The talk of the town at the moment seems to be about the baseballs that MLB are using. They’re being called “dead” baseballs, meaning that baseballs aren’t being hit as far, resulting in less home runs. I have no idea what’s truly going on, but players such as Chris Bassitt have publicly complained about the baseballs, so it’s hard to believe that there isn’t something going on with the baseballs. On top of all this, umps are making terrible calls left and right. Umpiring and baseballs. Two of the most necessary components of the game of baseball are being deemed as problematic to begin the 2022 season.
Nonetheless, even with all these early issues, baseball is still being played and there are still valuable players sitting on points league waiver wires waiting to be picked up. In this week’s points league waiver wire piece, I decided to dive into a few players who aren’t the most exciting pickups, but they’re certainly capable of helping your points league rosters. Let’s get into it.
Points League Options
(Players rostered in under 50 percent of ESPN leagues)
Josiah Gray SP, Nationals (32 percent rostered)
With a 2.41 ERA (2.75 FIP) and 22.8% K-BB over 198 career minor league innings pitched, it was clear why Gray was considered one of the more promising pitching prospects in baseball before his callup in 2021. However, in his rookie season, Gray struggled with consistency. Over 70 ⅔ innings, he finished with a 5.48 ERA (4.60 SIERA), a 1.36 WHIP, and a 76/33 K/BB (14 percent K-BB). He didn’t allow more than four earned runs in any of his first six MLB starts, but a poor stretch where he allowed at least five earned runs in four straight starts essentially ruined his surface numbers. Fortunately, we still got glimpses of his potential.
He struck out at least six batters in seven of his 13 starts, and both his curveball and slider had at least a 45 percent whiff rate and a 29.6 percent K-BB. As a prospect, his high-spin, mid-90s four-seam fastball was his bread and butter pitch. But in 2021, it had a .414 weighted on-base average against it. Moreover, 22 of his 33 walks came on his fastball. He just wasn’t able to command it as well as he would’ve liked to, but given the characteristics of his fastball, it’ll likely become a more effective pitch with experience. Sadly, to start his 2022 campaign, that hasn’t been the case.
He’s thrown 161 fastballs to begin 2022 and the pitch has a .418 weighted on-base average against it. Additionally, he’s continued to issue too many walks with his fastball as his command of the pitch looks even more shaky than it did in 2021. All in all, even though he’s still developing, Gray already has a ten-strikeout game in 2022 and he should continue to take steps forward as the season progresses. Be wary of potential blowup outings, but don’t be afraid to invest in the young right-hander.
Harrison Bader OF, Cardinals (20 percent rostered)
Speed is underrated in points leagues. Everyone wants the home runs and the star pitchers, but rostering guys who steal on a regular basis can give you a sneaky advantage over your league mates. Moreover, in points leagues that reward more than a point for a steal, you should be all over guys who have the potential to swipe double digit bags. Enter Harrison Bader. The 27-year-old outfielder has a 79.3 percent career steal rate as a major leaguer (46/58) and to start 2022, his sprint speed ranks in the 90th percentile and he’s already accumulated six steals on six attempts.
New Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol is seemingly a big believer in manufacturing runs with the help of steals, as the Cardinals currently lead MLB with 22 steals on 24 attempts. Playing on a team with this philosophy while possessing above-average speed and playing everyday in center field, Bader could finish with 20+ stolen bases by season’s end. On top of his speed, Bader has the potential to finish with a respectable batting average and hit double digit home runs in any given season. Put it all together and Bader could finish 2022 with at least ten home runs, 20+ steals, and a batting average around .260. That’s a fine fantasy option, regardless of the format. If you need some help in your outfield, give Bader a shot.
Jorge Lopez SP/RP, Orioles (27 percent rostered)
Wait, the guy who has a career 5.90 ERA over 361 ⅓ innings has fantasy appeal? Correct, for this is not the same Jorge Lopez who struggled to even have streamer appeal over 58 career starts. Over his first 11 ⅓ innings of 2022, Lopez has a 1.59 ERA (2.86 SIERA) and a career-high 30.4 percent strikeout rate. So, what’s changed?
