Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just “carries” to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. “High Value RB Touches & Game Script” will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches. [[ad:athena]]
Week 10 Situational RB Touches
One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from early-down touches (touches on 1st or 2nd down). In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations, plus dominate touches inside the 10-yard line. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.
| Player | Early Downs | Third Down | Inside 10 | Passing Situation Targets |
| ARI Kenyan Drake | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| ARI Chase Edmonds | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| BAL Gus Edwards | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| BAL Mark Ingram | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| BAL J.K. Dobbins | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| BAL Justice Hill | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| BAL Patrick Ricard | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BUF Zack Moss | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| BUF Devin Singletary | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| CAR Mike Davis | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| CAR Rodney Smith | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CAR Alex Armah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CIN Giovani Bernard | 13 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| CIN Samaje Perine | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CIN Trayveon Williams | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CHI Cordarrelle Patterson | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CHI Artavis Pierce | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CHI Ryan Nall | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CHI Lamar Miller | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CLE Kareem Hunt | 19 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| CLE Nick Chubb | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| DEN Melvin Gordon | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| DEN Phillip Lindsay | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DEN Royce Freeman | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| DET D’Andre Swift | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| DET Adrian Peterson | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DET Kerryon Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| GB Aaron Jones | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| GB Jamaal Williams | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| GB Tyler Ervin | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| HOU Duke Johnson | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| HOU C.J. Prosise | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| IND Nyheim Hines | 18 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| IND Jordan Wilkins | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| IND Jonathan Taylor | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| JAX James Robinson | 24 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| JAX Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| LA Cam Akers | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| LA Darrell Henderson | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| LA Malcolm Brown | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| LAC Kalen Ballage | 19 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| LAC Joshua Kelley | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| LAC Gabe Nabers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| LV Josh Jacobs | 23 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| LV Devontae Booker | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| MIA Salvon Ahmed | 20 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| MIA DeAndre Washington | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MIA Patrick Laird | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| MIN Dalvin Cook | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| MIN Alexander Mattison | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MIN C.J. Ham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NE Damien Harris | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| NE Rex Burkhead | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| NE Jakob Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NE James White | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| NO Alvin Kamara | 14 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| NO Latavius Murray | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYG Wayne Gallman | 16 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| NYG Alfred Morris | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYG Dion Lewis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| NYG Elijhaa Penny | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| PHI Miles Sanders | 19 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| PHI Boston Scott | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| PHI Corey Clement | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| PIT James Conner | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PIT Benny Snell | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| SEA Alex Collins | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| SEA DeeJay Dallas | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| SEA Travis Homer | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| SF Jerick McKinnon | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| SF JaMycal Hasty | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SF Austin Walter | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SF Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TB Ronald Jones | 24 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| TB Leonard Fournette | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| TEN Derrick Henry | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| TEN D’Onta Foreman | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| TEN Jeremy McNichols | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TEN Khari Blasingame | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| WAS J.D. McKissic | 17 | 6 | 1 | 11 |
| WAS Antonio Gibson | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| WAS Peyton Barber | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Week 10 Garbage Time Eaters
Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.
| Player | Garbage Rate | Garbage Touch | Total Touches |
| D’Onta Foreman | 75% | 6 | 8 |
| Isaiah Wright | 67% | 4 | 6 |
| Latavius Murray | 67% | 6 | 9 |
| Samaje Perine | 63% | 5 | 8 |
| Chase Claypool | 62% | 8 | 13 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 62% | 8 | 13 |
| James Conner | 53% | 8 | 15 |
| Corey Davis | 50% | 3 | 6 |
| Jalen Guyton | 50% | 3 | 6 |
| Taysom Hill | 50% | 4 | 8 |
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High Value RB Touches
As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I’ve combined them to create “High Value Touches”, which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by high value touches per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 high value touches per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. “High-Value %" is the percentage of opportunities that are high value touches. The higher, the better for all categories.
