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Welcome to the Friday Walkthrough. Every week I’ll be outlining critical fantasy football context for the upcoming slate of games.
At the end of the article, I’ve included an extensive list of the stats used as well as what they are, why they’re useful, and where they came from.
Byes: None
Already Played: Already Played: None
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A quick note -
This week’s walkthrough will be a more abbreviated version of the usual article. Given that it’s Week 18 and the only fantasy worth playing is DFS, I’ll have very short writeups on some teams and, in other cases, just notes on one or two players. I’ll be focusing primarily on the offenses we expect to be playing competitively this week. For that, I’ll be leaning heavily on Kyle Dvorchak’s Week 18 motivation tracker.
I also highly recommend this thread from Anthony Amico with important contract incentives that could come into play this week:
NFL player incentives thread for 2021 Week 18:
— Anthony Amico (@amicsta) January 3, 2022
Easy start is with Cooper Kupp: https://t.co/ArBkTbFtpF
Going forward, I’ll be continuing the walkthrough throughout the playoffs... with the normal deep-dive approach.
Thanks for reading,
-Pat
Chiefs at Broncos, 4:30 PM Eastern, Saturday
Chiefs Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 27.5
Patrick Mahomes is coming off a loss to the Bengals. But he played well against them—continuing a strong stretch of efficient performances—finishing fifth in EPA* per play (which measures efficiency) and third in CPOE (which measures accuracy). Mahomes would have had a more productive game if the Bengals weren’t intent on not giving him the ball back to close the game. On their final drive, the Bengals ran 6:01 off the clock and kicked a winning field goal as the game’s final play. Otherwise, Mahomes could have built on an unspectacular 259-2 passing line.
This week Mahomes and the Chiefs will be playing for a first-round bye. Per Kyle Dvorchak’s motivation tracker, a loss would risk them falling down the seeding ranks, so they’re unlikely to pull starters unless they succeed in blowing out the Broncos.
Of course, there’s a decent chance of that occurring with the Chiefs as 10.5 point favorites. So we’ll likely need the Chiefs to be highly efficient because they may not play a full four quarters. Fortunately, the Broncos rank 18th in EPA allowed per dropback, 31st in pass-rush grade, and 21st in coverage grade. Mahomes shouldn’t have much trouble against them.
Tyreek Hill is the safest bet for an efficient game, as usual. He leads the team with a 27% target share and a 37% air yard share and has an elite 2.15 YPRR. Hill’s 11.0 aDOT makes him less explosive than in years past, but he can still put up huge games as a target hog with breakaway ability.
Travis Kelce‘s 7.5 aDOT makes him less likely to hit big plays and more dependent on target volume. But he’s gotten the targets, and he also leads the Chiefs with an 85% route rate. He remains an elite TE play even if he’s not as exciting as he used to be.
Darrell Williams handled 80% of snaps in Week 17, with 16.7 expected points. He could lose some work to Derrick Gore if things get really out of hand, but he looks trustworthy as a clear lead back.
*(Expected Points Added, EPA, is an efficiency metric that calculates the expected points of a game situation compared to the previous play. This measures how much each play added or subtracted from a team’s point expectation. I exclude garbage time for all EPA data in this article and used adjusted EPA per play, which caps the penalty for negative plays. Data courtesy of rbsdm.com)
Broncos Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 17
The Broncos are playing for pride this week, but they’ll have Drew Lock at quarterback, so pride may be hard to come by.
Lock ranked 26th in EPA per play and 27th in CPOE against the Chargers. With Jerry Jeudy back this week, the wide receiver target share looks too spread to get excited about. Jeudy is still the best bet, though. He has a strong 1.89 YPRR that is supported by his target profile.
Noah Fant is coming off a big game where he was targeted on 28% of his routes and delivered a 13.1 YPT. He’s unlikely to repeat with Jeudy back, going against a defense that ranks ninth in coverage grade. But he’s still more interesting than any of the non-Jeudy wide receivers.
The Broncos are most likely to try to play for a friendly loss here, which means running as much as possible.
The Broncos have been very consistent about playing this as a 50/50 split. And that split is the most likely outcome again this week. But if we do see one back take a bigger share this week, my bet would be on Melvin Gordon, a free agent after the season, instead of Javonte Williams, who is dealing with a knee issue.
