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This article outlines the best daily fantasy MLB plays of the day at every position. We take a comprehensive look to uncover these core recommendations, factoring respective salaries into the analysis.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
The Wrigley winds are crazy today with gusts over 35-mph. It’s possible they’ll have to call it off. If not, fly balls will be an adventure (and won’t go over the fence).
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PITCHER
Top Play: Zack Wheeler – Phillies (vs Orioles)
The Orioles aren’t as soft as you might think. They have a roughly league average offense in the second half. Even so, Wheeler easily projects to lead the slate in both innings pitched and strikeouts. He almost always finishes six frames and often pitches beyond the seventh inning. Despite his status as the priciest pitcher in the slate, he’s also one of the better values.
Pivot: Kyle Hendricks – Cubs (vs Twins)
At Wrigley Field, 20-mph sustained winds aren’t uncommon. Today, they’re nearly double that and blowing in to boot. I’m not sure it’s actually a good idea to use either Hendricks or Twins starter Joe Ryan in such conditions, but we can at least be reasonably confident they won’t cough up home runs. Whether or not their fielders can catch fly balls is another matter. Such winds may help pad both pitcher’s strikeout totals.
Also Consider: Joe Ryan, Luis Garcia, Walker Buehler, Chris Sale, Ian Anderson, Chris Flexen, Cole Irvin
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CATCHER
Top Play: Will Smith – Dodgers (at German Marquez)
Smith disappointed at Coors Field yesterday, though that obviously doesn’t change the quality of the matchup. With his frequently well-struck fly balls, he’s well-suited to hitting in altitude. He also has enough lift in his swing to punish ground ball pitchers like Marquez.
Pivot: Austin Nola – Padres (vs Scott Kazmir)
The Padres are hobbling towards the finish line. The Giants have developed a bit of a limp too. They have the ghost of Kazmir’s past on the bump, and all of their best relievers were called upon yesterday. Kazmir pitched passably with the Giants Triple-A affiliate, posting a 4.61 ERA, 8.20 K/9, and 3.08 BB/9. I don’t have a recent report on his velocity. He was at 92-mph earlier in the season. Nola’s on a nice five-game sprint which is a nice sign of life from an underperforming catcher. He’s dealt with nagging injuries since before the season even began. He has four extra base hits in his last 21 plate appearances including a home run yesterday.
Also Consider: Buster Posey, J.T. Realmuto, Gary Sanchez, Elias Diaz, Omar Narvaez, Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy, Cal Raleigh
FIRST BASE
Top Play: Freddie Freeman – Braves (at Merrill Kelly)
As with yesterday, when Freeman returned only passable value, this is looking more like a multi-hit and run production play than a bid for power outcomes. A dinger is certainly possible – Freeman’s longball odds are comparable to the best non-Ohtani first basemen. It’s just not the most obvious path to production for him. That’s actually a good thing as it implies a wide range of positive outcomes, marking him as a high floor, high ceiling alternative to all-or-nothing plays like Ohtani.
Pivot: J.T. Realmuto – Phillies (vs Keegan Akin)
This is a DraftKings-specific recommendation. What’s pivot-ish about this is the chosen position for Realmuto. He’ll be a popular catcher today, but very few entrants will pop him in the first base slot. That creates leverage for a catcher who projects as a similar dollar-for-dollar value as the first base top play candidates. It’s also a little like betting on a difficult parlay. You need Realmuto to spike – he matches well against Akin – and you need whoever you pick as your catcher to perform well. Land both, and you could be on your way to a GPP win. You *just* need eight other spots to pop!
Also Consider: Shohei Ohtani, Brandon Belt, Max Muncy, Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, C.J. Cron, Luke Voit, Anthony Rizzo, JJared Walsh, Yuli Gurriel, Daniel Vogelbach
SECOND BASE
Top Play: Trea Turner – Dodgers (at Marquez)
Turner is performing well with the Dodgers, yet he’s delivered mystifyingly mild DFS results compared with his Nationals tenure. He’s a perfect Coors Field visitor with his speed, all-fields approach, and tangible pop. He’s always among the likeliest to fill the boxscore.
