“What’s the point of strength of schedule?” they said. “Don’t use it, it’s a waste of time.” They didn’t want to entertain drafting Leonard Fournette, the oft-injured rookie out of LSU who would be playing with Blake Bortles on a bad Jaguars team which hadn’t won more than five games since 2010 and would likely face negative game-script situations. In 2012-2016, only two Jaguars running backs produced seasons with more than three rushing TDs, and only three ran for over 500 yards. In 2016, T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory combined for just 904 yards and four TDs. Linemakers projected six wins for the Jags and a fourth-place finish. “Who cares about strength of schedule? I want nothing to do with a rookie in this terrible Jacksonville backfield.”
In this space last year, my non-traditional method of calculating strength of schedule forecast the Jaguars with the NFL’s easiest slate. What does an easy schedule mean? Ideally, better game scripts. And more opportunities to run the ball because instead of trailing by double digits in the second half like the pre-2017 Jaguars were accustomed to, they would have more fourth-quarter leads to hold onto via the run game.
50% of Fournette’s rushes gained two yards or fewer, which ranked 25th out of 28 NFL backs with at least 175 attempts. Only 26% of his runs gained five yards or more (27th). Fournette averaged just 3.88 yards per carry, and his 43% success rate ranked 17th of 28 qualifiers. But thanks to improved game script, Fournette ranked 7th in rushing attempts (268) and finished as the fantasy RB8. This is just one anecdote to show why schedule strength matters.
The current method used to analyze schedule strength is the least efficient possible, looking at only prior-year win-loss records without context and applying them to current-year opponents. Measuring 2018 strength of schedule based on 2017 records is lazy and inaccurate. But like most things in the NFL, it is an accepted method from the past, and there is reluctance to shift away from established thought processes. I’ve built my foundation on questioning tradition and employing more efficient means of making NFL decisions.
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At SharpFootballAnalysis.com, I attack the NFL from an analytical perspective and often use contrarian thinking to find edges. I also developed a free-to-use stats website (SharpFootballStats.com) which uses advanced analytics and visual graphs to allow users to customize, visualize, process, and retain information.
This article will focus on 2018 SOS using 2018 Vegas projected win totals. My method starts by taking three of the largest, most reputable Vegas sportsbooks (Westgate, South Point, CG Technology) to build a model creating a consensus line which factors in juice. Ignoring juice is a massive mistake. For example, ignoring juice on a team with a win total set at 7.0 but juice on the over of -150 would be misleading. My juice-adjusted win totals are a superior means of calculating opponent strength.
The other edge in calculating SOS in this manner is that I can update the data over the course of spring and summer. As bigger-money bets are made, linemakers adjusted the juice and sometimes the win totals themselves. Sportsbooks and sharp bettors tell us how their opinion of each team is evolving.
32. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona’s 2018 home-road splits will be fascinating. They play just one top-ten opponent at home (Rams) and a league-high five top-ten opponents on the road. The back half of Arizona’s schedule features four top-ten opponents in a five-week span. The Cardinals are the only team to not face a single bottom-five opponent this year. On a more specific note, Arizona plays a brutal schedule of pass-rush defenses to start the season. With Sam Bradford’s fragility behind an undermanned offensive line, Josh Rosen figures to start sooner rather than later.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are one of the few teams that might be thankful for an early bye. They play the NFL’s most difficult schedule in September, including three top-ten teams (Saints, Eagles, Steelers) in consecutive weeks. Tampa Bay draws a reasonable midseason slate before closing its final six games without a single below-average opponent. More specifically, the Bucs face one of the league’s most difficult schedules of pass defenses. So if they struggle on the scoreboard against this brutal schedule, the Bucs won’t necessarily be able to rally back in these games via the pass.
30. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle moves from 2017’s second-softest projected schedule to 2018’s third toughest. The Seahawks’ SOS is highlighted by a ridiculously tough final nine games featuring two top-five opponents, two top-ten teams, and four more games against teams ranked 11th-16th. Seattle’s schedule does begin favorably with two bottom-five opponents (Bears, Cardinals) in the first month. But three of the Seahawks’ first four games are on the road, and they have a slightly early bye (Week 7), limiting their rest and recovery ahead of the grueling Weeks 9-16 stretch.