Cowboys at Eagles, 8:15 PM Eastern, Saturday
Cowboys Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 23.5
The Cowboys are playing an Eagles team that is locked into a playoff spot and doesn’t have much to play for in terms of seeding. The Cowboys have already won the NFC East, so the 4 point favorites could be quick to pull their starters. To that point, Tony Pollard isn’t traveling with the team despite dealing with a minor injury that he’s previously played through.
There is upside in the passing game here, though. The Cowboys rank eighth in situation neutral pass rate and haven’t been run-heavy in pass rate over expected since Week 5.
Multiple Cowboys receivers are hard to trust in what could be a low-volume passing environment. But assuming the Cowboys get near their 23.5 implied team total, there’s a good chance that at least some of their scoring comes through the air. And it might be easier to land on the right receiver with Michael Gallup‘s injury condensing target share.
CeeDee Lamb ran a route on 91% of dropbacks in Week 17, with Amari Cooper at 93%. With Gallup out, there’s no doubt that he will be a full-time player. Lamb has 2.08 YPRR, far better than Cooper’s 1.58. He’s the best bet among the Cowboys starters... but the downside is that all starters are pulled fairly early.
Ezekiel Elliott had a 70% snaps share in Week 17 and 75% of backfield attempts. Dallas could pretty easily funnel their TDs through him, which makes him interesting despite the risk of reduced snaps.
Eagles Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 19.5
The Eagles are facing an extremely difficult Cowboys pass defense that ranks second in EPA allowed per dropback, eighth in pass-rush grade, and eighth in coverage grade. They could pull starters early in this game, having already made the playoffs, and have a low implied total.
Still, the Cowboys could be pulling defensive starters, which would help DeVonta Smith hit some big plays. With a 19% target rate and a 15.2 aDOT, he just needs to run hot on a few plays to deliver a strong day.
Dallas Goedert already is running hot. His 11.5 YPT is wildly good for his 8.4 aDOT. At this point, we’ve basically run out of time for regression. Goedert is going to put up an extremely impressive season in per-target efficiency. But because of his more shallow target profile, he looks like a riskier bet than Smith on limited volume.
With the Eagles dealing with a Covid outbreak and injuries in the backfield, they’ll need someone to handle the workload; ideally someone they don’t plan to play in the playoffs. That right, it’s Kenneth Gainwell szn.
Gainwell has actually played pretty well this season as a receiver, ranking RB14 in YPRR. The Eagles may still find a way not to play him, but he has a path to dominating snaps as a backup disguised as a starter this week.
Washington at Giants, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Washington Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 22.25
Washington has been eliminated from the playoffs, and starters reps are in question for this game. Antonio Gibson has been activated off the Covid list, but there’s little no reason for Washington to roll him out for a meaningless game in a season where he’s dealt with numerous nagging injuries. He has some nice TD upside as a 7 point favorite on the Giants if they do.
Giants Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 15.25
The Giants were utterly incompetent on offense last week, in a way that almost defies belief.
Saquon Barkley topped 100 yards last week, but that felt like a miracle. He’ll likely be splitting reps with Devontae Booker this week. I’m looking elsewhere.
Bengals at Browns, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Bengals Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 15.75
The Bengals will start Brandon Allen at quarterback and may ultimately prefer to lose this game due to first-round matchup implications. With Joe Mixon on the Covid list, Samaje Perine should see a full workload.
Perine faces a Browns defense that ranks 19th in EPA allowed per rush and ninth in run defense grade. He won’t run all over them, but he has upside for a nice day with the backfield mostly to himself.
On the other hand, it’s not ideal for your running back to be on a team with a 15.75 implied team total.
Browns Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 21.75
We’re looking at Case Keenum offense passing this week, with Nick Chubb‘s reps likely to be managed. D’Ernest Johnson‘s addition to the Covid list puts Kareem Hunt in play. Hunt is under contract for one more season with the Browns but carries no dead money on his deal, and cutting or trading him would save $6.25 million. With Chubb locked up long-term and D’Ernest Johnson a restricted free agent (and therefore very likely to be back with the team), it would make sense for the Browns to get a final look at Hunt this season and to let other teams get a look at him too.
