We’re in the thick of the NFL offseason and it’s officially time to start fantasy football prep. I’ll be answering the biggest questions heading into the 2020 season. Click here to read the series of questions answered so far.
The Colts drafted T.Y. Hilton in the third round of the 2012 draft. Since then he’s established himself as one of just 12 players to average at least 70 receiving yards per game. The highs of the era were breathtaking, notably a 13-224-2 explosion in the Colts’ comeback 2013 Wild Card victory over the Chiefs. Plenty of perfectly-executed shot plays from Andrew Luck have made Hilton one of the league’s most-dangerous WRs for the better part of the last decade.
However, things haven’t been quite as hot for Hilton in recent years. He missed just one game from 2012-2017, but has been sidelined for eight games over the past two seasons. 2018 (76-1,270-6) was a return to form for Hilton, but 2019 (45-501-5) wasn’t pretty in terms of both total numbers and per-target efficiency.
Now Philip Rivers is under center behind arguably the best offensive line of his career. Hilton *should* enter the 2020 season as healthy as any 30-year-old WR can be. What follows is a breakdown on what to expect from Hilton and the Colts’ passing game in 2020.
Hilton has some alarming career splits
Peak Hilton wasn’t a product of Luck; he possessed a combination of route-running ability and field-stretching speed that made him capable of twisting up even the league’s finest corners.
Would be fun if Philip Rivers/no injuries brings back the Andrew Luck version of T.Y. Hiltonpic.twitter.com/Z3BndHG2cG
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 29, 2020
The problem from a fantasy football perspective is that Hilton has functioned as a shell of himself in terms of per-game production without Luck under center:
- Hilton with Luck (82 games): 15.5 PPR, 5 receptions, 79.3 yards, 0.4 TD, 8.5 targets
- Without (36 games): 11.6 PPR, 4 receptions, 58.3 yards, 0.3 TD, 7 targets
Hilton is hardly the first elite WR to put up worse numbers without their stud QB. Hilton’s sample without Luck is also heavily weighted by Jacoby Brissett specifically. I do enjoy Brissett’s ability to extend plays, but he’s hardly a pin-point passer. Only the Panthers (25%) had a lower percentage of catchable deep ball targets (20-plus yards downfield) than the Colts (31%) in 2019 (PFF).
Still, there’s another split that managed to trip up Hilton even during his days with Luck. We’ve simply seen a different receiver when the Colts aren’t playing indoors:
- Hilton indoors (73 games): 15.4 PPR, 5 receptions, 80.6 yards, 0.4 TD, 8.3 targets
- Outdoors (45 games): 12.2 PPR, 4.2 receptions, 60.3 yards, 0.3 TD, 7.6 targets
Hilton’s home/away splits aren’t quite as severe because they don’t include Hilton’s yearly demolition jobs at NRG Stadium against the Texans. Never forget that Hilton literally wore a clown mask to Houston before leaving with a playoff victory.
Home/away splits tend to be overrated. Play your great players. Still, the QB splits are a bit more concerning, particularly when considering that Hilton hasn’t exactly been a model of good health over the past two seasons.
The good news is Hilton should have every opportunity to function as his passing game’s undisputed No. 1 target for as long as he’s on the field in 2020.
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Rivers’ pecking order is wide open for interpretation ... behind Hilton
We are 100% sure that Hilton is the Colts’ No. 1 pass-game option. Just ask OC Nick Sirianni:
“He’s still the main piece of this offense... T.Y. Hilton is who this pass offense runs through. Things will be schemed to get him the football. I know he’s worked hard on his body and worked hard through the offseason. He’s our guy. He’s our lead dog. He’s our alpha dog. And if he stays healthy, the sky’s the limit again for him.”
This is both Sirianni paying homage to Hilton’s long-time status as the No. 1 pass-game option in this offense as well as reflecting on the reality that the Colts aren’t exactly overflowing with proven pass-catchers. The four primary candidates to join Hilton in three-WR sets are:
- Second-round pick Michael Pittman, who possesses a fantasy-friendly combination of reliable hands and contested-catch ability. Pittman might not have blazing speed, but he does have size (6-foot-4 and 223-pounds) that is missing from this Colts Offense. Like Vikings rookie WR Justin Jefferson, Pittman has an underrated opportunity to lead his offense in receiving scores in 2020.
- Parris Campbell, who was the team’s 2019 second-round pick. He flashed some tantalizing speed as a rookie, but ultimately had just 22 touches in his seven-game injury-shortened campaign. Campbell is expected to see plenty of slot work alongside Hilton. There should be a driven effort to get Campbell touches in space; he has a real chance to finish second on this offense in targets.
- Former undrafted free agent Zach Pascal, who functioned as the offense’s No. 1 WR for stretches of 2019. He performed admirably, averaging a fine 8.4 yards per target and gaining at least 50 yards in six games. Still, Pascal gained 10 or fewer yards in seven games and figures to be this offense’s No. 4 WR as early as Week 1.
- Fellow former undrafted free agent Marcus Johnson, who was an every-week starter by the end of 2019. He averaged a robust 16.3 yards per reception and emerged as a legit field-stretching talent. He could theoretically function as Rivers’ 2020 version of Travis Benjamin.
Jack Doyle and Trey Burton join Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines and Jonathan Taylor as additional threats to steal targets, but none of those TEs or RBs are in a position to dominate snaps or targets.
Rivers knows all about enabling a high-end WR1; Keenan Allen racked up 159, 136 and 149 targets in the 2017-2019 seasons, respectively. We certainly didn’t see a high-level version of Rivers in 2020, but he still managed to enable Allen to a PPR WR6 finish.
Add it all together and ...
Hilton is a solid investment at his current mid-round value
We’re seeing a bit of volatility in regards to Hilton’s average draft position at the moment. He’s going around the PPR WR20 position in re-draft formats, but closer to the WR24-28 range in best-ball leagues. Obviously cheaper is always better, but Hilton doesn’t appear to be a troublesome investment at either valuation.
Going from Brissett to Rivers is anyone’s idea of an upgrade under center. Despite this and the potential for even slightly better health, Hilton remains at his cheapest in years:
- 2019: PPR WR21 in re-draft leagues
- 2018: WR12
- 2017: WR13
- 2016: WR17
- 2015: WR10
- 2014: WR24
- 2013: WR29
It’s probably not wise to take Hilton over rising young studs like A.J. Brown, Courtland Sutton, Terry McLaurin, DeVante Parker, DK Metcalf or D.J. Chark considering both the age difference as well as their continuity under center. Still, Hilton deserves to be considered alongside the likes of Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs and A.J. Green in the tier of potential/likely No. 1 pass-game targets that face new-found questions under center.
We’re just two seasons removed from Hilton functioning as the PPR WR14. Even 2019 wasn’t all bad; Hilton had five total scores in his first five games before playing limited snaps during the final month of the season while attempting to play through the pain.
Hilton is returning from a calf injury that didn’t require surgery. This is a contract year, meaning a vintage performance could help Hilton tie down one final long-term deal. I wouldn’t bet on Hilton finishing 2020 as a top-12 WR, but that’s certainly in his range of outcomes, and his price is low enough on the WR2 borderline to warrant consideration for drafters that choose to load up on RBs in the early rounds.
