I swore I’d never do Power Rankings again. Don’t worry—I had my fingers crossed.
30 teams, six divisions, 162 games—this shouldn’t be too hard, right? Arguing about Power Rankings is half the fun of it, but I think we can all agree the Cubs belong at No. 1. Sure they lost a heartbreaker to the Cardinals on Opening Day (Mike Montgomery is no Aroldis Chapman), but the defending champs are still a marvel of baseball excellence. Personally, I think Vegas is selling them a bit short. The over/under for Bill Murray’s favorite team was set at a strangely conservative 96.5 wins.
The Cubs went 103-58 last season with Kyle Schwarber playing all of two games and $184 million outfielder Jason Heyward falling flat on his face. Kris Bryant is 25, folks. If anything, the Cubs are getting better, not worse. I’m not guaranteeing that the Cubs will go back-to-back. I’m just saying, the road to the 2017 World Series runs through Wrigley Field. Alright … let’s rank stuff.
1. Chicago Cubs
Want to know just how dominant the Cubs’ starting rotation is? Kyle Hendricks pitched to a league-leading 2.13 ERA last season … and he’s their fifth starter! Baseball is full of great power duos: Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano in Seattle, Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo in Baltimore, Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista in Toronto. But can any of them top what the Cubs have in Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo? Not likely.
2. Cleveland Indians
The Indians pushed the almighty Cubs to seven games in the World Series, and they did it with Carlos Carrasco hurt and an overworked Andrew Miller running on fumes. With Edwin Encarnacion joining what was already one of the league’s most potent lineups and Michael Brantley returning after missing most of last year with shoulder issues, the AL pennant is Cleveland’s to lose.
3. Boston Red Sox
No Papi? No problem. Andrew Benintendi is the early favorite for AL Rookie of the Year while Mookie Betts finished runner-up to Mike Trout in MVP voting last season. Cy Young winner Rick Porcello will probably regress after leading the league in run support last year but that’s why the Red Sox traded for Chris Sale. If a slimmed-down Pablo Sandoval can return to All-Star form, Boston will be tough to beat.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
While L.A.’s lineup can’t compare to the three teams ahead of them on this list (their .249 team average in 2016 ranked near the bottom of the league), the Dodgers still have Clayton Kershaw, whose accolades include three Cy Young awards and a 2.36 lifetime ERA. They also boast a top-three closer in Kenley Jansen. Let’s just hope Jansen’s arm doesn’t fall off after appearing in 78 games between the playoffs and regular season last year.
5. Washington Nationals
I still toss and turn at night wondering what happened to Bryce Harper’s bat last season. A year after winning the NL MVP, Harper watched his average shrink from .330 to .243 while his home run total dipped from 42 to 24. That’s puzzling, but Harper showed plenty of pop in spring training (eight homers in 58 at-bats) and kept the train rolling with a solo shot on Opening Day. He’ll be fine. The bullpen, led by first-time closer Blake Treinen, is what I’m most worried about.
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6. Houston Astros
At the time, it felt like Sport Illustrated was going out on a limb with this cover. But here we are, three years later and the Astros actually have the tools to make that lofty prediction a reality. Jose Altuve is still Houston’s rock but don’t sleep on George Springer. The 27-year-old set career-highs in home runs (29) and RBI (82) last year while finishing as a Gold Glove finalist in right field. He was also one of just three players to appear in all 162 games.
7. San Francisco Giants
Mark Melancon’s Giants debut was a full-on disaster, but let’s not lose sight of the bigger picture. After leading the league in blown saves a year ago, the Giants should be in much better hands with Melancon pitching the ninth inning. In fact, Melancon’s 98 saves since the start of 2015 are the most in MLB. I don’t know about you, but I’ll never get tired of watching Madison Bumgarner homer off former Cy Young winners.
8. New York Mets
Baseball has almost every obscure statistic you could think of, but I think we need one more: swag factor. The Mets would be one of the league leaders. Yoenis Cespedes practically invented swag with his super-human throws and towering home runs, not to mention his cool car collection. Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard look like they’re in an ‘80s glam metal band and Asdrubal Cabrera threw some of the best shade I’ve ever seen during spring training. Win or lose, the Fightin’ Jerry Seinfelds are going to be a heck of a lot of fun this year.
9. Toronto Blue Jays
Losing Edwin Encarnacion stings, but are the Blue Jays really that much worse without him? Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista are still tough outs and Toronto’s rotation was quietly one of the best in baseball last year. Which version of Marcus Stroman will show up in 2017: the one who pitched to a sluggish 4.37 ERA last year or the one who dominated the World Baseball Classic for Team USA? Fantasy owners are hoping it’s the latter.