29. New York Giants
New GM Dave Gettleman pushed in his chips on Eli Manning this year. Some have suggested Eli must start hot for that strategy to pay off, but it will be easier said than done. No team plays a tougher Weeks 1-7 schedule than the Giants, who face four top-ten teams in their first seven games (Eagles, Saints, Falcons, Jaguars) as well as the Panthers and Texans. Collectively, the G-Men draw the second-most-difficult schedule of pass defenses in the league. The second half of the season is considerably easier, including five bottom-ten opponents in Weeks 8-16.
28. Kansas City Chiefs
Pat Mahomes won’t be eased into the 2018 season against the difficult pass defenses of the Chargers and Steelers – both on the road – in Weeks 1-2. After that, Kansas City’s toughest two-week test comes in Weeks 5-6 against the Jaguars and Patriots. Overall, the Chiefs face the NFL’s fewest bottom-ten opponents (two) and a league-high six top-ten opponents. Their defense should face an above-average schedule, but the defenses Kansas City’s offense faces are especially difficult, collectively ranking second toughest in the league.
27. New Orleans Saints
Presuming they take care of business in early games they’re favored to win, the Saints should be in good position entering their Week 6 bye. They face four bottom-ten teams in the first five weeks. From Week 8 onward, however, New Orleans draws four top-ten teams in a five-week span (Vikings, Rams, Eagles, Falcons) and overall has the NFL’s most difficult schedule in the season’s second half. The offenses they draw during this stretch are cumulatively the toughest any defense will face, and Drew Brees will have his work cut out against a very tough slate of defenses, as well. The Saints play three primetime games in four weeks between Weeks 12-15, and two are on the road. (New Orleans is 0-3 in on-the-road primetime games since 2016.)
26. Detroit Lions
Detroit’s lone saving grace from facing a downright brutal schedule is the AFC East, giving the Lions games against the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills. Because apart from a game against the lowly Cardinals in Week 14, there is nothing remotely easy about this slate. No team in the NFL plays more top-ten (6) or top-five (4) opponents than Detroit. And if they are lucky enough to be fighting for playoff position, they must overcome late-December trips to Buffalo and Green Bay, no easy task for a dome team. From Weeks 8-16, Detroit faces a nasty gauntlet of defenses – toughest in the NFL – highlighted by the league’s toughest slate of pass defenses in that span.
25. Cleveland Browns
Last year’s Browns went winless against an average schedule, but you’d be wrong to think that they can’t have success against the NFL’s eighth-toughest 2018 slate. And that’s because the roster suddenly has plenty of talent. But the reason Cleveland’s schedule is so tough is that they don’t play any easy teams except for the Jets at home in Week 3. The Browns’ next-weakest opponent is the Bucs in Week 7, although that game is on the road. And beyond that, no other team on the Browns’ schedule is worse than in-state rival Cincinnati. The good news is Cleveland gets four of its toughest non-division opponents at home (Falcons, Chargers, Chiefs, Panthers). Gregg Williams’ defense had better ramp up quickly, because through the first ten weeks, the Browns play by far the NFL’s most difficult schedule of opposing offenses. While the Browns are again pegged as the league’s worst team, I can picture them pulling off more upsets than expected with a revamped talent base.
24. Washington Redskins
Seeming to face difficult schedules annually, the Skins again draw a tough 2018 road including a league-high six top-ten opponents. Washington does face the bottom-five Cardinals and Colts to start off, but has the NFL’s earliest bye (Week 4) and plays eight opponents ranked in the top 14 in their ensuing ten games. From Weeks 3-17, the Skins face the toughest schedule in the NFL. And all three of their primetime games are on the road.
23. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have the NFL’s fifth-highest win total, but unlike the Patriots, Steelers, Eagles, and Vikings, Los Angeles must get it done against a difficult slate. The good news is the Rams draw their three toughest opponents (Philly, Minnesota, Green Bay) at home. Probably the most dangerous spot for the Rams will be a Week 7 road game at San Francisco – their third road game in a row – followed by the Packers at home, then back on the road to face the Saints. While this schedule is tough, it should at very least battle test the Rams enough to adjust before meeting these familiar NFC opponents in the postseason.
