Philadelphia Phillies
2023 record: 90-72
Second place, NL East
Team OPS: .765 (6th in MLB)
Team ERA: 4.03 (12th in MLB)
What Went Right
Despite advancing to the World Series in 2022, the Phillies were still underestimated by prognosticators going into this season. They ended up benefiting from the Mets’ expensive failure and defeated the Braves in the NLDS for the second straight season. Zack Wheeler was once again the ace for the staff, logging 192 innings while posting a 3.61 ERA. Bryce Harper made an early return from Tommy John surgery and after a bit of a slow start, he put up 16 homers and a 1.095 OPS over his final 49 games before another impressive postseason showing. Kyle Schwarber set new career-highs in homers, RBI, and runs scored despite a .197 batting average. The Phillies had nine players reach double-digits in homers, including Nick Castellanos, who bounced back nicely from an underwhelming first season in Philadelphia. Matt Strahm proved to be a strong offseason acquisition while Cristopher Sánchez was a lifesaver for the rotation. The Phillies’ bullpen, led by the likes of Craig Kimbrel, José Alvarado, Gregory Soto, and breakthrough arm Jeff Hoffman, was one of the better units in the league. Meanwhile, the defense got valuable contributions from Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, and midseason call-up Johan Rojas.
What Went Wrong
The Phillies appeared poised for another trip to the World Series before dropping the final two games of the NLCS at home against the Diamondbacks. It was a disappointing ending to an otherwise exciting ride. Looking at the big picture of how the Phillies’ season played out, the team didn’t quite get the version of Trea Turner they thought they were getting after shelling out an 11-year, $300 million contract over the winter. His OPS was at .679 before Phillies fans gave him a standing ovation on August 4, which apparently helped spark a turnaround. Philadelphia sports fans get a bad rap sometimes. While Aaron Nola logged 32 starts for the third straight season, he was hit hard by the home run ball while posting a disappointing 4.46 ERA. The Phillies had to play the entire 2023 season without slugging first baseman Rhys Hoskins, who suffered a torn ACL in his left knee during spring training.
Fantasy Slants
**Maybe it’s not so quick and dirty in reality, but the August 4 ovation is an easy dividing line for Trea Turner’s first season in Philadelphia. Before August 4: .235 batting average, .657 OPS, 24-percent strikeout rate over 107 games. From August 4 on: .337 batting average, 16 home runs, 1.057 OPS, 16.6 percent strikeout rate over 48 games. The change with the strikeout rate is especially telling, and suggests that he could have been pressing with the weight of his new contract and his early struggles. Given his extensive track record, it’s fair to give him some benefit of the doubt. And while Turner didn’t steal as many bases as one have thought with the new rules, but he still went a perfect 34-for-34 between the regular season and postseason. The strong finish surely pushed Turner back into the first round in fantasy leagues next season, and it’s very possible he could reestablish himself as an early first-round player as he gets more comfortable during his second season in Philadelphia.
**Bryce Harper made it back from Tommy John surgery in just 160 days. It was a superhuman feat, but it’s not surprising that it took him a while to regain his power stroke. Harper had just three home runs through his first 58 games (251 plate appearances) before slugging 18 home runs over his final 68 regular season games and five through 13 postseason games. It’s safe to say that he’s back. While speed isn’t a major part of Harper’s game, he continues to do just enough on the stolen base front to justify a late first-round or early second-round selection in mixed fantasy leagues. Harper didn’t see any time in the outfield in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, as he learned a new challenge at first base and handled the transition well. The Phillies plan to keep him at first base moving forward, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing in fantasy leagues.
**How many pitchers are more trustworthy than Zack Wheeler in fantasy leagues going into next season? It should be a very, very small list. Wheeler has a 3.06 ERA across 101 starts with the Phillies and advanced metrics indicate that he pitched better than his 3.61 ERA from last season showed. Only five qualified starters bested his walk percentage and only 10 posted a higher strikeout percentage. He’s the whole package. Spencer Strider and Gerrit Cole figure to be the first two starters off the board in most leagues, but Wheeler has a strong case to be the next man up.
**What should we make of Aaron Nola at this point? The veteran right-hander reached 200 strikeouts for the fifth time in his career this season, but still qualified as a disappointment after posting a 4.46 ERA over 32 starts. In truth, he trended down in some key metrics (11.8 swinging strike rate, 29.6 CSW%) and gave up a career-high 32 homers along the way. However, he finished on a more positive note after making some mechanical changes, including a slide step out of the stretch and adjusting where he looks at the pitch clock. Nola has alternated between good and disappointing years, so we might be due for a good one, especially if he ends up with a better defense and pitching environment depending on where he signs this offseason.
**J.T. Realmuto put together his best fantasy season to date in 2022, but his .762 OPS from this season was his lowest since his first full season in the majors in 2015. His strikeout rate jumped to a career-high 25.6 percent, which contributed to the batting average slide. In the past, Realmuto’s speed justified reaching for him above his peers at the catcher position, but with the new rules, steals aren’t nearly as difficult to find as fantasy managers fill out the rest of their roster. The incentive simply isn’t the same. Realmuto is still one of the top fantasy catchers — of that there’s no doubt — but he’s no longer the runaway No. 1 choice.
Key Free Agents
Aaron Nola, Rhys Hoskins, Craig Kimbrel, Michael Lorenzen
Team Needs
It’s all about the rotation. As of now, Zack Wheeler is the unquestioned ace, but with Aaron Nola in free agency, next up on the depth chart are the likes of Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suarez. That’s just not going to get it done. And so, the Phillies will either need to re-sign Nola or secure a reasonable replacement.
The other needs aren’t as acute, but there’s some fallout from the Phillies’ decision to keep Bryce Harper at first base. Does the club keep the faith in Johan Rojas’ ability to hit even after he went 4-for-43 during the postseason? Do they add an outfield insurance policy who brings a bit more punch? The Phillies also figure to add some bullpen depth with Craig Kimbrel going back into free agency.
