After three weeks of USFL ball, the league has given us loads of action and now rotations are starting to stabilize making fantasy predictions a bit easier. DraftKings still gave is solid prize pools this week and there are edges left to be explored from a betting perspective. I’ll be going game by game with notes on each offense’s tendencies and their player usage. You can get a broader view of all of the team in my USFL Team by Team Preview.
Michigan Panthers vs. Philadelphia Stars
Panthers -1 / 36.5 O/U
Quarterbacks
The Panthers won a game by throwing for 71 yards last week. That production and their rushing output were split between two quarterbacks. The only thing worse than a quarterback by committee is a bad quarterback by committee. It’s a full fade for me.
Philly quarterback Bryan Scott appears to be out for a while because of knee and ankle issues. Case Cookus will replace him. Cookus was a dominant FCS quarterback, throwing 105 touchdowns to 21 interceptions while reaching 12,082 passing yards over his lengthy collegiate career. Cookus has spent time with four NFL teams but never made it past training camp. He also has backup reps in Stars head coach Bart Andrus’s offense from his 2021 stint in The Spring League. Given the Stars’ league-leading, 69 percent pass rate, Cookus is viable for cash games at $6,500.
Running Backs
The Panthers giving Reggie Corbin 20 carries for 133 yards and a touchdown after listing him as inactive last week was simply a transcendent experience. The rest of Michigan’s backfield account for 18 carries. I like the Stars to win this game outright, as they have scored 21 more points than Michigan and the Panthers’ only win came against the league’s worst team. Because of that, the Michigan backfield could be at risk of a decreased workload compared to their 24-0 win from Week 3.
Darnell Holland remains out for the Stars and Matt Colburn has been playing a reduced role while dealing with a knee issue. That led to Paul Terry seeing six carries and nine targets last week. Philly’s pass-first approach keeps Terry out of the cash conversation, though he could be a game-changer for tournaments.
Wide Receivers
Lance Lenoir leads the league with a 34 percent target share and his cut of the targets has gone up every week since the opener. Devin Ross is running a route on nearly every passing play for the Panthers as their clear WR2. Both can be used as run-backs for Stars stacks, though that strategy may be less necessary in the USFL.
Jordan Suell played every snap and led the Stars’ receivers and tight ends with five targets. He was the only Philly player to see more than 39 air yards. Diondre Overton was also a mainstay of the rotation and even led the Stars in targets thrown by Cookus.
Stars target shares on Case Cookus attempts:
— Kyle Dvorchak (@kyletweetshere) May 5, 2022
Bug Howard - 15%
Jordan Suell - 10%
Paul Terry - 25%
Devin Gray - 20%
Diondre Overton - 20%
New Jersey Generals vs. Pittsburgh Maulers
Generals -9.5 / 35.5 O/U
Quarterbacks
The Generals have continued to split their quarterback reps and it has worked out well so far. I won’t be playing either because there are quarterbacks who play every down in this league, but De’Andre Johnson is “built different” as the kids say.
USFL New Jersey Generals QB De'Andre Johnson leads the league in yards per carry (6.4) *and* yards per attempt (10.8). Has forced 8 missed tackles; rest of the league's quarterbacks have 5 combined.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 4, 2022
Pittsburgh also runs a quarterback rotation, except this one doesn’t work. They are last in points scored by a wide margin and have an ineffective passing attack no matter who is under center. This team showed some promise with a close game in Week 2, but last week’s drubbing puts them back in full fade territory.
Running Back
Trey Williams is fifth in the USFL in rush attempts (41) and fourth in rushing yards (198). He also has a target share approaching 20 percent. Williams is a lock in cash games.
Garrett Groshek finally gave way to Madre London last week. London earned one more carry plus seven targets. That was more targets than Groshek has earned in all three weeks combined. London plays for a horrible team, but the dual-threat role keeps him in play.
Wide Receivers
Three Generals players saw five targets last week and another pair saw three targets. KaVontae Turpin is pacing the team with a 17 percent target share but that is the lowest target share for a receiving leading his squad. Turpin also gets the occasional rush attempt. Alonzo Moore and Darius Shepherd topped the team in routes last week, but neither caught a pass. Beyond Turpin, this unit can be forgotten about.
With Bailey Gaither active but playing zero snaps last week, the Maulers’ receiver rotation was in flux. Tre Walker led the team in routes and earned six targets. He managed a 5/58 line. No other Pittsburgh wideout had a route rate over 75 percent. Gaither is expected to be inactive this week.