22. Philadelphia Eagles
All of the highly-rated NFC teams for 2018 were really good last year. Many of them won their divisions, setting up stellar battles thanks to the way the schedule is made. The Eagles draw the Falcons, Vikings, Saints, and Rams, leaving only the Packers as a top NFC foe off Philadelphia’s schedule. The Eagles do play the seventh-easiest slate in September before embarking on the fifth-toughest schedule the rest of the way. The Eagles’ only non-top-half opponents from October onward are the in-division Redskins and Giants. It is notable that from Weeks 8-17, the Eagles face the easiest schedule of opposing run defenses.
21. Minnesota Vikings
Chalk it up to playing in the NFC – a far superior conference to the AFC – but yet again we have a very good NFC team with a tough slate. But, frankly, I’d rather play the Rams or Eagles’ schedule than the Vikings. And that is because they must face so many of their toughest opponents on the road, such as Philadelphia, the L.A. Rams, Green Bay, and New England. The Vikings’ at-home schedule is quite favorable, however, specifically games against the Dolphins, Cardinals, and Bills.
20. Denver Broncos
The Broncos face a sneaky-tough schedule with a fair share of layups (Jets, Cardinals, Browns) but a ton of mid-tier opponents that are expected to have success against Denver based on the Broncos’ own win-total projections. Denver is only favored at home once by the standard three-point home-field advantage (vs. Browns), and on the road the Broncos are underdogs by over three points in five of their eight lined games. Denver does draw the NFL’s seventh-easiest schedule of opposing pass defenses, which is good news for new quarterback Case Keenum.
19. Dallas Cowboys
Expect the Cowboys to ride Ezekiel Elliott as hard as possible; not only are Dez Bryant and Jason Witten gone, but the Cowboys face the NFL’s fifth-toughest schedule of pass defenses. In Weeks 1-14, Dallas faces the league’s fourth-toughest overall slate. It’s a schedule that features just one bottom-ten opponent and zero bottom-five foes. Making matters worse is that the Cowboys’ defense faces the fourth-toughest slate of pass offenses. The teams they face struggled to run the ball last year, however, which could keep Dallas in games if their opponents have leads but fail to run out the clock.
18. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers won’t like the front or back ends of their schedule, but from Weeks 3-14 they play the NFL’s third-softest slate. Carolina’s Week 4 bye comes a bit early but may be useful for a team learning a new offensive scheme under Norv Turner. The Panthers project to face the NFL’s third-toughest schedule in the final three weeks (Falcons, Saints twice), but at least two of them are at home in Carolina. The Panthers paired C.J. Anderson with Christian McCaffrey and face the NFL’s third-easiest schedule of run defenses this year.
17. Chicago Bears
Like the Panthers, the Bears’ offense might be able to capitalize on its early (Week 5) bye. Chicago has the NFL’s second-softest schedule through Week 10. They play five bottom-five teams during that span, although they are favored in just three of those games because the Bears are also viewed as a bottom-five team. Note that Chicago plays the NFL’s fourth-softest schedule of opposing defenses, including the fifth-easiest schedule of pass defenses after heavily upgrading their passing game in the offseason.
16. Atlanta Falcons
Of all the top NFC teams we expect to vie for home-field advantage, only the Packers have an easier road than the Falcons. Following a revenge game against the Super Bowl champion Eagles in Week 1, Atlanta plays five of its next six games at home, then enters a bye. Between Weeks 3-9, the Falcons face the NFL’s second-easiest run-defense schedule. And given their likely game script in these meetings – and how so many are at home – look for the Falcons’ running backs to start the season faster than expected.