Pivot: Luis Arraez – Twins (at Hendricks)
As is often the case, Arraez has strong multi-hit potential while batting leadoff for the Twins. With the wild winds, it’s difficult to sense how either team will perform on the run-production front. Arraez is liable to keep the ball on the ground. What balls he does hit in the air could safely fall in front of outfielders. An otherwise empty two- or three-hit game is not improbable. Hopefully, the scorers are forgiving when assigning errors.
Also Consider: Jose Altuve, Ozzie Albies, Ketel Marte, Jean Segura, Abraham Toro, Tommy Edman, Javier Baez, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, Nick Solak, Jed Lowrie, Tommy La Stella
THIRD BASE
Top Play: Alex Bregman – Astros (at Janson Junk)
Junk is effectively a typical middle reliever being asked to provide a couple extra innings. He doesn’t have an out-inducing offering. The Astros could chase him early and will almost certainly crack into an exploitable Angels bullpen by the fifth inning. Bregman remains underpriced for his role and talent. If you don’t need the savings, then Manny Machado versus Kazmir is mighty tempting.
Pivot: J.D. Davis – Mets (at Sale)
Davis has a difficult matchup. He makes up for it with a mid-lineup role, above average production, and a bargain basement price tag. He’d still be playable if priced 50-percent higher. It’s not that specific positive outcomes are likely – again, even a pseudo-rusty Sale is a challenging opponent. The draw is the potential to jump on a mistake coupled with his price tag. There is substitution risk later in the game.
Also Consider: Manny Machado, Justin Turner, Rafael Devers, Austin Riley, Matt Chapman, DJ LeMahieu, Evan Longoria,
SHORTSTOP
Top Play: Corey Seager – Dodgers (at Marquez)
Just like yesterday, Seager is underpriced for a visit to Coors Field. The Dodgers need to crack through Marquez before Seager has appreciable home run potential. He’s still a multi-hit and run production threat for the initial matchup. Only Turner and Freeman are better plays for multiple hits.
Pivot: Jake Cronenworth – Padres (vs Kazmir)
The big question here is: can Cronenworth hit through a broken finger? Is it affecting his performance, and if so, by how much? I can’t find a smoking gun to suggest he’s negatively affected, nor is it clear he’s fine. Cronenworth doesn’t have platoon splits so he should go relatively unrostered tonight against a southpaw. He’ll likely bat second.
Also Consider: Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Willy Adames, Gleyber Torres
OUTFIELD
Top Plays: Mookie Betts – Dodgers (at Marquez)
Aaron Judge – Yankees (vs Taylor Hearn)
Giancarlo Stanton – Yankees (vs Hearn)
Betts is among the projected leaders in hits and run production, and he has a healthy one-in-four chance to homer. He’s hit well over the last couple weeks, perhaps indicating his latest hip injection is effectively masking the pain from his bone spurs.
In New York, it’s a fairly standard recommendation of Judge and Stanton. Hearn is a left-hander with a modest fly ball skew, a type against which the Yankees dynamic duo thrives. For Hearn to come out ahead, he has to effectively locate at the bottom edges of the zone. Else, at least one of Judge or Stanton will probably homer.
Pivots: Chas McCormick – Astros (at Junk)
Eddie Rosario – Braves (at Kelly)
Gavin Lux – Dodgers (at Marquez)
We’re still standing with this Astros second-tier outfielder recommendation. McCormick drew the short straw yesterday. He’ll probably start today with one of Jose Siri or Jake Meyers flanking him. Both McCormick and Siri are massive bargains while Meyers is a more typical value. They all project for above average output against a middling pitcher like Junk.
Rosario appears to be on a hot streak, although his 0-for-4 yesterday was a disappointment. This is a neutral matchup at a nice price. The only shame is that he usually bats eighth. As for Lux, he’s also showing signs of life at the plate (last 30 PA: .500/.567/.731) and has the benefit of visiting Coors Field tonight. With Chris Taylor banged up, Lux is filling a super utility role. He makes too much ground ball contact to be a truly exciting match up against Marquez.
Also Consider: Fernando Tatis Jr., Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tuckers, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Jose Siri, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo, Kyle Schwarber, Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr., Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler, Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Tommy Pham, Wil Myers, Tyrone Taylor, Alex Verdugo