Birmingham Stallions vs. Tampa Bay Bandits
Stallions -3.5 / 41.5 O/U
Quarterbacks
Per usual, J’mar Smith put in work last week, tossing two scores while also rushing for 57 yards on eight carries. Smith is second in passing yards and third in yards per attempt among the starting quarterbacks. He has never scored fewer than 17.5 fantasy points and is the QB1 of the week. The only ding on Smith is that he is dealing with an illness and Alex McGough, the team’s Week 1 starter, will be active. If Smith is healthy, it makes no sense to even rotate him with McGough given how well Smith has played. However, USFL teams have not been known for their perfect decision-making, so there is some risk with Smith.
Jordan Ta’amu struggled for two games but found his groove in Week 3. He passed for 255 yards at 7.1 yards per attempt which was easily the best mark of his season. He also scored a rushing touchdown. Ta’amu’s early-season struggles make him a risky DFS option, but he is back in play as a viable tournament quarterback.
Running Backs
The Stallions gave CJ Marable more than half of their total carries for the first time last week. With Smith accounting for plenty of rushes as a quarterback, Marable actually ran circles around Tony Brooks-James. Marable also tallied six targets. Marable’s $6,600 tag on DraftKings is far too low for his all-purpose role.
Tampa Bay made Juwan Washington their top back last week, giving him 15 carries to B.J. Emmons’ nine. Ta’amu is a threat to vulture rushing scores and now the backfield is in flux. It’s reasonable to write this group off as a fade, though Washington has an outside chance at a good week if he gets in the end zone.
Wide Receivers
Victor Bolden has one game below a 33 percent target share and that was still a 26 percent outing. He has 25 targets over the past two weeks and should be considered the WR1. Marlon Williams and Osirus Mitchell both ran routes on 80 percent of the team’s dropbacks as well. Williams saw six targets and was highly productive at UCF, giving him a talent profile to fall back on. Tight end Cary Angeline saw eight targets for 122 air yards but will be inactive because of an injury for Week 4. Sage Surratt was called up to replace him. Surratt was a receiver in college and topped 1,000 yards as a sophomore.
The Bandits used John Franklin and Derrick Dillon as their starting duo. Both receivers and Vinny Papale, a secondary option for the team, saw six targets. Dillon made the most of his looks on this play and could have been a contributor at LSU if he wasn’t buried behind some of the NFL’s best receivers in college.
Derrick Dillon for 6 #USFL pic.twitter.com/1D9hRLlGfk
— USFL Gambling Podcast (@USFLGambling) April 30, 2022
New Orleans Breakers vs. Houston Gamblers
Breakers -4.5 / 41.5 O/U
Quarterbacks
Kyle Sloter is topping the charts with 657 passing yards. He has thrown two passing touchdowns in back-to-back games and gets a Gamblers defense that is last in the league in points allowed. Sloter remains an elite fantasy option this week.
The Gamblers have run the fewest plays in the league and are the second-worst offense by EPA per play. Facing one of the better teams, it’s hard to see them putting up much of a fight. I have the Breakers covering the 4.5-point spread this week. Thorson doesn’t offer value as a runner and is seventh in pass attempts per game. He has been efficient enough to support his wideouts but isn’t in play as a DFS option.
Running Backs
New Orleans lost T.J. Logan for Week 3 and gave Jordan Ellis 25 carries plus four targets. Larry Rose may get more work in his second active week, but Ellis is in the upper echelon of usage with Logan out against this week.
Mark Thompson saw 77 percent of Houston’s carries last week and looked like one of the league’s best backs. He ran for 147 yards and currently holds the rushing crown by a considerable margin.
Wide Receivers
The Breakers a clear top trio of receivers last week:
- Johnnie Dixon - 10 targets
- Shawn Poindexter - 9
- Jonathan Adams - 5
Tight end Sal Cannella also earned 10 targets. I’ll be fading Dixon coming off a 7/86/2 line in favor of Cannella and Poindexter, who saw similar volume.
Tyler Simmons has 16 targets over the past two weeks. He only has six catches, but we should be fine chasing the volume with him. Isaiah Zuber remained the Gamblers’ WR1 by routes run despite seeing just three targets. Zuber got on the field for the Patriots in 2020, which gives him a better NFL pedigree than most players in the USFL.