15. Buffalo Bills
The Bills face the NFL’s toughest schedule in Weeks 1-6, including road games at the Vikings, Packers, Texans, and Ravens. Buffalo also faces the NFL’s second-toughest schedule of run defenses, which will put more onto A.J. McCarron or Josh Allen’s plate. The only reason the Bills’ schedule isn’t rated tougher in these rankings is because they play the Jets and Dolphins twice apiece. But make no mistake, this is a difficult slate that starts off especially tough.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is the only team in football to play just one top-five opponent all year based on win totals. And thanks to a couple of games against the Browns (5.5-game win total), the Steelers’ schedule isn’t overly imposing. Pittsburgh has the good fortune of hosting the Falcons, Chiefs, and Ravens at Heinz Field before a Week 7 bye. But from Weeks 9-17, the Steelers draw the NFL’s fourth-toughest slate featuring strong AFC teams in the Jaguars, Chargers, and Patriots, and then the Saints in New Orleans. From Week 11 onward, the Steelers do face the league’s fourth-easiest schedule of run defenses.
13. Cincinnati Bengals
Unlike the Steelers – who face the Browns twice early in the season – Cincinnati doesn’t face Cleveland until late in the year. And unlike the Steelers facing tough non-division teams like the Falcons and Chiefs early in the year at home, the Bengals must face them early in the year on the road. Throw in a trip to the Panthers and the only thing preventing the Bengals from having a tougher first seven weeks than Pittsburgh are games against the bottom-five Colts and Dolphins. Cincinnati does face the NFL’s eighth-easiest schedule of pass defenses this year.
12. Baltimore Ravens
While the Ravens face an easy slate in the first half of the season, their opponents are seventh best against the run in that span. But the Ravens’ rushing offense could kick into high gear after their bye. They have the league’s easiest schedule of run defenses in the final six weeks.
11. Indianapolis Colts
Although Indy plays in an improving AFC South and draws the Eagles and Patriots in the first five weeks, the Colts nearly have one of the league’s ten softest schedules. Indianapolis does face both Super Bowl 52 participants on the road, games in which Frank Reich’s team will likely be a double-digit underdog. Yet this gives the Colts more home games against easier competition, which is what you want if you’re pulling for a higher win-total ceiling. The Colts also face the NFL’s fifth-softest schedule of defenses, including the league’s easiest slate of run defenses (and rush defense correlates better year to year than pass defense). Indy’s season still hinges on Andrew Luck’s health. Sportsbooks currently appear to be operating as if Luck won’t play; the Colts are favored in only three games with a weak 6.0-game win total. The Colts played the NFL’s third-toughest pass-defense schedule last year and still led entering the fourth quarter in 9-of-16 games. Terrible, predictable coaching caused them to win just four of those games.
10. San Francisco 49ers
It was a great time for Jimmy Garoppolo to arrive in San Francisco. The Cardinals are in rebuild mode. The Seahawks aren’t close to the team they were two years ago. The 49ers’ 2018 schedule is extremely segmented, however. They open as underdogs in five of their first seven games, facing the NFL’s third-toughest schedule with four games against top-ten teams in that stretch. But from Week 8 onward, the 49ers have the NFL’s second-softest slate and face the league’s fourth-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. This translates to positive game-script city with the Niners set up to get a ton of production from their Jerick McKinnon-infused run game.
9. Miami Dolphins
All of the AFC teams’ schedules are softened merely by playing in the soft AFC East. For the Dolphins, it means four games against the Jets and Bills. A big plus for the Fins is that they face the NFL’s easiest schedule of pass defenses in Weeks 1-12. Miami no longer has target monster Jarvis Landry, of course, which means plenty of opportunity for DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, Albert Wilson, and perhaps rookie TE Mike Gesicki. The Dolphins also face a difficult run-defense slate during that stretch, enhancing their need to rely on the Landry-less passing game.
8. Green Bay Packers
Depending on which way you read this article – top down or skipping ahead to see who faces the easiest slate – this will either be the final or first NFC team you read about. Indeed, the NFL’s seven easiest schedules all belong to AFC clubs, illustrating the NFC’s vast superiority. Not only is the Packers’ schedule navigable, but it’s distributed nicely. In the first six weeks, Green Bay draws just one top-ten team (Vikings) and it’s at Lambeau. The Packers have a Week 7 bye before facing the Rams. The do draw New England the following week, but it’s a Sunday night game, giving the Packers a little extra rest. From Week 9 onward, Green Bay’s slate is the second softest in football with four bottom-ten opponents, including three bottom-five clubs.
