The First Round of the NFL Draft was fairly light on the fantasy front, but we still had three quarterbacks, two wide receivers, two tight ends and a running back selected. You can check out the initial breakdowns and outlooks of those First Round selections here. Picking up where we left off from last night, here we will be doing the same for the fantasy picks selected on Friday, covering Rounds 2-3.
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Deebo Samuel No. 36 to San Francisco 49ers
Samuel never produced gaudy numbers at South Carolina – failing to post more than 908 total yards in any season – but was solid producer within the context of his passing game, accounting for 22.8 percent of the team receptions, 23.8 percent of the receiving yardage and 34.3 percent of the receiving touchdowns. Another bigger, versatile receiver in this class, Samuel has experience inside and out as 49 percent of his targets in 2018 came from the slot. Samuel joins a 49ers’ wide receiving unit that was led by Kendrick Bourne’s 42 receptions and last season’s second-round pick, Dante Pettis’ five touchdowns through the air. Despite those lowly numbers, the 49ers are only missing 12.4 percent of their targets from a year ago, which ranks 25th in the league. Samuel’s draft capital and landing spot could yield immediate opportunity with the return of Jimmy Garoppolo - and does cement him as a first-round rookie pick in Dynasty formats- but Samuel is only a WR4-5 heading into 2019. What his arrival does do is cap the ceiling potential of Pettis, who came on strong to close 2018. Pettis was a WR2 or better in four of his final six games as a rookie, but did so on just 6.2 targets per game over that span.
Drew Lock No. 42 to Denver Broncos
Lock is your prototypical quarterback in the size and arm strength department but comes along with a checkered history of up and down passing performances. Our own Thor Nystrom did a deep dive on Lock’s passing output compared to strength of opponent and his 20.4 percent uncatchable throw rate on passes 20 yards or fewer was the lowest of the high-end quarterback group. Despite those knocks, Lock was able to improve his completion percentage and lower his interception rate throughout his collegiate career. He also comes with the most starting experience of the top projected quarterback group, starting 46 games at Missouri. Lock isn’t going to add much rushing equity and will be a volatile passer. Often mocked to Denver with the 10th pick overall, the Broncos landed Lock at 42 overall. While Lock’s second-round status doesn’t guarantee him year one playing time, Joe Flacco is 34-years old and hasn’t thrown for 7.0 yards per attempt in any of the past four seasons. Flacco also has no more guaranteed money left on his contract. If Denver falls into a hole, we could see Lock on the field sometime in 2019.
Irv Smith No. 50 to Minnesota Vikings
At age 20, Smith caught 44 passes for 710 yards while setting an Alabama tight end record with seven touchdown receptions. Smith is a bit undersized as a traditional tight end (6’2/242), which may hurt his overall ceiling as an NFL player. The positive for Smith, though is he doesn’t turn 21-years old until August, giving Dynasty owners a longer leash for Smith to not only retain value early in his career, but also expand that window beyond the traditional slow burn required at the position. Kyle Rudolph is entering the final season of his contract at age 29, giving Smith potential for opportunity as soon as 2020.
A.J. Brown No. 51 to Tennessee Titans
Brown was one of the most productive and versatile players in college over the past two seasons. Of course, he benefited by all of the missed time by D.K. Metcalf in 2018, but in 2017 with both players healthy, it was Brown who was the lead wideout in the offense, catching 75 passes for 1,252 yards and 11 touchdowns at age 20. To follow that up, Brown than caught another 85 passes for 1,320 yards and six touchdowns in 2018. At 6’0 and 226 pounds, Brown can play inside and out within the offense and has a lot of experience playing in a big slot role. 59 percent of his routes came from the slot in 2018 in which he turned 59 receptions into 800 receiving yards and five touchdowns. The landing spot is not ideal as the Titans have just 28 vacated targets (6.6 percent of their team total) from 2018, the third-lowest rate in the league. They also have invested into pure slot man, Adam Humphries this offseason. Over Marcus Mariota’s first four NFL seasons, the Titans have ranked 31st (27.3 pass attempts per game in 2018), 28th (31.3 on 2017), 28th (31.5 in 2016) and 21st (34.4 in 2016). Brown’s selection along with Humphries’ signing provides major pause for expecting a third-year breakout for 2017 First Round pick Corey Davis, who accounted for 25.6 percent of the Tennessee targets in 2018 and was just the WR38 in points per game.
Miles Sanders No. 53 to Philadelphia Eagles
A former five-star recruit, Sanders was just unfortunate to be buried behind Saquon Barkley until 2018. With his first real opportunity, Sanders turned 244 touches (24 receptions) into 1,413 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns. He followed that up by helping himself at the combine with 4.49 40-yard dash, 10-foot-4 broad jump and 6.89 three-cone time at 211 pounds. Sanders joins one-dimensional runner Jordan Howard as new member of the Eagles backfield this season. While Howard doesn’t limit Sanders’ receiving ability. Howard is a threat to handle goal line opportunities. The Eagles are also a major proponent of a committee backfield. In three years under Doug Pederson, an individual back for the team has handled at least a third of the team touches just 13 times. While that sounds ominous for Sanders’ immediate potential, Howard also is a limited player with only one season on his contract. Sanders’ three-down ability could outright take control of this backfield as a range of outcomes, but an early season committee should be anticipated.
