Nobody needs to tell James Franklin what’s at stake this weekend in Happy Valley. He knows. Oregon vs. Penn State is a big game, which means it’s also a big opportunity to change the narrative that James Franklin can’t win The Big One.
Franklin’s Nittany Lions are 1-15 during his tenure at Penn State when facing teams ranked in the top five of the AP college football poll. That stat will undoubtedly come up again this week — even though, due to a twist of fate that some may call East Coast bias, the Nittany Lions’ next opponent ranks just outside of the top five. Oregon checked in at No. 6 this week ahead of its trip to State College.
So, no. It technically wouldn’t improve that oft-cited statistic. But a win over Dan Lanning’s high-powered Ducks would go a long way toward proving that this particular Penn State team is different, that this veteran-laden roster has what it takes to win the Big Ten and make a deep postseason run. That this head coach can be the one to lead this storied program to its first national title in nearly 40 years.
For Penn State, it often feels like the entire season comes down to two or three games. The Nittany Lions almost always beat every team they’re supposed to, but their season is defined by games against the sport’s elite — like Ohio State (for the entirety of Franklin’s tenure) and Michigan (as of late). Now that Oregon is in the Big Ten, add the Ducks to the list, too. They beat Penn State, 45-37, in last year’s Big Ten Championship Game.
It is no longer about Penn State being competitive against the best of the best. The Nittany Lions have to actually figure out ways to beat them to truly enter college football’s uppermost echelon.
“You are fighting, scratching, clawing to get there,” Franklin told NBC Sports this offseason. “It’s hard for programs outside of the top 25 to get into the top 25. When you get into the top 25, it’s hard to get into the top 15. But I would make the argument that when you get up into the top four to five teams in college football, those gaps between the top four to five and the top 15 is much more significant than any other area.”
The gap between meeting and failing national title expectations is big, but that leap is decided by the tiniest margins. Differences like a couple of coaching decisions or play calls in key moments. One unbelievable play made by an incredible athlete against one not-quite-as-incredible defender. The smallest of small things separate championship-caliber teams from the ones that finish 10-2.
Penn State is trying to close that gap. It went out and plucked Ohio State’s defensive coordinator away the very same week the Buckeyes hoisted the national championship trophy. Jim Knowles is the highest-paid coordinator in the country, a fact that speaks to Penn State’s commitment to football and the alignment it now has from its university president, athletic director and head coach. Franklin said he has never had this kind of support before in his 11-plus seasons at the helm.
The Nittany Lions were able to retain many key pieces from a team that reached the semifinals of the College Football Playoff a year ago — led by their quarterback, their two star running backs, and their defensive game-wreckers. Those players said they want to run it back for a chance to win it all, much like we saw with Ohio State last year and Michigan the season before.
So, the expectations in Happy Valley couldn’t be higher. It’s very much a national-title-or-bust kind of feeling.
“I’m not going to act like there’s no pressure,” Franklin said. “But I would also say that if you’re living a lifestyle as the head coach where you feel the pressure all the time, then you probably shouldn’t be the head coach. If you’re the starting quarterback at Penn State and you’re constantly feeling that pressure, then you probably shouldn’t be the quarterback at Penn State. There’s just part of this that when you decide to come to a place like Penn State, this is what comes with it.
“You don’t fill up a 107,000-seat stadium consistently like we do without people being passionate and fanatical, right? So, this is why you choose Penn State. It’s why I came here as the head coach, to have these types of opportunities and to play these type of games. We chose this, and I think that that’s an important reminder for all of us.”
Franklin said that Penn State’s level of consistency over the past nine years has been the best in program history since the late 1970s. The Nittany Lions have averaged better than 10 wins per year over that span (minus the COVID-impacted 2020 season and including postseason results). But the fans don’t focus on the double-digit wins. They focus on the few losses.
“Those close losses can be really difficult for the fan base and alumni to deal with because you feel so close,” Franklin said. “For us, we’re going to focus on the positives and then continue to say, ‘What are some of the decisions that we need to make? How can we be strategic in the hires and the people in the schemes to put our university and our players and our athletic department in the best position to be successful?’”
This season’s success may come down to the answers to two such questions. Will Knowles’ defense be the difference-maker against the sport’s most creative and explosive offenses? And will the new additions to the wide receiver corps allow for a productive and perhaps prolific passing attack? Saturday’s game against Oregon will be the first chance to see actual results against the kind of team that should be an appropriate barometer.
But Saturday is also only the first of multiple tests this season. There’s a trip to Ohio State in early November and a home game against Indiana right afterward that the Nittany Lions cannot overlook. Then, they hope to make and advance through the College Football Playoff. It would take three or four big wins in big games to get to the actual biggest one on the final Monday night of the season. But in order to begin to change a narrative, you have to first win one big game.
“When we have the ability to finish the job,” Franklin said, “then I think that complete story can be told.”