7. Tennessee Titans
The Titans’ schedule is harder than its average makes it appear; they simply benefit from facing four bottom-ten opponents. Tennessee’s slate does set up relatively nicely pre-bye; they draw difficult foes Philadelphia, Houston, and Baltimore at home with a road game at the Chargers, where home-field edge is minimal. If the Titans can navigate those four games, they’ll be in prime position to rev up entering the playoffs with the NFL’s softest schedule from Weeks 11-17, including four bottom-ten opponents in a seven-week span. One note is that entering their bye, the Titans face a gauntlet of top pass defenses (Jags, Ravens, Eagles, Chargers, Bills) in five consecutive weeks. Post-bye, the strength of opposing pass defenses dips markedly, however. Tennessee’s passing game is set up to start slowly and finish fast.
6. New York Jets
Unlike Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, or Josh Rosen, if Sam Darnold wins the Jets’ starting job in training camp, he will face a soft slate to begin the year. The Jets have the NFL’s easiest schedule in Weeks 1-6, including the league’s tenth-softest slate of pass defenses. They play just one top-ten team (Jacksonville) and three bottom-five teams (Miami, Cleveland, Indy) during that stretch. And through Week 10, Gang Green still has the easiest schedule in the league, and no team plays more bottom-ten opponents (six) or bottom-five clubs (four) than the Jets. It’s not until after the Jets’ Week 11 bye that they face a difficult run (three top-ten teams). Ultimately, the Jets may be better off starting Darnold early than waiting for the bye.
5. Oakland Raiders
After a tough opener against the Rams, the Raiders’ schedule turns progressively easier in September with games against the Broncos, Dolphins, and Browns. But from Week 9 onward, Oakland draws the NFL’s fifth-toughest schedule of defenses. After a decade away from the sidelines, it will be fascinating to watch Jon Gruden’s club handle those opponents.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars drew the NFL’s softest 2017 slate and it paid off for Leonard Fournette. This year, the Jags’ schedule divides at their Week 9 bye. Before the open date, the Jaguars face the league’s 12th-hardest schedule featuring both Super Bowl 52 participants. After the bye, the Jaguars face the league’s second-softest slate with four bottom-ten foes and just one top-ten team. Jacksonville’s offense is projected to face the easiest 2018 schedule, so Fournette should be in store for another volume-heavy campaign.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers benefit from being the NFL’s only team to play just two top-ten opponents: the Rams and Steelers. (Both are road games, however.) The Bolts do not have an overly easy schedule filled with tremendously bad teams – they face only four bottom-ten foes all year – but the schedule is stocked with winnable games. Given the Chargers’ lack of a real home-field advantage, this note may be overrated, but the Bolts play four tough opponents at home in the first seven weeks (Chiefs, 49ers, Titans, Raiders). The back half of L.A.’s slate features more difficult road games and good run defenses. It will be critical for the Chargers to avoid the predictable and highly inefficient first-down runs they were so confusingly committed to in 2017.
2. New England Patriots
Any schedule is going to be easy when you face the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins for six of your 16 games. The Patriots’ toughest tests come at the beginning and end of their season, facing the Jaguars and Steelers in Weeks 2 and 15, respectively, and both games are on the road. No team plays more bottom-ten opponents (8) than New England. The Pats get the rest of their tough draws at home (Packers, Vikings, Texans, Chiefs). But New England is currently favored by 4.5 points or more in all four of those contests.
1. Houston Texans
The AFC South is not remotely the pushover it once was, and the division will get even harder if Andrew Luck returns. But fortunately for the Texans, their toughest opponents are broken up nicely over the course of their schedule. Houston faces New England in Week 1, hosts the Bills before facing the Jaguars, and draws the Jets before the Eagles. Overall, it’s the softest schedule in the league, and massively so from Weeks 3-15 with winnable-to-cupcake dates against the Giants, Colts (twice), Cowboys, Bills, Dolphins, Broncos, Redskins, Browns, and Jets. In a higher-scoring offense quarterbacked by Deshaun Watson, figuring out which Texans running back will lead the team in touches could be an underrated edge in 2018 fantasy football.
