickly do you expect this job to become Buechele’s?
The only way that both quarterbacks don’t play in the opener is if Swoopes wins the starting job, as many currently expect, and plays so well that the coaches don’t have a compelling reason to get Buechele the first game action of his Texas career.
Coming in to fall camp, it seemed like the job was Buechele’s to lose, but Swoopes has been better than expected, so it’s possible that Buechele could end up being the back up for the entire season.
Swoopes has the advantage in experience, size, and arm strength, while Buechele ran the offense faster in the spring game, has better poise in the pocket, and has better touch and accuracy.
How has the transition gone to new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert? Last year, Notre Dame shut down the Longhorn offense and it cost coordinator Shawn Watson his job. Heading into the season, does the spread fit this personnel better?
By all accounts, the transition has gone well, though there is still a little bit of a learning curve in terms of getting the offense to run at the speed Gilbert wants it to run at. A couple things that have helped the ‘Horns get used to the new offense are the fact that this is now the fourth time that Gilbert has installed his offense in the last five years and there is no playbook, so this is an extremely simple attack.
There’s no question that the new offense fits the personnel better -- it takes pressure off of the offensive line in pass protection by using a lot of run-pass options, it attacks defenses with vertical routes that take advantage of the speed at wide receiver, the running backs benefit from a defense that is spread more widely, and the quarterbacks don’t have to carry the burden of making the complicated reads demanded by the West Coast elements of Watson’s offense.
Notre Dame certainly made some preseason news with it’s eventful evening that ended with six arrests and the dismissal of Max Redfield. How has the offseason / preseason treated the Longhorns? It looks like a few injuries have hit the starting lineup. Will Texas be at full strength when the Irish come to town?
The offseason featured some attrition for the Longhorns, but the good news for Texas is that none of those players were expected to contribute. The additions are the bigger story, as Strong was able to land four former Baylor signees, including the nation’s No. 4 wide receiver in Devin Duvernay, who has run a verified 4.38 40-yard dash. In July, the big news was securing the services of graduate transfer kicker Trent Domingue from LSU, who fills a big hole.
During fall camp, the ‘Horns have been a bit banged up, with the most significant injuries ankle sprains to three members of the starting offensive line -- center Zach Shackelford, left guard Patrick Vahe, and right tackle Tristan Nickelson. By the time the opener rolls around, Nickelson should be back, but it’s unclear whether Shackelford and Vahe will be healthy.
Charlie Strong has hung his hat on his defensive reputation. But last year, the Longhorns were soft against the run—and that looks like another weakness considering the attrition on the defensive line. Is that the weak spot of this defense? Against what looks like the strength of Notre Dame’s offense, do you see this being the matchup to watch?
With the return of only three scholarship defensive tackles, the run defense will once again be a concern for Texas, though improved play at defensive end and linebacker should relieve some pressure there. One major question is whether Strong opts to change his preferred defensive approach -- he typically likes to play odd fronts with coverage behind it designed to disallow big plays, but the 2016 Longhorns defense may need to be more aggressive in committing to even fronts that are less likely to allow so much running room for opposing backs.
How big of a game is this? Two traditional powers, a year after an embarrassing loss and a Sunday evening time slot that’ll have the entire college football world watching. It doesn’t “matter” when it comes to conference play, but how is this one being viewed?
This is being viewed not only as a huge opportunity for Texas, but also a high-stakes game. As you mention, the eyes of the college football world will be on Austin on September 4 and since this is a make-or-break year for Strong, the results of this game will set the early narrative for the season.
If Notre Dame wins going away once again, there will be a lot of talk about how Texas hasn’t improved enough and how the 2016 season could once again go off the rails.
In addition, there will be some important recruiting targets in attendance, including the nation’s No. 3 player in defensive tackle Marvin Wilson and one of the top offensive tackles in the country, Wilson’s teammate Walker Little. Both players want to see the Longhorns win this season before deciding whether or not to pledge to Strong, so their presence makes the stakes even higher.
The Irish are three-point road favorites, a surprising number when you consider how this went last year, but not when you think of how Notre Dame struggled on the road, the talent Texas has coming back and the type of atmosphere they’ll face.
How do you see this one going? Or if you’re not inclined to make a pick, give me one or two factors that’ll determine whether Texas starts their season with a win or the Irish leave Austin with a victory.
Honestly, I don’t have any idea how the game is going to go and I don’t think that Strong or his staff have any idea, either. There are simply too many young players and too many questions to answer to be able to predict the outcome with any confidence.
Forced to make a prediction, I think Notre Dame wins in a game that is much closer than last season’s blowout.
***
Spend some time this week checking things out at Burnt Orange Nation -- or give Wescott a follow on Twitter @SBN_Wescott.
