The Kings may have suffered a major blow on Wednesday night when Marvin Bagley suffered a left knee sprain in the second half against the Bucks. He ran into a screen from Malcolm Brogdon, needed help off the floor, and the Kings put his left leg in an immobilizer after the game. He is going to have an MRI on the same knee that kept him out for about a month in December and early January.
The worst part about all of this is Bagley had been on a roll in his previous three games since the All-Star break, averaging 24.3 points, 11.7 boards, 1.7 dimes, 1.7 blocks, 1.3 steals and 0.7 treys in 35.7 minutes per game. So if he’s out, what happens to the Kings rotation?
Harrison Barnes should be very busy as the starting power forward. He played 41 minutes on Wednesday night, playing 38 minutes as the power forward. In the three games since the break, Barnes had played 39 total minutes at the three. His numbers should also get a boost per minute, too. With Barnes and Willie Cauley-Stein on while Bagley is off, Barnes put up per-36 stats of 14.8 points, 8.2 boards, 1.6 dimes, 0.3 blocks, 0.7 steals and 2.0 treys as a King. Compare that to Barnes, WCS and Bagley on the floor for Barnes per 36: 7.7 points, 4.6 boards, 3.1 dimes, 1.5 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.5 treys.
Barnes still isn’t likely to be a dominating force in fantasy because the three perimeter players next to him should fill it up in the usage category. He still could score in the teens with a noteworthy boost in boards and possibly more defensive stats.
If Harry B is going to play almost straight four, that’s big news for Bogdan Bogdanovic, who just scored a career-high 28 points on Wednesday night. The Kings have rolled with a five-man lineup of Bogdan, De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Harry B and WCS for 65 minutes this year, and Bogdan has put up per-36 stats of 20.4 points, 7.7 boards, 4.4 dimes, 1.7 steals, 0.6 blocks and 2.2 treys. That lineup has also been great in that time with a +14.7 net rating with Bogdan hat a 19.0 usage rate and a tidy 63.0 eFG%. He played 43 minutes on Wednesday and should continue to see run in the mid-30s while Bagley is on the shelf.
The one mysterious part of all this is what happens with Harry Giles. On the year, he’s played 50 minutes next to another center, including 30 minutes with WCS with a 67.6 defensive rating at a 122.6 pace. However, WCS and Giles have zero minutes together in the seven games since Harry B joined forces with the Kings. Giles at the four was happening more often when Bagley was out in January, so maybe that combo is on the table. Bagley was seeing more run at the five, so that should give Giles a floor of minutes in the teens in most games. Giles is coming off a strong 18-point, seven-board game in 17 minutes on Wednesday, but he’s still more of a watch-list/stream guy until we see him get some PF minutes. Plus, the Kings don’t really face a big frontcourt for the foreseeable future.
Could Nemanja Bjelica get back in the mix? His value has plummeted since Harry B arrived and Marvin had been rolling, and he didn’t even get in the game in two of the previous three. He’s probably looking at just a backup role behind Barnes, so he’s not someone most fantasy owners should target.
Besides these guys, the rest of the Kings could get a boost with Bagley sitting at a second-ranked 23.3 usage rate since the break (Hield). Plus, the Kings have a league-best 4-4-4-4 in the final four full weeks of the season, so that could go a long way for those in the fantasy playoffs.
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The other big injury news last night was Hassan Whiteside being a late-ish scratch with a right hip strain. Hip issues have been a problem for Whiteside with a left hip pointer earlier this year, a hip/groin issue in October, a left hip flexor problem in March of 2018, and another left hip strain in January 2016. He did not even travel for the game in Houston tonight, and chances are he needs to miss additional time given his track record on recovering from injuries.
