The defenses I touch on are not my ranks, but my overall thoughts on the defenses I find notable. The goal of these pieces is to give you a concise, actionable rundown on defenses for the upcoming week.
We’re still early in the season, so some of the research will still come from last year, but we can still draw conclusions from what we saw in the previous weeks.
Defensive order is based on their opponents implied team total, from lowest to highest. The team in parenthesis is the defenses opponent.
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Worth Mentioning
Defenses that are highly owned, or worth noting overall.
Seahawks (vs. Colts — 14.25-point implied team total)
We just saw the Seahawks get shredded on the road by the Titans. They’ve been off to a slow start overall as they’ve allowed the eighth-most yards, and PFF has them ranked as the third-worst defensive unit overall. However, this spot is as good as it gets. They’re at home against a Colts team that is implied for 14.25 points. Per the FantasyLabs trends tool, since 2014 the Seattle defense has averaged 8.88 fantasy points per game when playing at home.
Jaguars (@ Jets — 18-point implied team total)
The only thing that could make this matchup better for the Jaguars is if they were at home. The Jaguars have allowed just 4.2 yards per play this season, which is the best mark in the league. They’ve allowed 25 percent of offensive drives to result in a score (also best in the league) and have forced a turnover on 22.2 percent of drives — the second-best mark in the among defenses. The Jets’ receivers will be out-matched against the Jacksonville corners and may struggle to move the ball as they’re implied for just 18 points.
Bengals (@ Browns — 18.25-point implied team total)
The Browns take on a Bengals team who now gets Vontaze Burfict back from suspension. Cincinnati is in a good spot against a Browns team that is implied for just 18.25 points and the Bengals’ defense ranks in the top-12 in points allowed (60), total yards (878), and yards per play (4.7).
Patriots (vs. Panthers — 19.5-point implied team total)
The Patriots take on a Panthers squad that struggled to force points on one of the worst defenses in the league last week. The Panthers have forced 40 points through three weeks — which is the third-lowest mark among offenses, right behind the Dolphins and the Bills. Keep in mind; the Dolphins have played only two games this season. Cam ranks 22nd in completion percentage this season and ranks 28th with a 5.1 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A).
Steelers (@ Ravens — 20.5-point implied team total)
It’s not ideal the Steelers are on the road, but they are three-point favorites against a team that just forced a weak seven points on the Jaguars in London. The Steelers’ defensive stats are eerily similar to the Jaguars. Jaguars: points allowed: 51, total yards: 779, plays against: 187, yards per play 4.2. Steelers: points allowed: 50, total yards: 778, plays against: 184, yards per play: 4.2. Both teams have also allowed a league-low 25 percent of offensive drives to end in a score.
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Chiefs (vs. Redskins — 21.5-point implied team total)
The Redskins struggled in the first two weeks of the season as Kirk Cousins adjusted to the new scheme of their offense. They seemed to click in Week 3 against a leaky Raiders defense that allowed Cousins and company to score 27 points. However, the Redskins will head to one of the toughest stadiums to play in at Arrowhead and are implied for just 21.5 points. They’re currently seven-point underdogs on the road. The Chiefs rank in the top-10 in scoring rate allowed and have already racked up 11 sacks this season — the fourth-most in the league.
Broncos (vs. Raiders — 22-point implied team total)
The Raiders march into Denver to face a defense that has allowed 5.3 net yards per attempt (sixth-best) and a league-low 2.6 yards per carry.
Texans (vs. Titans — 22.5-point implied team total)
Given the Texans are owned in 95-plus percent of leagues, if you have them, you’re likely starting them. It’s a boost they’re at home, but their defense has the third-lowest turnover rate this season and the Titans don’t turn the ball that often as they’ve turned the ball over on just 2.9 percent of their drives — the fourth-best rate among offenses.
Cardinals (vs. 49ers — No Line)
The Cardinals take on a 49ers offense that ranks in the bottom-12 in points forced, yards per play, total yards, and turnover rate. This game is off the books as of now, but given the Cardinals are at home, I imagine they’ll be at least six-point favorites.
Matchup Downgrade
Defenses with limited upside in the current matchup, but shouldn’t be dropped.
Vikings (vs. Lions — No Line)
With Sam Bradford’s status up in the air, we have no Vegas line for this game. This isn’t necessarily a “bad” matchup for the Vikings, but the Lions have done a good job of taking care of the football this season, with a turnover rate of just 5.9 percent, the eighth-lowest rate among offenses. It’s a boost for the Vikings they’re at home, but if a defense doesn’t score a touchdown, they need to get by with sacks and turnovers, and the Vikings have forced the fourth-fewest sacks this season.
Ravens (vs. Steelers — 23.5-point implied team total)
Somehow, the Ravens’ defense surrendered 44 points to the Jaguars in Week 3. However, prior to that, they had allowed just 14 points to opposing offenses. The Ravens’ defensive stats are skewed after giving up 410 yards and 44 points last week. The Steelers’ home/road splits are common knowledge now, and everyone is aware of the low-scoring nature of these AFC North meetings, but I wouldn’t be thrilled about rolling out the Ravens this week.
Panthers (@ Patriots — 28.5-point implied team total)
Potential Streamers
See Above.
Packers (vs. Bears — 19-point implied team total)
The Packers defense is not great overall, as PFF grades them in the bottom-12 among defenses. They also rank in the bottom-half with allowing a score on 36.7 percent of drives to go along with their league-low 3.3 percent turnover rate. However, they’re appealing as a potential streamer at home against the Bears on a short week, as Chicago is implied for a weak 19 points.
Falcons (vs. Bills — 20.25-point implied team total)
The main concern with streaming the Falcons is LeSean McCoy. The Falcons have allowed the fifth-most rushing touchdowns this season while allowing 4.6 yards per attempt. They also have trouble defending running backs against the pass as they allowed 9.1 targets and 53.4 yards per game to opposing running backs last season (Football Outsiders.)
Buccaneers (vs. Giants — 20.5-point implied team total)
Now with a healthy Odell Beckham, the Giants won’t be as exciting to stream against, and the Buccaneers may be down two starting linebackers in Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David. However, the Giants’ offensive line is still one of the worst in the league, which could give the Buccaneers a decent floor if they can get to Eli Manning. The Giants are implied for just 20.5 points.
Lions (@ Vikings — No Line)
The Lions’ defense is currently the No. 1 overall defense in terms of fantasy points, but they have lucked out due to a defensive touchdown in each game. That’s not something you can count on a regular basis. However, they have forced the second-most interceptions in the league (seven) and rank second with a 22.2 percent turnover rate. The Vikings do have some great offensive weapons with tremendous upside, Case Keenum (if starting) looked better in this second start last week, and with the Lions being on the road — I wouldn’t expect another double-digit fantasy outing.
Kickers in Order of Implied Team Total
These are NOT kicker ranks. For those, check out Pat Daugherty’s ranks later in the week. Kicker fantasy points have a strong correlation to Vegas implied team totals. Here are the top kickers in order of implied team total in order to help you find possible streamers.
Stephen Gostkowski (28.5-point implied team total)
Matt Bryant (28.25-point implied team total)
Cairo Santos (28-point implied team total)
Blair Walsh (27.25-point implied team total)
Mason Crosby (26.5-point implied team total)
Wil Lutz (25.75-point implied team total)
Brandon McManus (24.5-point implied team total)
Younghoe Koo (24.25-point implied team total)
Nick Folk (23.5-point implied team total)
Chris Boswell (23.5-point implied team total)
Cody Parkey (23.25-point implied team total)
Jake Elliott (23.25-point implied team total)
Ryan Succop (22.5-point implied team total)