| Player | High Value | Inside 10 | Targets | Carries | Opps | High Value % | Last 4 Games |
| 1. Christian McCaffrey | 13.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 28.0 | 46% | 1 |
| 2. Alvin Kamara | 11.0 | 0.5 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 23.5 | 47% | 2 |
| 3. Leonard Fournette | 8.5 | 2.0 | 6.5 | 13.0 | 19.5 | 44% | 2 |
| 4. J.D. McKissic | 7.3 | 0.0 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 12.7 | 58% | 3 |
| 5. Joe Mixon | 7.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 18.0 | 21.0 | 33% | 1 |
| 6. Myles Gaskin | 7.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 18.0 | 23.0 | 30% | 2 |
| 7. Dalvin Cook | 6.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 26.0 | 28.5 | 23% | 2 |
| 8. David Montgomery | 6.5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 17.0 | 21.5 | 30% | 4 |
| 9. D’Andre Swift | 6.5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 10.5 | 15.0 | 43% | 4 |
| 10. DeeJay Dallas | 6.3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 53% | 3 |
| 11. Giovani Bernard | 6.3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 16.0 | 40% | 3 |
| 12. Jamaal Williams | 6.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 13.0 | 17.0 | 35% | 3 |
| 13. Boston Scott | 5.7 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 9.7 | 13.3 | 43% | 3 |
| 14. Aaron Jones | 5.5 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 12.5 | 17.5 | 31% | 2 |
| 15. Justin Jackson | 5.5 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 11.0 | 16.5 | 33% | 2 |
| 16. James Robinson | 5.3 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 19.7 | 23.7 | 23% | 3 |
| 17. Ezekiel Elliott | 5.3 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 15.3 | 19.5 | 27% | 4 |
| 18. Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 5.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 11.3 | 15.3 | 33% | 4 |
| 19. Kalen Ballage | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 15.0 | 18.0 | 28% | 1 |
| 20. Mike Davis | 4.8 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 9.8 | 13.8 | 35% | 4 |
| 21. Duke Johnson | 4.7 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 44% | 3 |
| 22. David Johnson | 4.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 11.7 | 14.0 | 33% | 3 |
| 23. Melvin Gordon | 4.7 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 10.3 | 14.3 | 33% | 3 |
| 24. Derrick Henry | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 20.3 | 22.3 | 20% | 4 |
| 25. Tyler Ervin | 4.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 56% | 2 |
| 26. Josh Jacobs | 4.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 18.3 | 20.3 | 21% | 3 |
| 27. Joshua Kelley | 4.3 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 9.3 | 13.0 | 33% | 3 |
| 28. Jonathan Taylor | 4.3 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 34% | 3 |
| 29. Ronald Jones | 4.3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 14.3 | 17.0 | 25% | 3 |
| 30. Chase Edmonds | 4.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 11.7 | 15.7 | 26% | 3 |
| 31. Carlos Hyde | 4.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 15.0 | 19.0 | 21% | 1 |
| 32. James Conner | 4.0 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 16.0 | 18.8 | 21% | 4 |
| 33. Jeff Wilson | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 17.0 | 19.0 | 21% | 1 |
| 34. Kenyan Drake | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 17.0 | 19.0 | 21% | 2 |
| 35. Kareem Hunt | 4.0 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 15.0 | 18.3 | 22% | 3 |
| 36. Todd Gurley | 4.0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 20.0 | 22.3 | 18% | 4 |
| 37. Antonio Gibson | 3.7 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 11.7 | 14.7 | 25% | 3 |
| 38. Gus Edwards | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 13.7 | 14.7 | 25% | 3 |
| 39. Wayne Gallman | 3.7 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 12.0 | 14.7 | 25% | 3 |
| 40. Jerick McKinnon | 3.5 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 40% | 4 |
| 41. Troymaine Pope | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 39% | 2 |
| 42. Darrell Henderson | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 12.3 | 13.7 | 24% | 3 |
| 43. Adrian Peterson | 3.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 28% | 4 |
| 44. Devin Singletary | 3.3 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 29% | 4 |
| 45. Chris Carson | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 43% | 1 |
| 46. J.K. Dobbins | 3.0 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 12.0 | 14.7 | 20% | 3 |
| 47. Lamical Perine | 3.0 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 26% | 3 |
| 48. Raheem Mostert | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 17.0 | 19.0 | 16% | 1 |
| 49. Zack Moss | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 27% | 4 |
| 50. Malcolm Brown | 2.7 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 7.3 | 9.7 | 28% | 3 |
