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2021 Record: (95-67)
1st Place, AL West
Team OPS: .783 (2nd)
Team ERA: 3.76 (7th)
What Went Right
The most polarizing and divisive franchise in baseball by a considerable margin, by virtue of an illegal sign-stealing scandal during their World Series title run back in 2017, the Astros remained certifiable playoff contenders in their second season with veteran manager Dusty Baker at the helm, finishing just two wins shy of capturing their second title in the last five years. They were a certifiable offensive juggernaut, averaging a major league-leading 5.33 runs per-game during the regular season, finishing with a whopping 95 regular-season victories and their fourth AL West division title in the last five seasons. They led the majors in runs scored (863), allowed the seventh-fewest (658) and recorded the fourth-best run differential (+205) in baseball last season.
The Astros’ offensive nucleus comprised of a mix of veteran stalwarts -- Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel and Alex Bregman -- and a pair of burgeoning stars just entering their primes -- Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez -- appear poised to continue pummeling the baseball for the next several season, but it seems implausible that they will be able to replace impending free agent shortstop Carlos Correa, who was arguably the most valuable position player in the game last season, thanks to his offensive production and defensive contributions. Per Baseball-Reference, the 27-year-old superstar led the majors in Wins Above Replacement (7.3 WAR), slashing .279/.366/.485 with 104 runs scored, a career-high 26 home runs and 92 RBI across 640 plate appearances. This is a talented offensive group that will score plenty of runs, especially if Bregman returns to form after dealing with multiple injuries, including a debilitating wrist injury -- which wound up requiring offseason surgery -- and sapped his offensive production late in the year. Tucker and Alvarez have already established themselves as certifiable fantasy superstars and will be the most likely beneficiaries of Correa’s departure as they should become the true centerpieces of this lineup moving forward.
What Went Wrong
The Astros starting pitching depth, which wasn’t an issue during their run to another division crown during the regular season, was pushed to the absolute brink in the playoffs, and ultimately led to their undoing in the World Series against the Braves. Electrifying staff ace Lance McCullers sustained a forearm injury in Game 4 of the ALDS versus the White Sox, which kept him sidelined for the remainder of the postseason, and put too much pressure on the rest of the staff to deliver under the bright lights of October baseball. The good news is that the talented 28-year-old righty is expected to be fully healthy in time for spring training and will serve as the staff ace moving forward. Young starters Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia stepped into prominent roles during the playoffs and are expected to be key components of the Astros’ rotation next season. The rest of the pitching staff remains a bit unsettled entering the offseason, especially since veteran right-handers Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke are all but certain to depart via free agency in the coming months. The Astros will also need to fortify their bullpen depth with right-hander’s Kendall Graveman, who was acquired from the division-rival Mariners in a mid-season trade, and Yimi Garcia, scooped up from the Marlins at the deadline as well, hitting free agency this offseason.
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Fantasy Slants
** One of the most consistently underrated sluggers in the entire fantasy landscape, Yuli Gurriel continues to tear the cover off the baseball as he enters his late thirties. The 37-year-old first baseman led the American League with a robust .319 batting average, finished with a career-best .383 on-base percentage and swatted 15 round-trippers across 600 plate appearances. A durable, high-volume fantasy contributor, Gurriel will continue to be discounted by fantasy managers due to his advanced age. Granted, the 37-year-old is more of an injury risk than some of the younger alternatives at the position, but he’s eclipsed 130 games played in each of the last four full seasons, and finds himself entrenched in a loaded lineup. Don’t let him slip on draft day next spring.
** Barring the addition of a prominent veteran starting pitcher during the offseason, right-hander Cristian Javier has a clear path to a permanent spot in the Astros’ starting rotation entering the 2022 campaign. The 24-year-old righty showed flashes of immense strikeout potential, especially in shorter bursts out of the Astros’ bullpen, and could take on an expanded role next season. He will need to iron out some of his issues he experienced with free passes and home runs if he’s going to succeed from a run prevention standpoint, but he’s capable of missing bats at an above-average rate and should be able to eclipse 130 innings as either a prototypical fifth starter or versatile swingman next season. He’s a potential breakout starting pitcher that fantasy managers should keep on their radar screens entering spring training.
** With speedster Myles Straw jettisoned to Cleveland at the trade deadline back in July, a trio of young outfielders -- Jose Siri, Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick -- have an opportunity to claim the everyday role in center field next spring. Each of them delivered signature moments during the postseason and appear to have a shot at establishing themselves as big-league regulars. From a fantasy perspective, Siri and Meyers are the most intriguing to monitor moving forward. Siri enjoyed a breakthrough campaign at Triple-A Sugar Land, launching 16 home runs and swiping 24 bases across 94 games before getting a shot with the Astros at the big-league level. Meanwhile, Meyers also broke out in the upper minors, slashing .343/.408/.598 with 16 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 68 games before being summoned to the majors for good in early August. He’s not expected to be ready for Opening Day after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, but has a chance to take over the job eventually next season.
** After converting 26 of his 28 regular-season save opportunities, and allowing just one run over nine postseason appearances, veteran righty Ryan Pressly will return as the Astros’ primary closer after his $10 option for the 2022 season vested upon reaching the 60-appearance threshold in late September. The 32-year-old righty has been prone to coughing up the occasional untimely home run, but has established himself as one of the most reliable closers in the entire fantasy landscape since taking over the role during the truncated 2020 season.
Key Free Agents: Carlos Correa, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Kendall Graveman, Yimi Garcia, Brooks Raley
Team Needs: How do the Astros possibly come close to replacing Correa? The first overall selection back in 2012 has been one of the franchises cornerstones over the last seven seasons and was one of the most valuable position players in baseball last season. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the organization look to trade for an established veteran as a short-term stopgap to attempt to solidify the position this offseason. The Astros also need to roll the dice on several back-end reclamation project starting pitchers and restock their bullpen with a couple high-leverage relievers as well.
