This weekly article gets us ready for NFL DFS by considering some of the safest stacks, contrarian stacks, and a mini-stack or two. The premise is based on research showing the degree of correlation between one player’s fantasy output and another in his game. Among the strongest correlations are QB-QB(opponent), QB-WR1, QB-WR2, QB-WR1(opponent), QB-TE, and RB-D/ST. These are for the four-game slate on Saturday-Sunday.
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Safe Stack:
Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Travis Kelce, Devin Singletary
This will be the game of the weekend and I have two ideas for how to play it. There is no safer QB than Allen this week. Not only are the Bills in domination mode, peaking at exactly the right time, they are doing it with a balanced offence. That means Allen is putting up great passing numbers, the high-volume run game is working with Singletary, and Allen can get it done with his legs when necessary or optimal. When everything works, everything is open and Allen is seeing it all really well in his last few games, a trend that should continue against a Chiefs defense that allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. Diggs is coming off a disappointing game, but is the most reliable option in this pass offense. He finished the season as half-PPR WR7, and was fifth in WR targets. Frankly, the Bills need him to make plays this weekend. I don’t know if Singletary simply wasn’t ready for the kind of usage he’s enjoyed over the last six weeks before, but he sure is now. His accomplishments in the run game have been key for Buffalo getting to where they are. He’s putting up Derrick Henry numbers for half the price. I don’t think there’s a safer player than Kelce this week, and he solves the always tough TE dilemma. Buffalo is a tough matchup everywhere you look, and they’ll surely be fixated on disrupting the Mahomes—Kelce connection, but that’s something that few have succeeded in actually doing. The Bills did hold him to six catches on 10 targets for 57 receiving yards and a score in Week 5, but that kind of line is likely to be as good as it gets at TE this week.
Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, AJ Brown, Derrick Henry (or D’Onta Foreman)
Is going all in on the Bengals again a safe idea? From a talent and matchup perspective, it appears to be, but I’d be lying if I didn’t say that a small part of me worries that Burrow and Co. have peaked too soon. I hope that’s not the case, because the salaries of this stack are pretty nice in terms of building a balanced lineup for cash games or tournaments in the Divisional Round. Burrow had two outstanding games to end his regular season (a week early), but came back efficient and mistake-free in the Wild Card win over Las Vegas. He hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 14, and the Titans have a pretty lenient pass defense (allowing the 10th most-fantasy points to opposing QBs, second-most to WR). Chase finished the regular season as WR 5, with the fourth-most receiving yards among WRs despite many fewer targets than most of the Top 10. He didn’t score last week, but he was the clutch receiver that continued to make critical plays when his QB needed him. This relationship is rock solid and something to build lineups on this weekend.
I’m not counting the Titans out, though it really feels like forever since we saw them last. Vegas has them as 3.5-point favorites, a line that hasn’t budged. It felt like Brown had a disappointing season, as he was WR24 in half-PPR fantasy points per game with only five receiving touchdowns. However, he led the team by a mile in targets and production despite missing four games. Part of the reason Ryan Tannehill isn’t on my list is that this is a relatively low-volume pass offense usually. There’s some upside in this matchup as Cincy should be able to push the pace and the score up, but I’m choosing Brown to take advantage of any increased passing attempts. It only flashed a couple times, but he is a 30-plus fantasy point upside play. The big news is Derrick Henry’s impending activation. It won’t be official until Friday afternoon, but all signs are pointing to the star’s return this week. He is expensive, but unless we hear otherwise, I don’t believe he’d be active if he wasn’t ready to play his game this weekend. If the news remains positive on Henry, he’s the best RB on the slate and the Bengals allowed above average fantasy points to RBs during the regular season (Josh Jacobs averaged 6.4 YPC against them in the Wild Card game).
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Contrarian Stack:
Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Dawson Knox
The Chiefs might be a bit contrarian this week based on high salaries and tough matchups. Mahomes is fantastic, but he is also mistake-prone, losing a fumble and throwing two interceptions the first time these teams met in Week 5. The Chiefs turned the ball over more times (25) than any other playoff-bound team, including another interception and fumble lost to the Steelers. Still, Mahomes threw for five touchdowns in that game, a feat he managed twice in the regular season as well. The upside is sky high with him. The same is true of Hill, though we haven’t seen it in a while. He did catch all five of his Wild Card targets, one for a touchdown, but he’s been pretty quiet. His salary has come down a lot, giving him the chance to be one of, if not the, best fantasy-point-per-dollar plays this week. Buffalo doesn’t have a true defensive weakness, but they are less brutal against the run than the pass. A cheap and sure-to-be low-owned CEH should get a couple of goal line opportunities, even if McKinnon eats up a lot of work between the 20s. You’re hoping for a touchdown or two from him while higher owned guys like Joe Mixon fall flat. I think any roster not using Kelce at TE is a bit contrarian, but to complete the game stack, you might turn to Knox, who is coming off nearly the greatest fantasy effort of Wild Card weekend (excluding QBs). His 5/89/2 line even beat out Kelce by a narrow margin in half-PPR scoring. I highly doubt that he does it again, but he should be reasonably involved in the Bills’ game plan and can probably make an impact on good GPP lineups if he does half that well this weekend.
Mini-Stacks of the week:
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams:
There’s no duo I trust more, period. The chemistry is there, the health, the talent, the home field, the rest. The 49ers were an above average matchup for both QB and WR during the regular season, and should have a hard time keeping the ball out of Rodgers or Adams’ hands this time. It’s expensive, but it’s a rock solid way to start building for the Divisional Round.
Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp:
I can’t go without reiterating the bargain salary of Stafford and utter dominance of Kupp making a perfect bargain pair. The Rams will have their hands full, but I think they have a good chance of winning this game. Stafford will have to be almost perfect again, and Kupp will have to make more of an impact on the game than he did vs. Arizona, but they can do it. Especially if the defense can make some plays and give them good field position…it’s a risk/reward duo best in tournament lineups.
