This week’s Prospect Positional will cover outfielders; a position that contains many prospects who have MVP-caliber ceilings, two high-profile graduations due to call-ups and the player who received the largest signing bonus of any international amateur.
Note: All statistics are current through Sunday, June 8.
Updated top-20
| Updated | April 22 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Byron Buxton | Twins | New Britain (AA) |
| 2 | 4 | 10 | David Dahl | Rockies | Asheville (Low-A) |
| 3 | 5 | 8 | Joc Pederson | Dodgers | Albuquerque (AAA) |
| 4 | 9 | 16 | Jesse Winker | Reds | Bakersfield (High-A) |
| 5 | 7 | 7 | Clint Frazier | Indians | Lake County (Low-A) |
| 6 | 10 | N/R | Raimel Tapia | Rockies | Asheville (Low-A) |
| 7 | 8 | 11 | Austin Meadows | Pirates | N/A |
| 8 | 6 | 6 | Jorge Soler | Cubs | Tennessee (AA) |
| 9 | 12 | 17 | Brandon Nimmo | Mets | St. Lucie (High-A) |
| 10 | 16 | N/R | Hunter Renfroe | Padres | Lake Elsinore (High-A) |
| 11 | Bubble | N/R | Gabriel Guerrero | Mariners | High Desert (High-A) |
| 12 | 13 | 20 | Kyle Parker | Rockies | Colorado Springs (AAA) |
| 13 | 20 | 22 | Nick Williams | Rangers | Myrtle Beach (High-A) |
| 14 | 15 | 14 | Lewis Brinson | Rangers | Hickory (Low-A) |
| 15 | Bubble | N/R | Mikie Mahtook | Rays | Durham (AAA) |
| 16 | 18 | 18 | Rymer Liriano | Padres | San Antonio (AA) |
| 17 | 11 | N/R | Manuel Margot | Red Sox | Greenville (Low-A) |
| 18 | N/R | N/R | Josh Bell | Pirates | Bradenton (High-A) |
| 19 | 17 | N/R | Albert Almora | Cubs | Daytona (High-A) |
| 20 | N/R | N/R | Nomar Mazara | Rangers | Hickory (Low-A) |
Graduates
| April 22 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Oscar Taveras | Cardinals | N/A |
| 3 | 4 | Gregory Polanco | Pirates | N/A |
Oscar Taveras hit .325/.373/.524 with 15 doubles and seven home runs in 49 games with Triple-A Springfield, and has been promoted to St. Louis. Despite hitting a home run in his first game, he has not set the National League on fire, hitting just .212/.250/.433 with an OPS+ of 59 in his first nine games. More importantly, the soon-to-be 22-year old has held his own against major league pitching.
The notion that Gregory Polanco could learn something substantial by continuing to thoroughly dominate the pitching in Triple-A is absurd. He hit .347/.405/.540 with 17 doubles, five triples and seven home runs in 62 games with Triple-A Indianapolis. Polanco is ready for the bright lights of PNC Park and should produce immediately.
Small sample size
| Updated | April 22 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Byron Buxton | Twins | New Britain (AA) |
| 7 | 8 | 11 | Austin Meadows | Pirates | N/A |
| 8 | 6 | 6 | Jorge Soler | Cubs | Tennessee (AA) |
Byron Buxton was rusty during his five-game return from an injured wrist, hitting just .150/.150/.350 with eight strikeouts in 20 plate appearances before re-injuring his wrist. There is no timetable for his return and the Twins will be cautious with the health of the top prospect in baseball. Buxton will likely spend time in the Arizona Fall League in order to pick up extra at-bats this season in preparation for making his major league debut at some point in 2015.
The ninth overall pick in the 2013 draft, Austin Meadows is recovering from an injured hamstring, and should make his 2014 debut in mid-June. His ceiling is an outfielder that hits .300 with 15 home runs.
Jorge Soler hurt his hamstring during the first game of the 2014 season, returning five weeks later to appear in six more games and reinjure his hamstring. He has done well in the Double-A Southern League, hitting .333/.407/.625 with seven doubles in 27 plate appearances.
Superb performance
| Updated | April 22 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 4 | 10 | David Dahl | Rockies | Asheville (Low-A) |
| 3 | 5 | 8 | Joc Pederson | Dodgers | Albuquerque (AAA) |
| 4 | 9 | 16 | Jesse Winker | Reds | Bakersfield (High-A) |
| 9 | 12 | 17 | Brandon Nimmo | Mets | St. Lucie (High-A) |
| 11 | Bubble | N/R | Gabriel Guerrero | Mariners | High Desert (High-A) |
| 13 | 20 | 22 | Nick Williams | Rangers | Myrtle Beach (High-A) |
| 15 | Bubble | N/R | Mikie Mahtook | Rays | Durham (AAA) |
| 18 | N/R | N/R | Josh Bell | Pirates | Bradenton (High-A) |
After missing nearly all of the 2013 season due to a disciplinary issue (he missed a team flight) and a hamstring injury, David Dahl has lit up the Low-A South Atlantic League. He is hitting .278/.323/.515, and is on pace to exceed 30 doubles, 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He could see a promotion to High-A Modesto later this summer.