10. Texas Rangers
The Rangers are another team Vegas isn’t showing enough respect. Despite leading the AL with 95 wins last year, their over/under was set at an insulting 85.5 wins. 2017 will be an important season for ace Yu Darvish and All-Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Both are in the last year of their contracts and could be in line for huge paydays next offseason. What will Rougned Odor do for an encore after leading Texas with 33 homers last year? Taking Corey Kluber deep twice on Opening Day is a good start.
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11. Seattle Mariners
The trio of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager combined for an absurd 112 homers last year including 45 at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. But home runs will only carry you so far. Seattle’s starting pitching wasn’t up to snuff last season and this year might not be much better with Drew Smyly hurt and Felix Hernandez on the decline. At least the M’s unlocked a gem in stud closer Edwin Diaz, who pitched to an elite 15.33 K/9 after his midseason call-up last year.
12. St. Louis Cardinals
Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright are still roaming the halls of Busch Stadium, but most of the Cardinals’ big contributors are under the age of 30. Randal Grichuk (25) stole the show on Opening Day while Carlos Martinez (25) and Stephen Piscotty (26) both cashed in with recent contract extensions. Aledmys Diaz is another name to watch for. He made the NL All-Star team by hitting .300 as a rookie last year. The Cubs are still a safe bet to win the NL Central, but the Cardinals have the talent to make a Wild Card push.
13. Baltimore Orioles
Adam Jones has watched his batting average drop four years in a row, but he dominated this spring, both in the Grapefruit League (.350 AVG in 20 at-bats) and at the WBC (two homers and this ridiculous catch). Aside from Jones, Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis are both capable of 40-plus homers while closer Zach Britton gave up just four earned runs all of last season. Let’s hope Buck Showalter learned his lesson with Britton after last year’s Wild Card debacle.
14. Detroit Tigers
Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander are in their mid-30s now but neither has shown any sign of slowing down. Verlander was robbed in AL Cy Young voting last year (at least according to Kate Upton) while Cabrera slugged his most homers since 2013. Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer was a pleasant surprise last season, contributing a 3.06 ERA while limiting opponents to a .231 average over 26 starts. The Tigers have bits and pieces, but not enough to really threaten Cleveland in the AL Central.
15. Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ve reached the point where Andrew McCutchen might be Pittsburgh’s third-best outfielder. Last year the former MVP set career-lows in almost every category including average (.256), OBP (.336), slugging percentage (.430) and steals (six). A healthy Gerrit Cole could solve some of the Pirates’ issues, though the bullpen and lineup are still riddled with question marks. Don’t be surprised if McCutchen finishes the year somewhere else.
16. New York Yankees
Masahiro Tanaka looked downright unhittable during spring training (0.38 ERA in six starts). Then Sunday happened. Maybe the Rays just caught Tanaka on a bad day but it’s never encouraging to see your ace tank on Opening Day. Gary Sanchez may have set the bar too high for himself by crushing 20 homers in only 53 games last season. Those are video game numbers from a guy who averaged just 14 homers a year in the minor leagues. Sanchez is definitely good, but not this good.
17. Colorado Rockies
Nolan Arenado fell asleep at the wheel during the WBC but came back to life by slugging three homers over his last five games in the Cactus League. He’ll be an MVP candidate when it’s all said and done. But here’s what I like most about this year’s Rockies’ squad: they can pitch! Jon Gray posted a higher K/9 than Chris Sale last year while Tyler Chatwood pitched to a sub-four ERA. The Rockies may not get to the playoffs this season, but it’s going to happen sooner than you think.
18. Tampa Bay Rays
Evan Longoria quietly had one of his best seasons last year, setting a career-high with 36 homers while driving in his most runs since 2011. It feels like Longoria has been around for as long as the Rays have been a franchise, but he’s still just 31. Alex Cobb struggled in his return from Tommy John surgery last year but boasts an impressive 3.44 ERA for his career. With Cobb entering the last year of his rookie contract, it’s a near certainty he’ll be wearing a new uniform by August.
19. Kansas City Royals
Vegas set Kansas City’s over/under for wins at 76.5. Seems low, doesn’t it? Not when you consider that four of the Royals’ starters—Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas—are in the last year of their contracts. All four could be moved by the trade deadline, especially if things aren’t going well out of the gate. It was a good run, but now it’s time for Kansas City to press the reset button.
20. Los Angeles Angels
On the one hand, the Angels have the best player on the planet, Mike Trout. On the other, their Opening Day starter was Ricky Nolasco. Even in Nolasco’s prime that would have been a risky undertaking. Despite his injury history, 37-year-old Albert Pujols has averaged 156 games over his last three seasons and has topped 100 RBI twice during that span. Where’s Father Time—stuck in freeway traffic?