| 51. Brian Hill | 2.5 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 25% | 4 |
| 52. Devonta Freeman | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 21% | 2 |
| 53. Latavius Murray | 2.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 22% | 2 |
| 54. Tony Pollard | 2.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 8.5 | 10.8 | 21% | 4 |
| 55. Corey Clement | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 40% | 2 |
| 56. JaMycal Hasty | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 21% | 4 |
| 57. Miles Sanders | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 18% | 1 |
| 58. Phillip Lindsay | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 15% | 4 |
| 59. Alexander Mattison | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 19% | 3 |
| 60. Benny Snell | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 42% | 3 |
| 61. Jordan Wilkins | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 14% | 3 |
| 62. Le’Veon Bell | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 25% | 3 |
| 63. Rex Burkhead | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 25% | 3 |
| 64. Matt Breida | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 25% | 2 |
| 65. Royce Freeman | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 21% | 2 |
| 66. Damien Harris | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 12% | 3 |
| 67. Frank Gore | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 11% | 3 |
| 68. Samaje Perine | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 29% | 3 |
| 69. Travis Homer | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 31% | 3 |
| 70. Cam Akers | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 10% | 1 |
| 71. Devontae Booker | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 16% | 3 |
| 72. Jordan Howard | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10% | 1 |
| 73. Ke’Shawn Vaughn | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 17% | 1 |
| 74. LeSean McCoy | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 20% | 1 |
| 75. Alfred Morris | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 6% | 2 |
| 76. Darwin Thompson | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 13% | 2 |
| 77. Peyton Barber | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7% | 2 |
| 78. AJ Dillon | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 6% | 3 |
| 79. D’Onta Foreman | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0% | 2 |
| 80. Dontrelle Hilliard | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0% | 1 |
| 81. Mark Ingram | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0% | 1 |
| 82. Salvon Ahmed | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0% | 1 |
Game-Script Touch Shares
Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.
| Player | Neutral | Trailing | Leading | Positive |
| MIN Dalvin Cook | 53% | 48% | 56% | |
| JAX James Robinson | 47% | 48% | NA | |
| CLE Kareem Hunt | 42% | 30% | 40% | |
| DAL Ezekiel Elliott | 40% | 21% | 37% | Positive |
| TEN Derrick Henry | 39% | 34% | 41% | |
| LV Josh Jacobs | 39% | 13% | 51% | Positive |
| NO Alvin Kamara | 34% | NA | 25% | |
| LA Darrell Henderson | 34% | 0% | 18% | Positive |
| ATL Todd Gurley | 34% | 6% | 39% | Positive |
| DET D’Andre Swift | 34% | 21% | 32% | |
| PHI Boston Scott | 33% | 7% | 23% | Positive |
| ARI Chase Edmonds | 32% | 16% | 33% | Positive |
| HOU Duke Johnson | 32% | 8% | 39% | Positive |
| NE Damien Harris | 31% | 22% | 31% | |
| WAS Antonio Gibson | 31% | 19% | 36% | Positive |
| NYJ Frank Gore | 30% | 16% | 32% | Positive |
| PIT James Conner | 28% | 18% | 32% | |
| CIN Giovani Bernard | 27% | 26% | 28% | |
| NYG Wayne Gallman | 26% | NA | 29% | |
| TB Ronald Jones | 25% | 21% | 27% | |
| CAR Mike Davis | 25% | 20% | 27% | |
| BUF Devin Singletary | 24% | 22% | 12% | |
| TB Leonard Fournette | 24% | 21% | 23% | |
| SF Jerick McKinnon | 23% | 20% | 13% | |
| KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 23% | NA | 17% | |
| BAL Gus Edwards | 23% | 12% | 21% | |
| CHI Cordarrelle Patterson | 22% | 6% | NA | |
| NYJ Lamical Perine | 22% | 22% | 26% | |
| DEN Melvin Gordon | 21% | 22% | 12% | |
| BAL Lamar Jackson | 21% | 14% | 29% | Positive |
| IND Jordan Wilkins | 20% | 13% | 35% | Positive |
| DET Adrian Peterson | 19% | 13% | 16% | |
| IND Jonathan Taylor | 19% | 15% | 13% | |
| NE Rex Burkhead | 18% | 19% | 16% | |
| BAL J.K. Dobbins | 17% | 17% | 29% | |
| SF JaMycal Hasty | 16% | 8% | 21% | |
| NO Latavius Murray | 16% | NA | 19% | |
| WAS J.D. McKissic | 16% | 35% | 11% | |
| BUF Josh Allen | 15% | 7% | 15% | |
| LAC Joshua Kelley | 15% | 15% | 18% |
The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 11
Part 1: High Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)
Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)
Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)
Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)
My Twitter: @HaydenWinks