Hunt ranks sixth in elusive rating, 13th in breakaway percentage, and 10th in YPRR, so maybe the Browns feel great about him and just want to get him to next year. But on the other hand, he should be effective if they decide to give him some run with a lighter day on tap for Chubb.
Steelers at Ravens, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Steelers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 18.75
Both the Steelers and Ravens are technically live to make the playoffs with a win, so we’ll likely see both teams’ starters throughout this game. Given this week’s lack of reliable options, Chase Claypool is interesting. The Ravens rank 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback, 19th in pash rush grade, and 27th in coverage grade. Baltimore held up better than expected against the Rams, but they are still a very weak pass defense and remain tied with the Jets for the most 15+ yard passes allowed.
Of course, Ben Roethlisberger isn’t a great bet for 15+ yard passes. He ranks 24th in deep ball rate and 25th in adjusted completion percentage on deep passes. Roethlisberger also has a 7.1 aDOT; only Jared Goff has averaged shallower throws this season. But when playing the Ravens in Week 13, Roethlisberger did attempt six deep passes, which was tied for the fourth most of the week.
The Ravens have also allowed the third-most passes for first downs this season. So while the Ravens are very vulnerable deep, Roethlisberger could also find success by peppering his receivers with shallow targets.
And in fact, when Roethlisberger played the Ravens in Week 13, Diontate Johnson saw a 40% target share, delivering 8 receptions for 108 yards and 2 TDs. Johnson is coming off the Covid list, so his snaps could be managed. But he has a 29% target share this season and looks like a high upside PPR option.
Najee Harris’s route rates have started to climb in recent weeks, with two 70%+ route rates in the last three weeks. Prior to Week 15, his last 70% route rate was back in Week 9. Harris is coming off a week with just a 7% target share, but with his routes back up, and the Steelers pass rate likely to increase, he could see additional check down work this week. And obviously, he’ll handle the full backfield workload.
Ravens Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 22.25
We’re very likely to see another Tyler Huntley game this week. Huntley hasn’t been amazing this year, but he’s been better than we generally expect from a backup, ranking 31st in EPA per play and 19th in CPOE.
He’s facing a Steelers offense that ranks 15th in EPA allowed per dropback. The Steelers are a middling defense, but they get there by being excellent up front, with the second graded pash rush, and poor in the secondary, grading 25th in coverage.
Mark Andrews continues to be the top receiver in Baltimore, and the Ravens are leaning into it. He ran a route on 97% of dropbacks against the Rams, which is a higher route rate than most receivers typically post. He’s seen a target rate of 23%+ in six of the last seven weeks and should continue to be the engine of the passing game.
Rashod Bateman actually led the team with a 34% target share against the Rams and finished with a 92% route rate, his third straight week at 90%+. Marquise Brown has an elite 2.18 YPRR to Bateman’s poor 1.33, so there’s no doubt that Brown is the better bet for production. But Bateman is locked into a starting role at least, and Huntley has been looking for him.
Packers at Lions, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Packers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 24.25
The Packers are locked into the NFC’s No. 1 seed, and Packers starters aren’t expected to get anywhere close to a full allotment of snaps. That could mean additional work for A.J. Dillon, but even that is a risky bet. This will be a Jordan Love-led offense for much of the game, and skill player snaps are highly uncertain.
Lions Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 20.75
The Lions have nothing to play for... but they haven’t all season, and that hasn’t stopped them from playing competitive football. They should be actively trying to lose here to get the No. 1 pick, but that’s not really Dan Campbell‘s deal.
Whether Jared Goff (knee) or Tim Boyle is at quarterback, we should see the starting offense run through Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown is now up five straight weeks of a 31%+ target share. His highest aDOT over that stretch was 8.6, and he’s dipped as low a 5.4, so he’s more Hunter Renfrow than Cooper Kupp. Still, getting any reliable production out of this passing game has been a gift, and St. Brown is up to 1.64 YPRR. He’s playing well and has a high target floor.
Last week was a big disappointment for D’Andre Swift‘s role. Campbell hyped his return but then gave Swift just 21% of the backfield attempts, which tied him with Craig Reynolds and was well behind Jamaal Williams’ 58%. Swift led the backfield with a 57% snap share, however, and he’s a sneaky bet to see more work this week as a result.
Colts at Jaguars, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Colts Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 29.5
The Colts need to win to make the playoffs. Great, so we’ll see a full game from the starters? ... well...
