As we head into the weekend, be sure to check out all the content rolling onto the Rotoworld Daily page. Here’s a list of articles looking at the NFL DFS Week 16 slate. I will be updating as new columns are added, so consider this section as the DFS Table of Contents.
NFL DFS Bargains by Renee Miller
NFL GPP Plays by Spencer Limbach
WR/TE Grind Down by David Kaplen
QB/RB Grind Down by Stevie Young
DFS Tiers by Hayden Winks
DRAFT NFL Strategy by Spencer Limbach
NFL DFS Fades by Renee Miller (coming soon)
RotoGrinders Primer by Stephen Keech (coming soon)
Rotoworld Ranks vs DFS Pricing by Rich Hribar (coming soon)
Now onto the NFL DFS Must Plays for Week 16!
Just a reminder, this column includes only Sunday afternoon games, as that’s considered the main slate on DFS sites. Games on Monday, Saturday, and Sunday night do not factor into this analysis.
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PLATINUM: Build your lineup around these guys
Ezekiel Elliott – RB – Dallas (vs Tampa Bay)
Running back is loaded with capable players in great situations this week, so there’s plenty of opportunity cost at the position. With that in mind, I’m still looking towards Ezekiel Elliott as my top “de facto” cash option. Here’s why: 1) This game has “Zeke” written all over it. Dallas checks in as 7.5 point home favorites with plenty of motivation to further their playoff cause. 2) The Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, also ranking 31st in DVOA against the run in general. 3) Elliott has seen more volume in the passing game with five or more receptions in six straight games … Add it all together, and I’m fully expecting a minimum of 25 fantasy points on Sunday.
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GOLD: Next wave to consider in terms of priority
Ben Roethlisberger – QB – Pittsburgh (at New Orleans)
The Steelers are anticipating another shootout with this 53 point over/under on Sunday. While Pittsburgh’s matchup against New England last week didn’t live up to the fantasy hype, there’s a good chance we’ll see a back-and-forth affair in the Superdome. New Orleans has been better on defense over the second half of the season, but they have still allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Furthermore, the Saints ability to stuff the run should funnel more attempts to Roethlisberger’s arm. Vital screening tools like expected volume, matchup potential, and game flow are all on Big Ben’s side this week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster – WR – Pittsburgh (at New Orleans)
Smith-Schuster sustained a groin injury in Thursday’s practice. He was able to get in a limited session on Friday, but you’ll want to monitor any indications of his health moving into Sunday. If JuJu is a full-go, he’s in an excellent position to thrive as Pittsburgh’s top pass catcher. There’s a good chance Antonio Brown will be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore, which could lead to more attempts coming JuJu’s way. The Saints have been pretty good against slot receivers this season, but Smith-Schuster should retain heavy usage in an elite game environment to put forth satisfying fantasy numbers. He’s my preferred stacking extension of Roethlisberger.
SILVER: Good options that narrowly rank ahead of similar players
Amari Cooper – WR – Dallas (vs Tampa Bay)
Cooper disappointed last week, but this is not the time to lose faith. Facing Tampa Bay is an excellent bounce-back situation, as the Bucs have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers this season. I believe you can utilize both Elliott and Cooper in the same lineup, as there should be enough production for both to reach value. That especially holds true on FanDuel where Cooper retains a mid-range salary of only $7000.
Nick Chubb – RB – Cleveland (vs Cincinnati)
Chubb has been a fantasy beast since taking the starting gig in Cleveland. That should continue against a Cincinnati team that has yielded the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Chubb ended up with 26 fantasy points on 31 touches when these teams last met in late November, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he matched that production on Sunday. Go ahead and view Chubb as a solid all-around play through all formats.
BRONZE: Not 100% necessities, but they mix well into a quality lineup
Alshon Jeffrey – WR – Philadelphia (vs Houston)
Jeffrey was limited in practice this week due to an illness, but he ended up getting a full session in on Friday. All signs point to him being ready for his usual workload on Sunday. That’s good news for fantasy backers, as Jeffrey’s upside has been restored with 17 targets, 14 receptions, 210 yards, one touchdown, and 34 total fantasy points over the past two weeks. Having Nick Foles at quarterback is actually good news for Alshon, as anyone watching the playoffs last year would agree. Expect the Philly QB to keep looking Jeffrey’s way on the deep perimeter routes.
Jamaal Williams – RB – Green Bay (at New York Jets)
Williams is an easy FLEX bargain while stepping into a starting role for Green Bay. Aaron Jones has been placed on injured reserve, so Williams is ready to assume a full workload moving forward. He ended up with 97 total yards on 16 touches (17.7 FP) despite a tough matchup at Chicago last week. That certainly adds confidence to his fantasy profile while considering the easier draw at the NY Jets on Sunday afternoon.
Evan Engram – TE – New York Giants (at Indianapolis)
Odell Beckham Jr has been ruled out for the second straight week, meaning Evan Engram will step up as one of the top pass catchers for New York. There’s a chance he’ll see plenty of targets too, as NYG could fall into pass-heavy mode as 9.5 road underdogs. Engram’s opponent, Indianapolis, ranks 23rd in DVOA against tight ends.
PARTICIPATION RIBBONS: Fell just short of a featured spot
Todd Gurley – RB – LA Rams
Drew Brees – QB – New Orleans
Davante Adams – WR – Green Bay
Marlon Mack – RB – Indianapolis
Austin Hooper – TE – Atlanta
Sterling Shepard – WR – NY Giants
Dallas Cowboys – DEF (cheap on FanDuel)