Joc Pederson has been stuck in the minor leagues due to more talented (and much more highly paid) players ahead of him in the major leagues, but his .332/.440/.623 line is not without flaws. He has 76 strikeouts in 266 plate appearances (28.6%) and has hit .361/.474/.674 while striking out 26.3% of the time against righties and .278/.374/.532 while striking out 33.0% of the time against lefties. He may be better suited as a platoon player who plays most of the time. If there is an opening in the outfield in LA, Pederson will be the first one promoted.
Jesse Winker lacks the tools to be a superstar, and will be a poor defensive left fielder, but he could hit .300 with 15-plus home runs and a high on-base percentage. He is hitting .308/.410/.538 for the season, which includes .348/.432/.489 at home, which is a (roughly) neutral offensive environment in the otherwise hitter-friendly California League. He could see time in the major leagues by the end of 2015.
When the Mets drafted Brandon Nimmo in 2011, he was viewed as a raw, toolsy outfield prospect that had a chance to stick in center field. There are still questions as to whether he will be a center fielder long term, but his bat has blossomed this year, as he has put up a .327/.448/.458 line for High-A St. Lucie. Nimmo is leading the Florida State League in walks, base percentage and runs, as well as being sixth in hits, and fourth in triples and batting average. Nimmo could find himself in Queens as soon as late 2015.
Gabriel Guerrero has the potential to hit above .300 with 20-plus home runs and 25-plus stolen bases in the major leagues, but he is better known for being the nephew of Vladimir Guerrero. He is hitting .324/.369/.470 for High-A High Desert, one of the best offensive environments in the major leagues, though he is hitting .307/.359/.400 while on the road. Guerrero won’t turn 21 until December, so the fact that he is doing so well while nearly three years younger than the average player in the California League is particularly impressive.
Nick Williams is hitting .305/.352/.468 and is roughly three years younger than the average player in the High-A Carolina League, and has hit .358/.403/.542 since the beginning of May. Williams has the tools to become a .330 hitter with 20-plus home runs, but will need to work to significantly decrease his strikeouts before he has a chance to advance. He has struck out in 20.9% of his plate appearances since the beginning of May, as opposed to 27.4% for the season.
Things have started to click for Mikie Mahtook at the best possible time – when he is on the doorstep of the major leagues. The 2011 first round pick out of LSU is hitting .322/.383/.498 with 21 doubles for the season, and projects as a .300 hitter with 30-plus doubles and 10-15 stolen bases.
Prior to being drafted in the second round of the 2011 draft, Josh Bell informed major league teams that he intended to honor his commitment to the University of Texas. Prior to the signing deadline, the Pirates and Bell agreed to a $5 million signing bonus. After a solid 2013 season in which he hit .279/.353/.453 with 37 doubles and 13 triples, Bell is hitting .310/.358/.473 with 13 doubles, three triples, and six home runs with High-A Bradenton. Bell projects as a .300 hitter with 20 home run power who plays a solid right field.
Holding serve
| Updated | April 22 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 7 | 7 | Clint Frazier | Indians | Lake County (Low-A) |
| 6 | 10 | N/R | Raimel Tapia | Rockies | Asheville (Low-A) |
| 12 | 13 | 20 | Kyle Parker | Rockies | Colorado Springs (AAA) |
| 14 | 15 | 14 | Lewis Brinson | Rangers | Hickory (Low-A) |
| 16 | 18 | 18 | Rymer Liriano | Padres | San Antonio (AA) |
| 17 | 11 | N/R | Manuel Margot | Red Sox | Greenville (Low-A) |
| 20 | N/R | N/R | Nomar Mazara | Rangers | Hickory (Low-A) |
Clint Frazier has lived up to his advanced billing as an ultra-aggressive hitter with the potential for power, hitting .241/.335/.335 with 64 strikeouts in 221 plate appearances. Frazier has shown some real improvement from 2013 to 2014 despite a precipitous drop in isolated power from .209 to .094, as his walk rate has increased from 8.7% to 12.2%, his strikeout rate has decreased from 31.1% to 29.0%, and his batting average is more sustainable, as his .297 batting average in 2013 was fueled by a .418 BABIP. He has a long ways to go, but Frazier has the talent to hit .290 with 20-plus home runs while playing center field.
Raimel Tapia has held his own in the Low-A South Atlantic League, hitting .304/.345/.439 for the season. He has done much better while playing at home, hitting .364/.389/.589 with nine doubles and five home runs while hitting .243/.303/.290 with three doubles and one triple on the road. The Asheville Tourists’ home park, McCormick Field, is particularly friendly to left-handed hitters, as it is only 297 feet down the right field line and 320 feet in the right-center field gap, though there is a 36 foot wall down the right field line. Tapia has the potential to hit .330 with 20 home runs, but will need to improve his plate discipline and production in more neutral offensive environments before he has a chance at a promotion.
Kyle Parker keeps hitting while waiting for his chance to play for the Rockies, hitting .285/.340/.465 for Triple-A Colorado Springs. He has the power to hit 20-plus home runs in the major leagues, but there are questions as to whether he will be able to hit above .275 at the major league level. He may see time with the Rockies once there is a need in right field or at first base.