The Jaguars are actually better off losing this game because they’re in a battle with the Lions for the top pick in the draft. And what’s really the point of an interim head coach if you can’t tell him not to win a meaningless game that will cost you the top pick?
As 15 point favorites, this game could be over quickly. But with a 29.5 implied team total, the betting market still expects the Colts to put up a lot of points. The easiest way for them to do that is by letting Jonathan Taylor take them to the playoffs.
Taylor ranks second in NFL Next Gen’s success/attempt metric, third in breakaway percentage, 10th in elusive rating, and 16th in YPRR. He’s not just an elite talent; he’s an all-around back. Taylor is capable of delivering a big game against the Jaguars’ 29th graded run defense in less than four quarters.
Jaguars Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 14.5
The Jaguars have been unwatchable this season, and that’s when they were actually trying to win.
Bears at Vikings, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Bears Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 19.25
We were promised one last game of Justin Fields this week, but he has since been placed on the Covid list. We’re now looking at an Andy Dalton game to close out the Matt Nagy era, which seems fitting.
Dalton is going against a Vikings team that has nothing to play for but whose coach also knows that he’s on his way out the door. My expectation is that we could see both coaches play out this game normally.
If so, David Montgomery is set up very well against a Vikings team that ranks 30th in EPA allowed per rush and 21st in run defense grade. The Bears are a run-first team with a -2% pass rate over expected and will happily attack the Vikings on the ground—as they did in Week 15 with a -5% pass rate over expected.
Montgomery has seen an average workload of 17.2 expected points this season and handled 81% of snaps last week. The Bears may pull him if the game’s outcome becomes obvious, but he should get plenty of work before then.
Vikings Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 24.75
Mike Zimmer seems likely to let Kirk Cousins play a full game here, and I don’t get the feeling that he’ll be calling max protect passing plays for him either.
Cousins is facing a Bears defense that ranks 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback, and that could take a few series to get used to NFL level quarterbacking again after facing the Giants last week.
Even after Justin Jefferson‘s disappointing Week 17, he has an ultra-elite 2.52 YPRR. He should get back on track this week in what has a small but real chance of being his last game with Kirk Cousins.
With this presumably being Zimmer’s last game coaching the Vikings, it would be a bit of a shame if he didn’t go out running the ball heavily. The Vikings have a -2% pass rate over expected this season, but they shifted to -9% when facing the Bears in Week 15.
The Bears are a major run funnel, with teams shifting 4% to the run against them. This makes a ton of sense, with Chicago ranking 31st in EPA allowed per rush and 31st in run defense grade.
Assuming he gets a full complement of snaps, Dalvin Cook is set up to rebound nicely from his Week 17 flop with Sean Mannion at quarterback. This hasn’t been Cook’s best season, but he still ranks 14th in success/attempt and fifth in breakaway percentage. Hopefully, he can rip off some big runs for Zimmer.
Titans at Texans, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Titans Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 26.5
The Titans are one of the more motivated teams of the week. If they win, they get a first-round bye. They’re playing a Texans team that has been frisky all season and actually beat the Titans in Week 11. Tennessee won’t be messing around this week.
Ryan Tannehill ranks 11th in EPA per play and ninth in CPOE. He’s facing a Texans defense that ranks 25th in EPA allowed per dropback, 15th in pass rush, and 31st in coverage grade. However, Tannehill struggled badly against them in Week 11, finishing 28th in EPA per play.
The Titans have a -8% pass rate over expected, the lowest in the NFL. In Week 11, they were pushed out of their comfort zone and posted a 1% PROE. It’s possible the shift to the pass again this week, but they’ll likely be more run-heavy than in their loss to the Texans.
Fortunately, the Titans backfield is back to having a clear lead back: D’Onta Foreman. Foreman logged 65% of snaps last week and 72% of backfield attempts. He’s at just 45% and 60% over the last two weeks, but if the Titans play from out front as expected, Foreman should get significantly more work than the other backs.
When the Titans played the Texans in Week 11, their top three receivers were Dez Fitzpatrick, Chester Rogers, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. With A.J. Brown fully healthy, they should be able to take better advantage of the passing matchup.
