After seven long months, the cold dark loneliness of the NFL offseason has finally, mercifully come to an end.
It’s time for football.
Thursday night at Soldier Field, the NFL’s 100th season will get underway when the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears renew the league’s oldest rivalry—and with it another season of fantasy football.
And wouldn’t you know it, we only had to go one game into the season for fantasy GMs to have something of a difficult decision on their hands. [[ad:athena]]
The thing is, it’s really not that difficult a decision at all.
In the majority of fantasy football drafts, the Bears were the first team defense off the board. It’s true that defense doesn’t get the best of matchups to open the season in Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. But you didn’t invest an early(ish) pick in the Bears to sit then the first week of the season.
The Bears weren’t just the No. 1 fantasy defense in 2018. They were the top fantasy defense by a wide margin. And while there’s a lot of annual variance with defenses, right now last year’s numbers are really all we have to work with.
The Bears didn’t have a great fantasy outing the last time these teams met in the Windy City. But it wasn’t terrible either—in Week 15 last year the Bears notched five sacks, intercepted a pass, allowed just 17 points and finished inside the top-10 of most fantasy scoring systems.
Overthinking things early in the year is an easy trap to fall into. Don’t do it.
This isn’t to say that there aren’t high-end fantasy defenses with bigger problems in Week 1. But we’ll get to that in a moment.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Baltimore Ravens (at Miami Dolphins)
The Ravens had something of a rough offseason from a personnel perspective, losing their best inside linebacker (C.J. Mosley) and top-two edge-rushers (Za’Darius Smith and Terrell Suggs). But if ever there was a matchup to help a defense get off to the right start, it’s what’s left of the Miami Dolphins. The ‘Fins have a 36-year-old journeyman at quarterback, the weakest pass-catching corps in the NFL, a nicked-up lead back and an offensive line that just lost its left tackle in a trade with the Houston Texans. The Dolphins aren’t tanking. Really, they aren’t. Seriously—they aren’t tanking, despite the Everest-sized mountain of evidence that says otherwise. Target Miami’s offense this season. You won’t be disappointed.
Cleveland Browns (vs. Tennessee Titans)
The trade that brought Odell Beckham to Cleveland stole most of the headlines, but if the preseason was any indication, a Cleveland front four that added Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson in the offseason is no joke. The Titans struggled offensively last year and looked worse in exhibition action—especially an offensive line that will be without left tackle Taylor Lewan for the first four games of 2019 thanks to a PED suspension. The Titans ranked just outside the top-10 in fantasy points allowed to team defenses a year ago. Given what we’ve seen of Tennessee in 2019, the matchup is going to be that much better. In Week 1 at least, the Browns live up to all the offseason hype.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Washington Redskins)
The 2018 Eagles were an exercise in the year-to-year volatility of team defenses. Two seasons ago in their march to a Super Bowl win, the Eagles fielded a top-five fantasy unit defensively. Last season, due largely to a free-fall in takeaways of nearly 50 percent, Philly plummeted outside the top-25. That down year led to many fantasy drafters undervaluing the Eagles in 2019, but this remains a defense that can get after the quarterback. Washington has a below-average quarterback, way below average skill-position “talent” and an O-line missing Pro Bowl tackle Trent Williams. The Redskins were a top-10 fantasy matchup for defenses in 2018—and likely will be again this season.
Seattle Seahawks (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
The Seahawks made quite the splash on the final day of roster cutdowns, flipping two players and a Day 2 pick to the Houston Texans for Pro Bowl edge-rusher Jadeveon Clowney. It’s a move that could pay off big-time down the road, but given that he’s only been in camp and with the team a few days Clowney’s likely going to be on a pretty strict snap count. The thing is, against the Bengals at least the Seahawks might not really need him. A Bengals line that wasn’t good to begin with was hit hard in the offseason by injuries and retirements, and Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton won’t have No. 1 receiver A.J. Green (ankle) in this game. Throw in a raucous crowd at CenturyLink Field, and giddyup.
Dallas Cowboys (vs. New York Giants)
The contract impasse between the Cowboys and tailback Ezekiel Elliott has hung over the team like a dark cloud all summer long, but compared to the Giants it’s 80 degrees and sunny as all get out in Dallas. The tailback position might be the only offensive position that isn’t a mess in the Big Apple—the line’s a potential problem and with Golden Tate out the first four games of the season the passing-game weaponry isn’t scaring anyone. The Giants weren’t an especially good fantasy matchup for team defenses in 2018, but it’s hard to look at what passes for the Giants Offense and not see a favorable matchup. Zeke or no Zeke, the Cowboys are going to take care of business at home in Week 1.
