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If you were one of the fantasy managers who drafted a high-end defense early in 2021, then you are likely not an especially satisfied customer.
By virtue of the Average Draft Position Data at Fantasy Pros, the first defense off draft boards over the summer was the Pittsburgh Steelers. That’s not surprising—the Steelers led the NFL in both sacks and fantasy points among defenses last year. But while Pittsburgh hasn’t been terrible this year, they haven’t come close to meeting expectations—the Steelers are 14th in scoring defense, 15th in fantasy points and have just eight sacks for the year.
The No. 2 defense drafted was Aaron Donald and the Los Angeles Rams. The “issues” in Los Angeles have as much to do with who they have played than how they have played, but after matchups with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals the Rams are allowing almost 25 points a game and rank 17th in fantasy points.[[ad:athena]]
At No. 3, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have at least hung around the top 10 in fantasy points. But the Buccaneers have also managed just seven sacks for the season, and their injury-ravaged secondary is surrendering the most passing yards per game in the entire NFL.
Then there’s the Washington Football Team, who were drafted fourth. Frankly, Washington’s defense might be the single biggest disappointment of the first month of the season. The supposedly formidable defensive line hasn’t gotten any kind of consistent pressure. The secondary has been roasted with alarming regularity. After allowing 30 points to Atlanta last week, the WFT is allowing the third-most points and fourth-most yards per game while ranking 29th in fantasy points among defenses.
If you drafted that dumpster fire of a defense, bail. Stop waiting for things to get better and grab a matchup play—Washington has already blown multiple matchups that appeared favorable on paper. With the others, the decision is trickier—but it’s more than understandable if patience is wearing then as we head to Week 5.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Miami Dolphins)
The Buccaneers were very fortunate from an injury standpoint in their march to the Super Bowl last year, but that luck has dried up in the early-going this year. The secondary has been especially hard-hit, with top corner Carlton Davis the latest to suffer a potentially serious injury. Against most NFL teams, that patchwork secondary would be a major problem. But Sunday the Buccaneers play host to Jacoby and the Wormburners and a Dolphins offense that has had precious little success moving the ball through the air with Jacoby Brissett under center.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Denver Broncos)
To be fair to the Black and Gold, the Steelers haven’t played badly defensively, especially when T.J. Watt has been on the field, The defense has just been put in an untenable position by an offense that can’t move the ball. Things aren’t going to get any easier for that offense Sunday against the Denver Broncos (that feels like foreshadowing), but the matchup for the defense got exponentially better the moment that Drew Lock took over under center last week against the Baltimore Ravens. If Teddy Bridgewater can’t clear the concussion protocol for this game, look for the Steelers to tee off.
New England Patriots (at Houston Texans)
The Patriots may be a 1-3 football team, but the blame for that slow start can’t be laid at the feet of Bill Belichick‘s defense—the Pats rank fifth in the NFL in total defense, sixth in scoring defense and seventh in fantasy points. But this call has less to do with an admittedly solid New England defense than the “team” the Pats play Sunday. The Davis Mills-led Houston Texans completely imploded in Buffalo last week, managing just 109 yards of offense while turning it over five times in a 40-0 loss to the Buffalo Bills. I feel like those numbers sum things up pretty well.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
There were some questions regarding the Baltimore defense entering 2021, and those concerns were amplified after the team lost in Las Vegas in overtime in Week 1. But Baltimore appears to have ironed out many of the issues, giving up just a tad over 250 yards and a single touchdown last week against the Denver Broncos. The Colts played their best game of the offseason in Miami a week ago, but we’re still talking about a team that ranks 22nd in the league in scoring offense. The Colts have given up 10 sacks and sit just outside the top 10 in fantasy points surrendered to defenses.
Arizona Cardinals (vs. San Francisco 49ers)
When Getting Defensive is as top-heavy as this week’s edition, it generally portends good things for fantasy managers who have been relying on the same defense for multiple weeks. That’s the case with the Cardinals—while fantasy’s No. 1 defense through three weeks cooled off a bit in last week’s big win over the Los Angeles Rams, Sunday brings a home date with a San Francisco 49ers team that will probably be led by a rookie quarterback (Trey Lance) making his first career start. If that’s the case, you know that Vance Joseph will dial up the pressure in an effort to rattle the youngster.