Efficiency will be important for Brown to post a big day. As 10.5 point favorites, the Titans aren’t expected to be pushed by the Texans, so target volume could be low. For example, in an easy win over the Dolphins, Brown saw a whopping 63% air yard share to go with a very strong 28% target share. But... Browns saw just five targets and posted a 2-41 receiving line. When the Titans passing game balloons, Brown can have huge weeks. But unless the Texans surprise on offense, he’s a bet that his elite 2.53 YPRR will translate into a hyper-efficient outing against a poor pass defense.
Texans Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 16
Davis Mills has been surprisingly good this season, ranking 29th in EPA per play and 21st in CPOE. He’s been better than every rookie quarterback except Mac Jones in both metrics.
Mills hasn’t faced the Titans yet this year, and he’ll be going against a solid unit that ranks 10th in EPA allowed per dropback. They’ve achieved that ranking through a 5th graded coverage unit and despite a 28th graded pass rush. Mills will use the extra time to throw to look for Brandin Cooks.
Cooks has a 28% target share. Mills is willing to target other receivers, but downfield, Cooks is really the only option with a 42% air-yard share. Cooks has managed a 1.97 YPRR, which is extremely impressive given his offensive environment.
David Johnson will be back this week, which makes Rex Burkhead difficult to trust even as a flier. The Titans are also a pass runnel, and the Texans should be running the offense through Mills more than usual this week as a result.
Saints at Falcons, 4:25 PM Eastern, Sunday
Saints Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 21.5
The Saints make the playoffs with a win and a 49ers loss, so they should be going all out here. They face a Falcons defense that ranks 26th in EPA allowed per dropback and 23rd in EPA allowed per rush.
Hill remains a punt quarterback play. But Alvin Kamara is the ceiling play. Unfortunately, Kamara hasn’t been the hyper-efficient rusher that we saw in previous seasons. Kamara ranks 49th in success/attempt, 48th in breakaway percentage, and 37th in elusive rating. He still ranks eighth in YPRR and remains an elite receiving back, but the Falcons will need to push the Saints for him to really get going this week. Otherwise, this version of Kamara in this offense looks dependent on short TDs to hit a ceiling.
Falcons Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 18
The Falcons have nothing to play for this week. They’ve been managing Cordarrelle Patterson‘s touches for weeks, and their star rookie tight end is nursing a hamstring injury. Facing a Saints defense that ranks fourth in EPA per allowed per dropback and second in EPA allowed per rush, they look like thin bets for fantasy production across the board.
Seahawks at Cardinals, 4:25 PM Eastern, Sunday
Seahawks Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 21.25
The Seahawks have nothing to play for in Week 18, but Russell Wilson may be playing for a trade. They should be pushed by a motivated Cardinals team, and we could get a full game from the starters here.
Russell Wilson is coming off his third-most efficient week of the season against the Lions and ranked second in EPA per play on the week. But he ranked just 12th in CPOE. His accuracy hasn’t been the same since he returned from injury.
Wilson is now facing a Cardinals defense that ranks seventh in EPA allowed per dropback, ninth in pass-rush grade, and 18th in coverage grade. It will be harder to get away with middling accuracy against this unit.
D.K. Metcalf went off for three TDs against the Lions, spiking for a 32% target share and 46% air yard share. Metcalf is still running cold with an 8.0 YPT, however. His 1.92 YPRR understates what he is capable of, and his 24% target rate with his 13.1 aDOT indicates that he could keep things rolling this week.
Tyler Lockett has 2.28 YPRR and could easily hit for a big game instead of Metcalf. Wilson isn’t as likely as he was last year to support a spike week from Lockett or Metcalf, but Lockett has quietly had an elite season from an efficiency standpoint. He could close things out impressively if this game is high scoring.
Rashaad Penny is making the Seahawks a lot more fun. Instead of a clock-grinding run game, Seattle is now hitting big run plays at an elite clip. Penny leads the NFL in success/attempt and breakaway percentage. He’s also second to D’Ernest Johnson in elusive rating. Penny is facing a Cardinals defense that ranks 22nd in run defense grade. It’s not a perfect spot for him since the Cardinals could force the Seahawks to the air, which Penny isn’t suited to. But if the game stays close, he could close out his comeback story in impressive fashion.