The main takeaway is easy: Bam Adebayo needs to be owned everywhere in fantasy. Last night in a win against the Dubs, Adebayo put up 11 points, 10 boards, four assists and two blocks in 32 minutes. In his seven starts at center, Bam averaged 12.0 points, 8.7 boards, 3.0 dimes, 1.4 blocks and 1.4 steals in 30.9 minutes per game. His ability to switch on perimeter players is why coach Erik Spoelstra likes him so much, and that could come in handy with games against the Rockets, Nets, Hawks, Hornets and Cavs on the horizon.
Kelly Olynyk should also be a huge winner from this, especially with the Heat getting healthier on the perimeter. He played 10 minutes at center last night and his numbers at center are attractive this year. Per 36, KO sits at 21.1 points, 9.3 boards, 3.3 dimes, 1.0 blocks, 0.9 steals and 2.2 treys over a 208-minute sample. He should be able to get around 10-16 minutes at center in most matchups to go with double-digit minutes as a four man.
With James Johnson (shoulder) still on the sidelines, that should open up minutes for the perimeter players in small-ball lineups, especially tonight. Derrick Jones Jr. should see additional minutes at the four, and he projects as a valuable piece in the matchup tonight. His length on the perimeter and rebounding could get him to 24-30 minutes today, especially if Goran Dragic and/or Justise Winslow are dialed back in the back-to-back set.
If Airplane Mode does play almost straight four, that could help the rest of the perimeter players see additional run. Dragic and Winslow returning really cut into Dion Waiters’ playing time and that could continue, so he and Rodney McGruder could be risky. Expect to see a ton of Josh Richardson on James Harden today, too.
The Nets have a clean injury report! Spencer Dinwiddie will play on Friday, so this rotation is going to be something to watch. Dinwiddie, D’Angelo Russell and Caris LeVert should be the safest perimeter players despite LeVert flopping on his bobblehead night on Wednesday. Joe Harris should also be fairly safe while Crabbe could see 20-25 minutes. After that, the non-center players could be too inconsistent to use in most fantasy leagues. Jarrett Allen should be fine, and he’s said that he likes running pick-and-roll plays more with Caris LeVert, too.
The 76ers are going to need some help at the five. Joel Embiid (knee) remains out and now Boban Marjanovic (knee) is going to miss at least 5-7 days. Jonah Bolden should take on the lion’s share of the playing time with Amir Johnson playing some, too. Plus, the 76ers would likely be going with more Ben Simmons at the five. That makes T.J. McConnell the most interesting player to target in fantasy until Embiid is back in action.
Domantas Sabonis (ankle) is going to miss a couple games. That will give Myles Turner a slightly longer leash while Kyle O’Quinn becomes a stream/punt play.
Jeff Teague (knee) is hurt again and it’s led to Tyus Jones getting two starts in a row, averaging 11.5 points, 9.5 dimes, 2.5 steals and 1.0 treys. He’s basically the PG version of Bam Adebayo and needs to be in all fantasy lineups as long as Teague is out. Robert Covington is also on G League assignment, so he should be back very soon. Besides making sure he’s owned, expect to see Josh Okogie take the biggest hit. Derrick Rose may play more at the point, which could bump Jerryd Bayless out of the rotation even if Teague is still out.
The Grizzlies need some help at power forward with Jaren Jackson Jr. not expected to play in the near future. Plus, Ivan Rabb also did not play on Wednesday with a heel issue. Jonas Valanciunas has been productive as the starting five and that should continue while Joakim Noah should be owned in most leagues, too. Bruno Caboclo saw 28 minutes as the starting four on Wednesday, so he is a possible punt/stream until Rabb is back.
Kenneth Faried (hip) suffered a hip injury last night and is doubtful today. That should mean the Rockets go back to their old rotation with P.J. Tucker as a straight four to open up more minutes for Eric Gordon at the three. Nene will also back up Clint Capela, who looked awesome in the second half on Wednesday.
DeAndre Jordan is still out with his ankle sprain from Saturday’s practice. If you didn’t read Matchups on Tuesday, you guys all know the analysis for this one… Mitchell Robinson time!
