Greene (elbow) will miss all of 2027 after surgery

It’s merely a procedural move with Greene slated to undergo season-ending elbow surgery. There should be a definitive update concerning the hard-throwing 27-year-old’s return timeline following the procedure.

The announcement comes after a meeting with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Thursday. The nature of the procedure won’t fully be known until it’s started, so the Reds are unable to give any specifics yet on how much time Greene will miss other than the remainder of the 2026 season. It’s a really tough break for the Reds and for fantasy managers who had held out hope that he’d be an impact contributor over the final two months of the season. He can be safely dropped in redraft leagues.

As former Yankees manager Joe Girardi was fond of saying, it’s not what you want. Greene’s sudden departure from Cincinnati’s rotation comes with a lack of certainty regarding the severity of the issue and whether he’ll require another surgical procedure. He’s scheduled to meet with renowned surgeon Dr. Neal El Attrache in Los Angeles later this week. The hard-throwing 26-year-old has struggled to an inflated 6.83 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 33/9 K/BB ratio across 27 2/3 innings since returning from surgery to remove bone chips and loose bodies from his pitching elbow back on July 4. There should be some much-needed clarity regarding his next steps in the coming days. At this point, it’s challenging for fantasy managers to justify stashing him, especially in shallow formats.

We’re inclined to believe that Nightengale has this one correct. However, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the Reds are still listening to offers and there’s a “50-50" chance that Greene is moved. It seemed a little far-fetched that the Reds were going to move on from Greene with multiple years left on his contract after reports surfaced earlier this week. Anything is possible and the emergence of Chase Burns as a certifiable front-of-the-rotation arm has probably made their decision easier.

Greene punched out four batters in the contest while issuing a pair of walks. The Pirates got to him for two runs in the opening inning, then Greene allowed a solo homer to Jake Mangum in the second and a sacrifice fly in the fifth inning. He generated 13 swings and misses on 91 pitches in the contest, posting a CSW of 27 percent. He’ll attempt to get back in the win column as he brings a 6.83 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and a 33/9 K/BB ratio (27 2/3 innings) into Thursday’s battle against the Athletics.

Greene is under contract for $15 million next season, $16 million in 2028, with a $21 million club option for 2029, so he is the type of controllable starting pitcher that teams would give up a haul for. He also has pitched poorly since coming back from elbow surgery and has some elevated injury risk due to his high velocity. He’s an absolute bargain at his current contract if he remains healthy, but perhaps the Reds are no longer willing to roll the dice on him staying on the mound.

This was discouraging. Greene averaged just 97.2 mph with his fastball tonight. He was at 98.9 and 99.1 mph in his first two starts before slipping to 98.1 mph last week against the Rockies and losing another one mph tonight. This was the lowest he’s been since his final start of 2024. Last year, he never fell below 98.8 mph in his 19 starts. Greene ended up allowing eight hits and 11 hard-hit balls. He struck out just three. Maybe we’ll get some explanation for the diminished velocity, but there’s good reason for concern. He’s due to face the Pirates on Thursday.

Greene gets his second win of the season in his third start of the season. It paled in comparison to the dominance he showed just prior to the All-Star break when he whiffed 12, but it was a solid-enough effort that saw Greene strike out seven. The only real issue was keeping the ball in the park, as he gave up two homers to Hunter Goodman, who ended up hitting three in the losing effort. Greene looks solid so far, and he’ll be back on the bump again next weekend against the Cardinals in St. Louis.

Greene couldn’t have asked for a much better outing in this one. After a disastrous first start of the season his last time out, the hard-throwing righty held the Cubs in check all night, allowing just three hits over seven scoreless frames. Greene was lights out for the Reds on Friday, needing just 93 pitches to get through this outing while limiting himself to just one walk. He’ll get some time off with the All-Star Break just around the corner, but hopefully this start signals a strong second-half of the season for him.

Greene’s velocity started out well tonight, but his 51 fastballs tonight produced one whiff on 21 swings and four hits, including a Samuel Basallo homer. It didn’t help that he went from averaging 100 mph in the first to 99 in the second and 98 in the third and fourth. At least he did get 14 whiffs with the slider and seven strikeouts overall. Greene will build endurance, but in his case, fastball shape has always been key to his success. Obviously, it’s not time to rush to judgment here when he’s really just four outings into his rehab. He’ll likely face the Cubs on Friday.