Cardinals Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 26.75
The Cardinals will be playing with full motivation here, as they can win the NFC West if they win and the Rams lose.
The Seahawks rank 22nd in EPA allowed per dropback, and sixth in EPA allowed per rush, so the move is to attack them through the air and put them away on the ground if needed.
Kyler Murray ranks ninth in EPA per play and is back up to first in CPOE. He proved last week that he can survive without DeAndre Hopkins, coaxing a 2 TD game out of Antoine Wesley.
Christian Kirk and Zach Ertz remain the best passing game options here. Last week, Kirk ran just one more route than Ertz, who is effectively the Cardinals’ WR2. Ertz remains volume-dependent, though, because of his 6.9 aDOT. Kirk’s 11.8 aDOT gives him more upside, and his 1.89 YPRR points to spike week potential.
With Chase Edmonds out this week, the Cardinals will need to lean on James Conner if his heel is healthy enough to allow him to play. Conner has been very impressive as a receiver this season, ranking ninth in YPRR. With Edmonds out of the lineup, he has an exciting combination of receiving upside and TD equity.
Jets at Bills, 4:25 PM Eastern, Sunday
Jets Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 12.5
The Jets have a 12.5 implied team total, and Braxton Berrios was placed on injured reserve this week. That leaves Michael Carter as the only Jet in play.
Carter has quietly had an impressive season. He ranks ninth in success/attempt, 16th in breakaway percentage, fourth in elusive rating, and 12th in elusive rating. He looks like an all-around talent. If the Jets have a pulse this week, he could exceed expectations in his return from a concussion.
Bills Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 28
The Bills win the AFC East with a victory here, so the Bills should be playing the starters. Although as 16 favorites, it’s quite likely they don’t need a full four quarters. The Bills can also win the AFC East if the Patriots lose to the Dolphins, which adds risk that they pull their starters if the Patriots are losing badly.
Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis are both set up well against a Jets defense that has allowed the highest rate of 15+ yard passes this season. Davis has a 13.8 aDOT, with Diggs at 12.1. Not only are their profiles good fits for the matchup, but they don’t need a ton of plays to hit value, which is excellent considering the starters could be pulled in a blowout.
To that point, Devin Singletary is a risky bet. His value has come primarily from getting a huge share of the backfield opportunity. The Bills could be looking to ease up that workload in advance of the playoffs.
Panthers at Buccaneers, 4:25 PM Eastern, Sunday
Panthers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 16.5
D.J. Moore gets a pass funnel... but he also gets terrible quarterback play.
Moore has a very weak 7.3 YPT this year but an elite 25% target rate for his 10.9 aDOT. If the Panthers play the matchup this week, he has volume-based spike week upside.
Buccaneers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 25
The Buccaneers plan to play their starters in this game, according to Bruce Arians, whose honesty I honestly cannot for the life of me remember someone questioning.
For as long as Brady and company are on the field, they should be successful, but the snaps of Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski are in real question this week.
The Buccaneers are also facing a Panthers defense that ranks ninth in EPA allowed per dropback, but just 17th in EPA allowed per dropback. As a result, teams are averaging a -5% PROE against them and are shifting 5% to the run. They are tied with the Chargers for the biggest run funnel in the league.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn will reportedly be splitting snaps with Le’Veon Bell. Isn’t Week 18 the best?
Patriots at Dolphins, 4:25 PM Eastern, Sunday
Patriots Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 23
The Patriots have a chance to win the AFC East if they win and the Bills lose, so they’ll likely be playing their starters throughout the majority of the game.
Mac Jones will be facing a Dolphins defense that ranks first in blitz rate. And while Jones has faired decently well against the blitz, he ranks second to only Josh Allen in blitzes faced per dropback. He’ll be facing a heavy dose of blitzes this week, and his YPA has dropped from 7.5 to 6.7 when blitzed this season.
Jones has played well overall, however. He ranks 13th in EPA per play and fourth in CPOE. He should be able to facilitate the offense for a strong rushing game.
Damien Harris is still dealing with a hamstring injury, but with the Patriots less than a TD favorite, they’ll likely lean on him to begin the game. He ranks fifth in success/attempt and was clearly ahead of Rhamondre Stevenson before being pulled from the blowout win over the Jaguars.