Mecole Hardman No. 56 to Kansas City Chiefs
Hardman has a lackluster production profile, tallying 60 receptions for 961 yards and 13 touchdowns over the past two seasons. In 2018, he accounted for 16.5 percent of the Georgia receiving yards, but caught 20.6 percent of their touchdowns. While he doesn’t have that elite raw production, Hardman does possess elite speed (4.33 40-yard dash) and was a strong return man in college, averaging 15.2 yards per punt return at Georgia (20.1 per return in 2018). With the Chiefs directly looking to a fill a void left by Tyreek Hill, Hardman can return punts while providing a vertical threat for Patrick Mahomes as a rookie.
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside No. 57 to Philadelphia Eagles
JJAW is another one of those wideouts in this class that checks many objective boxes in the size (6’2/225), athleticism (4.50 40-yard time at his Pro Day) and production (1,059 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2018). Arcega-Whiteside had 14 receiving touchdowns last season while his teammates combined for 15. A contested catch machine, Arcega-Whiteside led all wide receivers in contested catches over the past two seasons (40) while turning eight of his 16 receptions on throws 20-plus yards downfield into touchdowns. The Eagles have a log jam at wide receiver with Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and DeSean Jackson to pair along with target-hog Zach Ertz, but Jackson and Agholor have just one year left on their current contracts while Jackson has played a full season just twice in his 11-year career and Jeffery has played 16 games just once over the past four seasons. Arcega-Whiteside should be more of a 2020 option, but may have bouts of opportunity as a rookie if those two continue to miss some time.
Parris Campbell No. 59 to Indianapolis Colts
After two seasons of meandering production, Campbell took flight under Dwayne Haskins in 2018, catching 90 passes for 1,063 yards and 12 touchdowns. Campbell wasn’t your traditional receiver, however, excelling in a role that has churned production from high-end athletes prior in Percy Harvin and Curtis Samuel before him. Campbell was used as an offensive weapon like those two, averaging just 2.9 yards per depth of target with 88 percent of his receiving yardage from the slot. He also had just two career college receptions on throws over 20-yards downfield. Campbell is an immense athlete that added 210 career rushing yards at Ohio State while averaging 30.4 yards per kickoff return that has a size and speed profile to be more than what he was used as at Ohio State, but there is a bit of projection needed in that department. Campbell joins a soft receiving corps behind T.Y. Hilton, with Devin Funchess (one year deal), Chester Rogers, Zach Pascal and second-year wideouts Deon Cain and Daurice Fountain. Campbell takes a step of faith, but the depth chart isn’t formidable and the quarterback is among the league’s best for fantasy purposes.
Andy Isabella No. 62 to Arizona Cardinals
Isabella led the nation in receiving yards (1,698) and yards per route run (4.15) as a senior in 2018, capping his career with 231 receptions for 3,526 yards and 30 touchdowns. Isabella flashed a 4.31 at the Combine after finishing third in the nation in receiving yards gained on 20-plus-yard targets (704), but a few questions still linger around his size. At just 5’9 and 188 pounds, Isabella measured in with tiny arms (29 ¾”) and hands (8 3/8”), which are undersized even at his overall limiting stature. Playing in an open Arizona offense, Isabella fits well with second-year Christian Kirk and soon to be 36-year old Larry Fitzgerald to go along with the addition of Kyler Murray. Murray is the biggest winner here with more weaponry, but Isabella will potential to make an impact in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense as a vertical target while expanding his role once Fitzgerald paves a way for more volume in 2020.
D.K. Metcalf No. 64 to Seattle Seahawks
Metcalf has had two of his collegiate seasons cut short due to foot and neck injuries, which is why his production profile is so limited at the college level. Metcalf produced just 1,228 receiving over 21 career games at Ole Miss, but he did show off his efficiency, averaging 18.3 yards per reception and 10.3 yards per target while he was on the field. Over the past two seasons, 71 percent of Metcalf’s yards have come on just two routes (the go route or hitch). While that is a potential limitation for Metcalf’s versatility, as Josh Hermsmeyer has shown in the past, the curl is the most targeted route in the NFL and 90 percent of curl targets can be explained by the number of those routes run. As for Metcalf’s straight line speed that he demonstrated at the combine, Hermsmeyer also reinforced the hypothesis that the route in which a player most frequently reaches max speed is the go route. Metcalf carries injury red flags as well as concerns that he was out-produced by another wide receiver on his own team, but what he does, he does well enough to be a successful player for fantasy purposes if he’s able to stay healthy. Seattle is a good fit for his strengths as Russell Wilson has raised the tides of touchdown production for a breakout seasons from Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett. The downside, is that Seattle threw a league-low 26.7 times per game in 2018. Baldwin is already injured and is going on 31-years of age, so Metcalf can carve out an immediate role as volatile deep threat with potential for touchdown production paired with the abilities of Wilson.