Denver Broncos (at Pittsburgh Steelers)
Over the first three weeks, the Broncos were a top-five fantasy defense—in part because Denver played a trio of tomato cans in the Giants, Jaguars and Jets. Things went south against the Ravens in Week 4, but the cold snap may not last long. The Steelers have been a hot mess on offense through three weeks—Pittsburgh ranks 27th in total offense, dead last in rushing and 28th in scoring offense. The Steelers have surrendered 10 sacks over four games and sit well inside the top-10 in fantasy points allowed to defenses. It has been that kind of year so far in the Steel City.
Carolina Panthers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
Yes, the Carolina Panthers just got a Texas-sized dose of reality—433 yards and 36 points allowed in a loss to the Cowboys that wasn’t as close as the final score. But fantasy managers need to shake that off and roll the Panthers out again in Week 5. Yes, the Eagles have shown the ability to move the ball and score points. But Philly’s offensive line is banged up and will have trouble against Carolina’s pressure looks, and if you get in Jalen Hurts’ face, he sometimes makes unwise decisions. This might not be a smash spot for the Panthers, but they’re a safe play for managers who already rostered them.
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STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Chicago Bears)
The Raiders haven’t exactly piled up fantasy points in 2021—Las Vegas came into Week 4 18th among team defenses and didn’t have a great (or even good) game Monday night against the rival Chargers. However, this has a lot less to do with the Raiders than the team that will be visiting Allegiant Stadium Sunday. Yes, Justin Fields showed some improvement last week against the Lions. But the Bears are still second in the league in sacks allowed (16), last in total offense, 30th in scoring offense and will most likely be without the services of star running back David Montgomery.
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Detroit Lions)
To date this season, the Vikings have been a defensive contradiction—Minnesota is allowing both the eighth-most yards and the 11th-fewest points in the league. They haven’t had much success taking the ball away (two takeaways), but geared by Danielle Hunter Minnesota’s 13 sacks rank fourth in the NFL. Add it all up and you have a middle-of-the-pack fantasy defense. Of course, the Detroit Lions have long had a history of making average defenses look good, and in a game the 1-3 Vikings absolutely have to have to keep their season from falling apart Minnesota should go all out in Week 5.
Atlanta Falcons (vs. New York Jets)
Ah, the London games, how I loathe thee. But my personal feelings about international football aside, there’s some streaming appear to be had with the Falcons in Week 5. It could be that Zach Wilson of the Jets turned a corner in last week’s comeback win over the Tennessee Titans. Or it could be that a rookie quarterback who threw seven interceptions and was sacked 15 times over his first three starts made some hay against a truly terrible Titans defense. This isn’t to say that Atlanta’s defense is especially good. But they should be able to put pressure on the young signal-caller.
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Tennessee Titans)
This is the streamiest streamer that ever streamed a stream. There isn’t a cheaper defense in DFS contests this week at DraftKings than the lowly Jaguars. But consider this—after Sunday’s debacle in the Big Apple, no team in the NFL has allowed more sacks than the 17 the Titans have given up. Only two teams in the league have more giveaways than the seven that Tennessee has amassed. And with both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones on the shelf last week, the Titans sputtered offensively. As desperation plays go, you could do worse.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Los Angeles Rams (at Seattle Seahawks)
It’s not necessarily fair to say the Rams are playing bad defensively—that Los Angeles is allowing the sixth-most yards per game in the league defensively is more likely than not more a function of schedule than performance. Still, the fantasy standings are what they are, and the schedule doesn’t soften up a lot this week against Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf and the Seahawks. The last time the Rams visited Seattle (a 20-9 Seahawks win last December), the Rams had enough big plays to salvage a serviceable fantasy outing. But any breakout performance from the fighting Aaron Donalds will probably have to wait at least one more week.
Cleveland Browns (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
After a sluggish start to the season, the Browns have caught fire defensively of late. After holding the Minnesota Vikings to just 255 total yards and seven points last week, the Browns sit inside the top-five in total defense, scoring defense, run defense, pass defense and sacks. Other than that though, they have just been OK. The problem in Week 5 is that Justin Herbert and the Chargers are coming to town, and after taking care of the Las Vegas Raiders Monday night the Bolts are a 3-1 first-place team playing as well offensively as any club in the NFL.