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Kansas City Chiefs (at Jacksonville)
Full disclosure—I don’t expect the 2019 Chiefs Defense to be much better than the 2018 Chiefs Defense. The personnel are different, but not significantly better. Steve Spagnuolo’s track record as a defensive coordinator in his last couple of gigs is—let’s go with uninspiring. Switching schemes isn’t going to fix all that ails Kansas City. And I also expect the Jacksonville offense to be both more efficient and less error-prone under Nick Foles than the team was with Blake Bortles under center. But we’re still talking about a top-five fantasy defense from 2018 facing a top-five fantasy matchup for defenses from 2018. That’s got to be enough to at least merit a look as a streaming option.
Denver Broncos (at Oakland Raiders)
The Denver Broncos aren’t necessarily going to be an especially good team in 2019—they have the look of the third-best team in the AFC West. However, with Vic Fangio’s arrival as head coach it’s a safe-bet that the Broncos are going to continue to play well defensively, especially with a pair of formidable edge-rushers anchoring the unit in veteran Von Miller and youngster Bradley Chubb. The Raiders were a top-five fantasy matchup for team defenses in 2018, and while the Raiders should be an improved offensive football team in 2019 Oakland has the look of the fourth-best team in the AFC West. You can’t argue with math.
New Orleans Saints (vs. Houston Texans)
Yes, the Houston Texans have an electrifying young quarterback in Deshaun Watson. Arguably the NFL’s best wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins. And Houston took steps to address an offensive line that allowed an NFL-high 62 sacks in 2018 by mortgaging their future to obtain left tackle Laremy Tunsil from the Miami Dolphins. However, Tunsil just got to town, and one lineman isn’t going to single-handedly fix a line that surrendered over 60 sacks the previous season. The Saints have a history of dropping pianos on opponents at home in prime time. The Texans are going to be the latest team wearing a Wurlitzer on Monday night.
Detroit Lions (at Arizona Cardinals)
This is admittedly something of a speculative call—the Cardinals are a much different team than the unit who finished dead last in total offense and first in fantasy points allowed to team defenses in 2018. But at the end of the day, we’re still talking about a quarterback in Kyler Murray making his first NFL start. A head coach in Kliff Kingsbury coaching his first game in the NFL. And an offense that was absolutely putrid in every way imaginable in 2018. The Cardinals are going to be better offensively in 2019, but they aren’t going to suddenly be great. The Detroit defense is also better than its given credit for—the team finished 2018 10th in the NFL in yards allowed.
New York Jets (vs. Buffalo Bills)
The Jets can’t be accused of sitting on their hands defensively this offseason—Gang Green dropped $17 million a season on inside linebacker C.J. Mosley and invested the third overall pick in the 2019 draft in Alabama defensive lineman Quinnen Williams. That isn’t to say the Jets don’t have problems defensively—the pass rush is a huge question mark and the team already lost inside linebacker Avery Williamson to a season-ending ACL tear. But Sunday at home the Jets get to host a Bills team that was very kind to opposing defenses in 2018—no team in the AFC gave up more fantasy points in that regard. The Jets should be a serviceable streaming option for fantasy GMs who miss out on better plays.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
The 2018 season was a hot mess for the Jaguars in just about every way imaginable—including a defense that finished the season outside the top 10 in quite a few scoring systems. That defense should be better in 2019 despite the surprising decision of linebacker Telvin Smith to take the year off, and the addition of rookie Josh Allen gives an already loaded pass-rush another weapon. With that said though—Jacksonville’s Week 1 matchup is about as bad as it gets. In news that should surprise approximately zero percent of people who watch the NFL at all, no team surrendered fewer fantasy points per game to defenses in 2018 than the Chiefs. If you have any kind of viable alternative, use it.
Houston Texans (at New Orleans Saints)
If you drafted the Texans Defense based on name value and the presence of players like J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, it might be time to consider a Plan B. It’s not just that Clowney was flipped to Seattle—that’s a bummer, but not exactly a thunderbolt from the blue. But that also isn’t Houston’s only problem. The Texans lost both Kareem Jackson and Tyrann Mathieu in free agency, and replacements Bradley Roby and Tashaun Gipson are sizable downgrades. Now the team’s second-best edge-rusher is gone ahead of a trip to play in one of the more difficult stadiums for visitors in the NFL. Sit the Texans until they host the Jags at Reliant Stadium in Week 2.
Pittsburgh Steelers (at New England Patriots)
The Steelers were a tale of two defenses last year—an excellent pass rush hamstrung somewhat by a shaky secondary and glaring hole at inside linebacker. That latter hole appears to have been addressed quite nicely with the addition of rookie Devin Bush in the first round of the 2019 draft, and in their dress rehearsal beatdown of the Tennessee Titans the Steelers appeared to have the makings of a defensive unit that fantasy owners can make good use of in 2019. Week 1 isn’t the time to be using them though—for obvious reasons. Sunday night’s big game in Foxborough should be a great capper to the first full Sunday of regular season action this year, but both the Steelers and Patriots defenses are on the 10-foot pole list until Week 2—at least.