21. Miami Marlins
Miami’s offense had a strange year in 2016. Despite finishing fourth in batting average (.263), the Marlins ranked just 27th in runs scored (655) and also 27th in slugging percentage (.394). A healthy Giancarlo Stanton would help in those areas, though I’m not sure that exists. Stanton has appeared in just 59.8 percent of Miami’s games over the last two seasons while battling groin and hand injuries. Without him, the Marlins stand little chance of competing for a Wild Card spot.
22. Arizona Diamondbacks
Zack Greinke’s fastball averaged 90.8 mph on Opening Day, a bit harder than the 88-89 mph he showcased during spring training but still not great. While Greinke continues his transformation from perennial Cy Young contender to fading veteran, A.J. Pollock is looking to rebound after missing most of last year with a broken elbow he suffered in spring training. He went 3-for-5 with a home run and this sensational catch in Sunday’s opener. So far, so good.
23. Atlanta Braves
New year, new ballpark … new team? Well that’s the hope. After stinking up the joint last year, the Braves seem to be in a better place heading into 2017. Rookie of the Year contender Dansby Swanson is manning shortstop and soon he’ll be joined across the diamond by top second base prospect Ozzie Albies. The Braves have speed (Ender Inciarte), power (Freddie Freeman) and a 43-year-old Bartolo Colon. What more could you ask for?
24. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies aren’t going to overwhelm you with their power—only six teams hit fewer home runs last season. But they do have a 20/20 threat in Odubel Herrera and an impressive stable of young arms featuring Jerad Eickhoff, Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez. On the flip side, the Phillies also have Clay Buchholz and a closer who posted an 8.33 ERA in the second half last season (Jeanmar Gomez). I guess we’ll call it even.
25. Oakland Athletics
It’s probably not a good sign when your big offseason signings are A) a guy who had trouble carving out a role on a 59-win team (Trevor Plouffe), B) last year’s MLB leader in blown saves (Santiago Casilla) and C) a 36-year-old who does little more than steal bases (Rajai Davis). It could be a while before the A’s are competitive again, though at least they have a few young building blocks in Ryon Healy and Jharel Cotton. And if home runs are what you’re looking for, Khris Davis has you covered.
26. Chicago White Sox
After trading Chris Sale and Adam Eaton over the winter, it looks like moving Jose Quintana will be the White Sox’s next order of business. The 28-year-old has led the team in ERA in two straight seasons and is coming off career-highs in wins (13) and strikeouts (181) in 2016. He’d be a strong get for a contender like Houston. Tim Anderson, Lucas Giolito and Yoan Moncada give Chicago hope for the future, but it’s going to take a few years for those seeds to sprout.
27. Milwaukee Brewers
Jonathan Villar put himself on the map last year by bashing 19 homers to go with a league-high 62 stolen bases. Unfortunately Villar’s emergence did little to mask Milwaukee’s other deficiencies including a subpar rotation and a lineup that was way more miss than hit. The Brewers made modest improvements this offseason by adding power bats Eric Thames and Travis Shaw, but there’s still work to be done in Milwaukee and lots of it.
28. Minnesota Twins
The Twins surprised by winning 83 games in 2015, then proceeded to win just 59 last year with almost the same roster. So where does the truth lie? Somewhere in between, but probably closer to 59 than 83. Miguel Sano hasn’t hit for average yet, Byron Buxton hasn’t hit at all and Joe Mauer batted a career-worst .261 last season. Brian Dozier broke out for 42 homers last year, but that’s not something the Twins can bank on every year. All signs point to another lean year in Minnesota.
29. Cincinnati Reds
Nothing says “rebuilding” like having Scott Feldman start Opening Day. The Reds are in for a long season, but rebuilding does have its perks. For one, we get to see Jose Peraza replace Brandon Phillips as the Reds’ everyday second baseman. The 22-year-old made 72 appearances in a utility role last year, hitting .324 with 21 steals on 31 attempts. 24-year-old Amir Garrett is also getting a chance with the big club. He earned his rotation spot by going 3-1 in the Cactus League. Looks like the youth movement is underway in Cincy.
30. San Diego Padres
Talk about cleaning house. The Padres traded most of their team last summer including Andrew Cashner, Matt Kemp, Drew Pomeranz, Fernando Rodney, James Shields and Melvin Upton. Now San Diego’s major league roster consists of Wil Myers and a bunch of rec league softball players. The Padres are probably headed for last place, but thanks to the seven million trades they’ve made over the last year, their farm system is bursting at the seams with prospects. Help is on the way.