He’s throwing harder than ever and he’s seemingly locked down the closer role in Baltimore. His sinker is averaging a career-high 98 mph and the average velocity on his curveball, slider, and changeup are all up by a couple miles per hour. On top of this, he’s been limiting hard contact (23.1 percent hard-hit rate) and contact in general (70.1 percent contact rate). All things considered, this is a completely different pitcher operating in a completely different role at 29-years-old. Playing for the Orioles will limit how many save opportunities he receives, but Lopez is probably one of the best relief pitching options sitting on most points league waiver wires.
Santiago Espinal 2B/3B, Blue Jays (10 percent rostered)
This offseason, it was reported that Espinal added about 15 pounds of muscle. He talked with the Blue Jays’ head of nutrition Jeremy Chiang and their head strength and conditioning coach Scott Weberg about mapping out a plan to add more muscle to his 5-foot-10 frame, and all of his hard work has apparently helped him at the plate. Through his first 54 batted ball events of the season, he has a career-high 106.9 maximum exit velocity, 9.3 percent barrel rate, and 44.4 percent hard-hit rate. He’s always been able to make contact at an above-average clip (career 83.6 percent contact rate) and now that his quality of contact has improved, he’s become a more productive hitter.
Through 69 at-bats, he’s slashing .261/.325/.435 with two home runs and three stolen bases on three attempts. And even though his sprint speed is below average (45th percentile), he clearly has good enough instincts on the basepaths to continue to steal a base here and there. He’s been the primary second baseman in Toronto to begin the season, his defense has been exceptional, he’s playing in one of the best lineups in MLB, there’s little stopping him from receiving a career-high workload, and his rostership percentage is very low. What’s not to like? I fully expect Espinal to have career-best numbers across the board by October.
Deep Points League Options
(Players rostered in under 10 percent of ESPN leagues)
Daniel Vogelbach 1B/DH, Pirates (7 percent rostered)
When I think about Daniel Vogelbach, the first thing that comes to mind is his power. At 6-feet, 270 pounds, Vogelbach is built like a tank. He’s already flashed big-time power upside at the major league level following his 30-home run campaign in 2019 and I feel like he can do even better. Aside from his power, Vogelbach has a very patient approach at the plate, which has led to a career 15.3 percent walk rate over 1,165 career plate appearances. At 29-years-old, the main thing that’s held Vogelbach back up to this point has been the lack of an everyday role on an annual basis and injuries.
Fortunately, to start 2022, he’s been the primary designated hitter for the Pirates – and he’s thrived early on. Over 61 at-bats, he has a strong .311/.373/.508 slash line with three home runs. As long as he can stay healthy, I don’t see anything stopping him from reaching at least 300 at-bats while mashing double digit home runs. If you’ve been searching for a dirt cheap source of power, Vogelbach makes for a rock solid waiver wire pickup.
Michael Pineda SP, Tigers (4 percent rostered)
It’s not all about upside in fantasy. Sure, trying to discover the next big breakout or betting on talented prospects is the more fun practice, but rostering players who have semi-reliable floors is an underappreciated aspect of fantasy baseball. Over his last 39 career starts, dating back to 2019, Pineda has given up more than three earned runs in a start just six times. In addition, since the beginning of 2020 (146 innings), he has a 3.58 ERA (4.36 SIERA). So, what’s fueled his ability to consistently limit runs over the past few seasons?
Strong command. His stuff won’t blow anyone away, but he knows how to routinely locate his changeup and slider at the bottom of the strike zone while locating his four-seam fastball accordingly. However, because he has so little room for error, he’ll likely endure several blowup outings as the season progresses. Nevertheless, in deep points leagues, Pineda should provide at least somewhat helpful depth in 2022.