Lewis Brinson missed nearly all of May with an injury to his quad, but has done well in his return to Low-A Hickory, hitting .286/.363/.420 for the season. While his isolated power has dropped from .190 to .134, his strikeout rate has dropped from 38.0% to 25.0% and his walk rate has slightly increased from 9.5% to 9.6%. He still strikes out too much due to poor pitch recognition, but he is a great defensive center fielder and could be a solid major leaguer if he is able to hit .250 with 10-15 home runs.
Rymer Liriano is hitting .271/.345/.485 through his first 61 games after missing all of 2013 due to a torn ulnar collateral ligament. His isolated power has increased from .126 in 2012 to .214 this season, and he has shown no ill effects from his missed season. He has the potential to hit .280 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases, so if he continues to hit, he could see time with the Padres in 2015.
Manuel Margot’s drop on this list was not a product of his production dropping, instead an effect of other players playing better. He has held his own in the Low-A South Atlantic League, hitting .249/.319/.362 with a 9.2% walk rate and a 13.0% strikeout rate as a 19-yer old. He has the potential to hit .300 with 5-10 home runs and 30-plus stolen bases, but will not reach the major leagues until 2016 at the earliest.
In 2011, Nomar Mazara received a $4.95 million signing bonus from the Texas Rangers, which is the largest signing bonus ever received by any international amateur. While Mazara’s .244/.315/.418 line in his second season with Low-A Hickory may not seem particularly impressive, it is his .308/.375/.615 line over the past 20 games that may indicate the beginning of a player who has the potential to hit .300 with 30-plus home runs figuring it out. Few players can match Mazara’s raw power, and it will be interesting to see if he can keep it rolling.
Struggling
| Updated | April 22 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 17 | N/R | Albert Almora | Cubs | Daytona (High-A) |
After putting up a superb line in 2013, hitting .329/.376/.466 with Low-A Kane County, Albert Almora has struggled in 2014, batting .250/.273/.333 for High-A Daytona. His walk rate has dropped from 6.3% in 2013 to 2.5% in 2014, while his strikeout rate has increased from 11.0% in 2013 to 12.6% in 2014. Almora projects as the Cubs’ center fielder of the future, but the former sixth overall pick will need to stay healthy and improve his performance.
On the Bubble (listed alphabetically)
| Updated | April 22 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubble | 21 | 12 | Jorge Bonifacio | Royals | Northwest Arkansas (AA) |
| Bubble | Bubble | N/R | Jake Marisnick | Marlins | New Orleans (AAA) |
| Bubble | N/R | N/R | Cam Perkins | Phillies | Lehigh Valley (AAA) |
| Bubble | N/R | N/R | Dalton Pompey | Blue Jays | Dunedin (High-A) |
| Bubble | Bubble | Adam Brett Walker | Twins | Fort Myers (High-A) |
Jorge Bonifacio has struggled mightily in 2014, hitting .238/.308/.345 for Double-A Northwest Arkansas, while experiencing a drop in walk rate (from 10.5% in AA in 2013 to 8.4%) and isolated power (from .140 to .106), while his strikeout rate was relatively flat (21.9% to 21.7%). The 21-year old still has a lot of time to develop, but it would be good to see some of his potential power show through during a game.
Due to his range in center field and above-average arm, Jake Marisnick’s real world potential outstrips his fantasy potential, but that does not mean that he is someone who should be ignored. Last season, he was hitting .294/.358/.502 as a 22-year old in Double-A when he was promoted to Miami, where he struggled, hitting just .183/.231/.248 in 118 plate appearances. He was assigned to Triple-A New Orleans for 2014 and started off poorly, hitting .182/.239/.273 during April. He has hit .315/.350/.462 since, raising his season line to .258/.301/.380. His long-term ceiling is a .280 hitter with 15 home runs and 20-plus stolen bases while playing a great center field.
Cam Perkins lacks above-average upside and may never be more than an average player, but he uses his elite hand-eye coordination to hit for a high average and pound doubles, hitting .339/.407/.482 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2014. He could be a corner outfielder who hits .300 with 30 doubles, though his lack of power could make him a fourth outfielder.
Dalton Pompey is the type of player who is drafted in the 16th round of the draft: high on tools, high on projection and a colossal gap between present and potential. He has been largely unimpressive prior to this season, where things have begun to click as he has hit .317/.395/.475 with nine doubles, four triples, six home runs and 22 stolen bases in 56 games. If his power fully develops, he could hit .300 with 20-plus home runs and 30-plus stolen bases while playing above-average defense in center field.
Adam Brett Walker’s game is simple: Hit the ball as far as humanly possible as often as possible. After a poor start during which he hit .204/.276/.331 with three doubles, five home runs and 45 strikeouts over his first 37 games with High-A Fort Myers, something clicked, and Walker has hit .333/.344/.677 with five doubles, nine home runs and 24 strikeouts in his next 24 games. Walker is roughly the league average age for the Florida State League, so he could be in line for a quick promotion to Double-A New Britain if he keeps hitting.
