Monday Night Football
New England @ Buffalo
Team Totals: Patriots 29, Bills 15
The Bills are a weekly attack target for D/STs; ex-Rotoworlder Mike Clay noted this week that defenses facing Buffalo have logged top-three fantasy finishes in 5-of-7 weeks. Now quarterbacked by 35-year-old statue Derek Anderson, Buffalo has scored 13 points or fewer in 5-of-7 games. Anderson committed four Week 7 turnovers and should have thrown four picks, yet Colts DL Margus Hunt dropped No. 4. Anderson struggled with back and calf injuries during the practice week. … The subject of trade rumors and concussed last week, LeSean McCoy looks unlikely to face New England. Chris Ivory logged 19 touches off the bench in Week 7 and 23 when McCoy missed Week 3 against the Vikings, giving Ivory volume-driven RB2 appeal versus a soft Pats defense that has yielded a 141/628/2 (4.45 YPC) rushing line and the league’s fourth-most receiving yards (427) to enemy backs. … Anderson’s Week 7 target distribution: Ivory and Marcus Murphy 6; Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones, and Charles Clay 5; Andre Holmes and Jason Croom 2. … Between Carolina and Buffalo, Benjamin’s four career stat lines in Anderson starts are 6/92/1 – 8/104/0 – 5/70/0 – 4/71/0. Unfortunately, Benjamin is sure to draw Stephon Gilmore, who shut down Allen Robinson (1/4/0) last week and has allowed just 6-of-18 (33.3%) targets against him to be complete for 51 scoreless yards (2.83 YPA) in the last month -- true shutdown-cornerback territory. … Jones has fewer than 40 yards in 6-of-7 games. … Clay is scoreless in 18 straight.
Buffalo’s stingy defense is a theoretical obstacle for the white-hot Patriots, having allowed the NFL’s fourth-fewest yards per play (5.1) and 22 points or fewer in four of its last five games. Yet Sean McDermott’s defense played at an even higher 2017 level and got pasted twice by Bill Belichick’s team, 23-3 and 37-16. … Tom Brady’s 2017 yardage/touchdown/interception totals versus Buffalo underwhelmed at 258/0/1 and 224/2/1, although this year’s Patriots have flashed signs of becoming an unstoppable force with consecutive point totals of 38 – 38 – 43 – 38. Andrew Luck dropped last week’s QB5 result on these same Bills, who will be without No. 2 pass rusher Trent Murphy (knee). … Sony Michel’s latest knee injury thrusts James White into New England’s feature back role after White set a Week 7 career high in carries (11) on season highs in snaps (70%) and touches (19). Now a team captain and more trusted than ever, White’s draw is mouth watering versus a Bills Defense that has allowed nine all-purpose running back TDs in seven games. White leads all non-Saquon Barkley backs in targets (61), catches (45), and receiving yards (380). He also leads the Pats in red-zone targets (11) and targets inside the ten (5). White juked Bears OLB Leonard Floyd out of his jock on one of last week’s two receiving TDs and led New England in targets for the fifth time in seven games. His second TD came on a jet-action pass – really a handoff – from Brady … Kenjon Barner offers desperation dart-throw appeal after logging ten carries in Week 7’s one-score win over Chicago. Barner has 16 rushes on 32 snaps as a Patriot but has not drawn a single target.
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Rob Gronkowski is slated to return from back spasms to face his hometown team. Beginning with most recent, the Buffalo native’s seven career stat lines at New Era Field are 9/147/0 - 5/109/1 - 7/113/1 - 7/94/0 - 5/104/1 - 7/109/2 - 4/54/2. … Julian Edelman’s target counts since coming off suspension are 9 – 7 -- 8. In only three games, Edelman already ranks second on the Patriots in red-zone targets (7) and targets inside the ten (4). Edelman is an opponent-agnostic WR2. … Josh Gordon set Week 7 season highs in playing time (95%) and production (4/100/0) in last week’s win over the Bears, while Brady demonstrated trust in Gordon on a contested fourth-down 21-yard gain. Later, Gordon’s big-play ability shined on a 55-yard catch and run. Gordon figures to draw Tre’Davious White’s Week 8 shadow coverage, although fellow No. 1 WRs Adam Thielen (14/105/0), Davante Adams (8/81/0), DeAndre Hopkins (5/63/1), John Brown (3/44/1), and T.Y. Hilton (4/25/2) have all delivered against Buffalo. … Last week was Hogan’s first above five targets (7), yet he’s been targeted in the red zone just twice. Hogan’s probability of more scoring-position usage lessens with Gronkowski back. … Phillip Dorsett ran 3 and 7 routes compared to 32 and 32 for Hogan in Weeks 6-7, while Cordarrelle Patterson’s route counts were 3 and 3. Among New England’s role-player complementary pass catchers, Hogan remains our best bet.
Score Prediction: Patriots 34, Bills 7