Dolphins Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 16.5
The Dolphins are eliminated from the playoffs, but no one wants to be embarrassed by Bill Belichick. We’ll likely see them playing the starters.
Unfortunately, the Miami starters have combined to score six points over the last two weeks. They now face a defense ranked 12th in EPA allowed per dropback and 12th in coverage grade.
Tua Tagovailoa ranks 19th in EPA per play and 11th in CPOE. He’s not a disaster, but he’s one-dimensional; only Jimmy Garoppolo and Daniel Jones have attempted deep passes at a lower rate this year. In fairness to Tua, the Dolphins rank dead last in pass block grade; it’s not like he has all day to look downfield. Still, being one-dimensional isn’t great against the Patriots.
Jaylen Waddle perfectly suits Tagovailoa’s skill set and current play style. He has just a 7.1 aDOT, which has allowed him to lead the Dolphins with a 24% target rate. Waddle’s 1.78 YPRR also leads the team. The Dolphins are projected to struggle to get to three TDs this week, but Waddle can deliver a strong fantasy day through PPR volume.
49ers at Rams, 4:25 PM Eastern, Sunday
49ers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 20.25
The 49ers can make the playoff with the win and are facing a motivated Rams team that wins the NFC West with a win.
Jimmy Garoppolo looks likely to start. He ranks third in EPA per play and eighth in CPOE this season and is facing a Rams defense that ranks fifth in EPA allowed per dropback. It’s a difficult spot, but if the Rams can push the 49ers on the other side, there should be enough volume for this highly efficient offense to overcome the matchup.
Deebo Samuel has a 2.99 YPRR, and George Kittle is at 2.53. It’s honestly shocking how efficient both have been in the same offense. Any time that volume can potentially balloon, they profile as having elite upside.
Elijah Mitchell handled 100% of backfield touches in Week 17 but only played 58% of snaps. He should be up meaningfully this week in a must-win game and profiles as a volume-based RB1.
Rams Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 24.25
Matthew Stafford finished seventh in EPA per play in Week 17, but he also threw a pick-six, and he left a lot of meat on the bone against an extremely vulnerable Ravens secondary.
Stafford ranks sixth in EPA per play but just 23rd in CPOE. He’s delivering Joe Burrow efficiency with Jared Goff accuracy. And obviously, he’s been nowhere near Burrow over the last two weeks. His accuracy makes him a volatile option.
But Stafford remains a high upside option, and he does at least get a 49ers defense that ranks 24th in EPA allowed per dropback and 15th in coverage grade. The 49ers do rank fifth in pass-rush grade, but if Stafford can stay upright, he could be in for an efficient day.
Stafford’s volume is in a bit more question. The Rams are a pass-first team, with a 4% pass rate over expected. But they actually shifted to the run against the Ravens with a 2% PROE. The Ravens are the second biggest pass funnel in the league, seeing a 4% shift to the pass, so the Rams were going against the grain of the matchup and counter to their own tendencies in Week 17. This could signal a slight shift in philosophy as Matthew Stafford struggles with consistency. Regardless of the outcome here, the Rams’ offensive approach will be important to watch for the playoffs.
Cooper Kupp obviously remains an absolute smash play, with 3.11 YPRR, and record hunting. And I’ll continue to be intrigued by Odell Beckham Jr.'s 20% target rate, despite him having just a 7.0 YPT.
Sony Michel is the second-most important skill player in the offense, however. He saw a 22.2 expected point workload against the Ravens and will likely see another huge workload this week.
Chargers at Raiders, 8:15 PM Eastern, Sunday
Chargers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 26
The Chargers and Raiders are in a play-in game, so both are motivated to play their starters throughout.
Justin Herbert ranks seventh in EPA per play this year and 18th in CPOE. He’s a bit Stafford-esque in that his accuracy has been middling this season, but he’s played very efficiently overall. This sets up Herbert for more volatility than is ideal in a play-in game.
Herbert is going against a Raiders defense that ranks 20th in EPA allowed per dropback and 16th in coverage grade. The Raiders also rank sixth in pass-rush grade, and teams have tended to run against them rather than attack primarily through the air. Raiders opponents are shifting 4% to the run, and they are one of the biggest run funnels in the league.
The Chargers played the matchup in Week 4, posting a -1% PROE after opening the season with pass rates over expected of 10%, 9%, and 10%.
Ekeler ranks seventh in expected points per game, between Jonathan Taylor and Dalvin Cook. It’s been an incredible season for a player most assumed was just a satellite back when he entered the league.
Ekeler has also been strong as an all-around back. He ranks 19th in success/attempt, 21st in elusive rating, and sixth in YPRR. He’s not an explosive rusher, ranking just 36th in breakaway percentage. But he’s profiling as a smaller version of Christian McCaffrey, who is staying much healthier.
With Herbert’s mobility, the Chargers should have decent success when throwing the ball. Mike Williams has regained his lead over Keenan Allen in YPRR, 1.93 to 1.88. However, Allen is seeing a much stronger 25% target rate and looks like the better play.
Raiders Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 23
Derek Carr has played admirably without his two primary weapons down the stretch. He ranks 10th in EPA per play and sixth in EPA. But like Herbert, he is facing a run funnel defense.
Chargers opponents are shifting 5% to the pass, making them the biggest run funnel in the league. Interestingly, the Raiders had a 2% PROE against the Chargers in Week 4, in line with their season-long rate. Although... the Raiders started with an 8%+ PROE in two of their first three weeks. So at the time, a 2% PROE may have been a slight shift to the run.
This week they’re likely to be genuinely run-first. The Raiders have had a negative PROE for three straight weeks and have posted rates of -8% and -7% over the last two weeks. The Chargers defense ranks 27th in EPA allowed per rush, so the Raiders are likely to feel good about their run-heavy game plan.
Josh Jacobs ranks 11th in expected points per game over the last three weeks, and he has a great chance of having a top 10 workload this week. Jacobs isn’t a great rusher, but he breaks tackles, ranking 15th in elusive rating. On increased volume, he looks like a strong play this week.
Sources
To write this article, I relied on the following stats, metrics, and grades.
- Implied Team Totals are calculated using the lines at PointsBet.
- Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play).
- Efficiency metric based on how much a play improved a team’s likelihood of scoring.
- I use this metric primarily for QB efficiency but also for defensive efficiency.
- Data from Ben Baldwin’s rbsdm.com
- All EPA/play referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- I do this by setting win probability filter to between 10-90%.
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- QB accuracy metric
- Data from rbsdm.com
- All CPOE referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- I do this by setting win probability filter to between 10-90%.
- Pass Rate over Expected
- Measures passing decisions against what would be expected given the game situation.
- Situation Neutral Pass Rate
- Measures pass rate on downs and in situations when a team truly has the choice to pass or run.
- Situation Neutral Seconds per Play
- Seconds between plays in neutral game script.
- Faster play generally means more plays, which provides more opportunity for fantasy scoring.
- Adjusted Line Yards
- Run blocking stat that has been correlated with elite fantasy running back seasons.
- Snaps and Snap Share
- Probably the single most important stat for running back opportunity.
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- Teams check in and out of runs with only one back on the field. Being on the field is critical.
- Data from Pro Football Focus, AddMoreFunds and RotoViz
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- Target Share and Air Yard share
- The combination of these is called WOPR. Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this metric scales from 0-1.
- Data from Pro Football Focus and RotoViz
- Routes run per dropback
- Snap share for receivers... since I’m not concerned with who is playing run-blocking snaps.
- Data from Pro Football Focus
- Yards Per Route Run
- A YPRR of 1.8+ is good and anything 2+ is very good.
- This metric is particularly useful for young wide receivers whose role could grow as a result of strong play.
- It can also help identify truly elite wide receivers.
- It filters out in-game injuries and blowouts much better than target share does.
- Data from PFF
- Target per Route Run
- TPRR and Yards per Target combine to make up YPRR.
- TPRR is especially useful for tight ends.
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- Some offenses and quarterbacks prioritize throwing to the tight end much more than others.
- Some tight ends are far better at getting open than others.
- TPRR is much more stable than YPT, so in small samples especially, I’d rather know who is drawing targets than what happened afterward.
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- Expected Fantasy Points.
- Both RotoViz and PFF have similar Expected Points metrics that adjust opportunity based on the context of each play.
- I am referencing PFF’s metric unless otherwise stated.
- A number of other PFF stats including Time to Throw, Play Action Rate, Pressure Rate, Screen Passes and Defensive Grades.
